As of early afternoon on 4 December 2025, Telstra Group Limited (ASX: TLS) shares are trading around A$4.88, down slightly on the day but still up roughly 22% over the past 12 months. The stock sits in the middle of its A$3.84–A$5.14 52‑week range, with a market value of about A$55.3 billion and a trailing dividend yield just under 4%. [1]
That’s a solid run for a supposedly boring telco. Behind it is a mix of sharply higher profits, a growing dividend, a fresh A$1 billion share buyback, new AI and fibre ambitions, and some very real regulatory headaches.
This piece walks through Telstra’s share price, latest news (including fresh updates on 4 December 2025), dividend outlook, analyst forecasts for 2026, and the key risks investors should be thinking about.
Telstra share price today: a low‑volatility income giant
Live market data shows: [2]
- Share price: ~A$4.875 (Dec 4, 2025, 1:17 pm AEST)
- Day move: −0.71%
- 1‑year performance:+21.9%
- Market cap:A$55.34 billion
- Revenue (TTM):A$23.13 billion
- Net income (TTM):A$2.17 billion
- EPS (TTM):A$0.19
- P/E ratio: ~26.1x (forward P/E ~24.1x)
- Dividend (TTM):A$0.19 per share (yield ~3.9%)
- 52‑week range:A$3.84 – A$5.14
- Beta: ~0.16 (i.e. much less volatile than the broader market)
So Telstra is trading like a defensive growth / income stock: not cheap, not hyper‑growth, but relatively steady with a payout that matters.
The very latest news (4 December 2025): buyback, income angles and sentiment
1. Buyback update: 1.77 million shares repurchased
A new buyback progress update released through the ASX and picked up by TipRanks today confirms Telstra has bought back 1,765,856 ordinary shares in the market, as part of its ongoing on‑market repurchase program. [3]
Key details from that update and earlier disclosures:
- Telstra is running a A$1 billion on‑market buyback announced with its FY25 results, on top of a A$750 million program completed earlier in 2025. TS2 Tech
- The latest batch of repurchases shrinks the share count further, supporting EPS growth even if revenue remains fairly flat. [4]
- TipRanks’ snapshot also notes a recent analyst rating of “Hold” with a A$4.80 price target and a “Buy” technical sentiment, underlining the idea that the stock is widely seen as solid but not screamingly cheap. [5]
In short: capital returns are doing a lot of the heavy lifting in Telstra’s equity story right now.
2. “Retiree’s dream” narrative gains traction
A fresh Motley Fool Australia article published today explicitly frames Telstra as a “retiree’s dream”, arguing that: [6]
- the stock offers reliable, fully‑franked dividends,
- Telstra operates with relatively low share‑price volatility, and
- it plays nicely as a core income holding in an Australian retiree portfolio.
The piece reflects a broader local sentiment: Telstra has become one of those “sleep‑at‑night” stocks many Australians own either directly or via ETFs and superannuation funds. For example:
- Telstra is about 2.1% of the SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ETF (ASX: STW) and around 0.8% of the Vanguard Diversified High Growth Index ETF (ASX: VDHG). [7]
That widespread ownership helps provide deep liquidity and some price support, but it also means Telstra is already in a lot of portfolios by default.
3. Rask Media: Telstra among “2 ASX shares to dig into”
Also today, Rask Media highlighted Telstra and Qantas as two ASX shares “to dig into”, bringing Telstra back into the spotlight for fundamental investors. [8]
While details are behind a paywall, the article’s framing aligns with recent institutional coverage: Telstra is being looked at as a core holding with:
- Defensive cash flows from mobile and fixed connectivity,
- A steadily rising dividend, and
- Upside optionality from its fibre and AI infrastructure strategy.
4. Regional service issues remain a background risk
On the same day, a local NSW news piece flagged continuing telecommunications issues for farmers, with roadshows set up to help communities navigate poor coverage and reliability. [9]
While the article references the broader telco ecosystem rather than Telstra alone, it reinforces a long‑running theme: regional network performance and customer experience remain politically sensitive and can feed into regulatory pressure and brand perception.
FY25 results: modest revenue growth, big jump in profit
For the financial year ended 30 June 2025, Telstra pulled off a neat trick: almost flat revenue, sharply higher profit.
Based on company filings and independent data: [10]
- Revenue: ~A$23.13 billion, up just 0.9% from ~A$22.93b.
- Net profit: about A$2.17 billion, up roughly 34% year‑on‑year.
- EPS: around A$0.19, in line with earlier analyst forecasts. [11]
- Underlying EBITDA / cash metrics: management points to EBITDA after leases (EBITDAaL) around A$8.0 billion, with guidance for A$8.15–8.45 billion in FY26 — a mid‑single‑digit uplift. TS2 Tech
What drove the profit surge?
TS2 Tech’s deep‑dive and Reuters coverage highlight several factors: TS2 Tech+1
- Price rises on many mobile and fixed‑line plans (often A$3–5 per month) pushed average revenue per user (ARPU) higher.
- Subscriber growth in mobile and fixed connectivity helped support the top line.
- Aggressive cost‑cutting, including the removal of roughly 3,200 roles, took the workforce to about 30,553 employees and improved margins. TS2 Tech+1
- A reduction in one‑off restructuring charges vs the prior year boosted the headline profit growth rate. TS2 Tech
Simply Wall St boils this down to about 10% compound annual EPS growth over the last three years, despite fairly flat revenue and EBIT margins — signalling that cost control, capital returns and mix shift are doing a lot of the work. [12]
Insiders have noticed too: over the last 12 months, Telstra insiders bought around A$580k of shares, including a large A$419k purchase by non‑executive director David Lamont, and collectively hold about A$55m of stock. [13]
Dividends: a slow‑and‑steady income ladder
Telstra’s dividend story is exactly the sort of thing income investors like to see.
1. Where the dividend stands today
- Total FY25 dividend:A$0.19 per share, up 5.6% on the prior year. [14]
- That 19 cents per share, on today’s ~A$4.88 price, gives a trailing cash yield of about 3.9%, before franking credits. [15]
- The final 9.5c dividend went ex‑dividend on 27 August 2025 and was paid on 25 September 2025. TS2 Tech+1
Dividend tracking sites and Telstra disclosures show a gentle upward staircase:
- 2022: 16c
- 2023: 17c
- 2024: 18c
- 2025: 19c TS2 Tech+1
The payout ratio is high: roughly 98–100% of earnings on current numbers, which is comfortable for a stable telco but leaves limited margin for error if profits dip. [16]
2. Broker forecasts out to 2026–2028
Brokers are generally expecting the dividend to keep creeping higher:
- One widely‑cited forecast has Telstra paying around 21c per share in FY26, rising to ~22–23c in FY27, implying a mid‑4% yield at today’s price, plus franking. [17]
That’s hardly explosive, but combined with buybacks it adds up to a meaningful total shareholder return if the earnings base holds or grows.
This is a big part of why today’s Motley Fool piece leans into the “retiree’s dream” framing: a fully‑franked, carefully‑growing dividend from a dominant, low‑beta utility‑like business is exactly what many Australian income investors hunt for. [18]
Analyst ratings and 2026 price targets: cautiously positive
Aggregate data from several platforms paints a picture of measured optimism rather than wild enthusiasm:
- MarketScreener: consensus rating “Outperform” from ~14 analysts, with an average 12‑month target around A$4.91, a high near A$5.40 and a low around A$4.20. TS2 Tech
- Fintel: slightly higher average target of ~A$5.01, with a range roughly A$4.24–A$5.67. TS2 Tech
- TradingView and others: most broker targets cluster in the A$4.80–A$5.20 band. TS2 Tech+1
- TipRanks: the latest individual rating flagged is a “Hold” with a A$4.80 target, essentially where the stock already trades. [19]
Back in February 2025, Simply Wall St summarised consensus forecasts pointing to revenue of about A$23.8b and EPS of 19c for 2025 — numbers Telstra has roughly delivered — and flagged 29% EPS growth vs the previous year. [20]
Put all that together and, as of 4 December 2025, the average analyst sees only modest upside (~1–5%) from today’s price, but with downside also limited unless something breaks in regulation, competition or execution.
Strategy: from “T25” to “Connected Future 30”, AI and fibre
Telstra is trying very hard not to be “just a telco”.
1. T25: the finished chapter
The now‑completed “T25” strategy focused on: TS2 Tech+1
- network leadership,
- cost reduction,
- more predictable financial growth, and
- better customer experience.
Management claims it exceeded most targets, including metrics for underlying EBITDA, EPS, return on invested capital and cost savings.
2. “Connected Future 30”: the new playbook
The successor strategy, “Connected Future 30”, runs through to 2030 and leans heavily into three themes: TS2 Tech+2Telstra.com+2
- Network & infrastructure investment
- Around A$12.4 billion invested in the mobile network over seven years, including A$4.7b in regional areas.
- 5G coverage now reaches roughly 95% of the Australian population via more than 6,500 sites. [21]
- An ongoing A$1.6 billion intercity fibre program (FY23–FY27) is aimed at linking key data‑centre hubs and supporting AI and cloud workloads. TS2 Tech
- AI, cloud and data‑centre ecosystem
- Telstra is explicitly pitching its intercity fibre program as a “bid for AI riches”, and has hired a former Microsoft ANZ head to lead its infrastructure division. [22]
- The idea: become the connectivity backbone for hyperscalers, data centres and enterprises deploying AI at scale.
- Portfolio reshaping and partnerships
- Sale of certain Telstra International wholesale voice, mobile and messaging contracts to iBASIS, narrowing the focus onto higher‑margin services. TS2 Tech
- A joint venture with Infosys involving a majority stake sale in cloud‑focused Versent, with proceeds helping to fund the A$1b buyback while keeping exposure to cloud and AI services. TS2 Tech
- In healthcare, Telstra Health is part of a consortium that won a major contract to digitise Australia’s health records system, further extending Telstra’s reach beyond classic telco lines. [23]
3. Network quality: “Best in Test” and satellite messaging
Network performance remains a key part of the moat:
- On 2 December 2025, Telstra announced it had again been awarded umlaut’s “Best in Test” mobile network ranking for 2025, for the eighth consecutive year, scoring “Best in Test” overall as well as Best in Data, Voice, Crowdsourced Quality and Reliability, with its highest score ever. [24]
- Telstra has also begun rolling out satellite‑to‑mobile text messaging for eligible devices, targeting remote areas that previously had no coverage at all. [25]
These help justify Telstra’s premium positioning and pricing, but they also require substantial ongoing capex.
Risks: regulation, reputation and payout tension
No stock is a free lunch, and Telstra’s recent history is a reminder of that.
1. Regulatory pressure and fines
In October 2025, a Federal Court decision publicised by Reuters saw Telstra hit with an A$18 million penalty for lowering internet speed plans for about 9,000 customers without properly informing them. [26]
Other recent headlines include:
- Government scrutiny of triple‑zero emergency call reliability, with Telstra and rivals grilled on their obligations after outages and routing failures. [27]
- Concerns over cybersecurity and data protection, including an extortion attempt via a Salesforce‑related hack, which Telstra says did not involve a breach of its own systems. [28]
These stories matter because they can translate directly into:
- Fines and remediation costs,
- Extra compliance and infrastructure spending, and
- Constraints on future price rises if regulators decide enough is enough.
2. Capital intensity and execution risk
Telstra’s plan to spend billions on fibre, 5G and AI‑adjacent infrastructure is strategically sensible, but it raises the classic question:
Can a largely mature telco earn high enough returns on this new capex while paying out nearly all its earnings as dividends and buying back stock?
If margins disappoint or demand is weaker than hoped, those big projects could dilute returns instead of enhancing them.
3. Competition and churn
While Telstra enjoys network quality leadership, it still faces:
- Price competition from Optus, TPG and smaller MVNOs,
- Ongoing discounting and bundling in broadband and mobile, and
- The risk that regulators push harder for wholesale access or pricing constraints.
So far, Telstra has managed to raise prices and grow ARPU, but there’s a limit to how often that trick can be repeated without pushing customers into cheaper alternatives. TS2 Tech
4. Dividend and buyback sustainability
With a payout ratio close to 100% and ongoing buybacks, Telstra is sending a very friendly cheque to shareholders — but it doesn’t leave much slack in the system. [29]
Any combination of:
- unexpected regulatory costs,
- a cyclical downturn in enterprise spending, or
- a mis‑timed capex wave
could force management to slow dividend growth, shrink buybacks, or take on more debt.
How Telstra fits into a portfolio as of December 2025
Mechanically, Telstra already sits in a lot of Australian portfolios because it’s a top‑10 holding in major ASX 200 ETFs and large super funds. For instance, AustralianSuper has been reported buying roughly A$1 billion worth of Telstra and Medibank stakes in recent months, shifting its exposure toward more defensive names. [30]
The profile as of 4 December 2025 looks roughly like this:
- Role:
- A core defensive / income holding, rather than a speculative growth play.
- Return drivers:
- 3.8–4.0% cash yield (higher once franked),
- modest dividend growth (1–2 cents every year or two),
- occasional re‑rating as the market reassesses regulatory risk, and
- buyback‑driven EPS growth.
- Valuation:
- About 26x trailing earnings and 24x forward, with consensus price targets clustering only slightly above the current share price. [31]
Reasons investors might like Telstra here:
- Dominant position in Australian mobile and fixed‑line markets. [32]
- Proven ability to turn flat revenue into growing profit via cost control and capital returns. TS2 Tech+1
- A long and improving dividend history with franking benefits. [33]
- Network quality validated by independent testing (umlaut “Best in Test” 2025). [34]
- Exposure to AI, cloud and digital health themes through infrastructure and Telstra Health. TS2 Tech+1
Reasons for caution:
- Premium valuation versus many global telcos, despite modest top‑line growth. [35]
- Regulatory and reputational risk (fines, emergency call obligations, cyber issues). [36]
- Very high payout ratio, leaving limited cushion for surprises. [37]
- Heavy dependence on continued cost‑cutting and buybacks rather than robust revenue growth. TS2 Tech+1
Bottom line: Telstra stock on 4 December 2025
As of 4 December 2025, Telstra looks like a mature, cash‑generative telco that has:
- executed well on its recent strategy,
- nudged its dividend higher again,
- embarked on another A$1b buyback, and
- positioned itself to benefit from AI‑driven data and cloud demand through fibre and network investments. TS2 Tech+1
The price you pay for that stability is a mid‑20s earnings multiple and a sub‑4% cash yield, with analyst targets indicating only modest capital upside from here unless Telstra can surprise positively on growth or regulation turns out friendlier than feared. [38]
For growth‑hungry investors, Telstra is unlikely to be the next 10‑bagger. For income‑focused, volatility‑averse investors, it remains one of the ASX names most commonly used as a quasi‑infrastructure bond with franking credits attached.
Either way, the decision sits in that familiar triangle of income, risk tolerance and time horizon.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.fool.com.au, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.raskmedia.com.au, 9. moreeonlinenews.com.au, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. simplywall.st, 12. simplywall.st, 13. simplywall.st, 14. www.telstra.com.au, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.fool.com.au, 18. www.fool.com.au, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. www.telstra.com.au, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.biometricupdate.com, 24. www.telstra.com.au, 25. www.telstra.com.au, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.telstra.com.au, 34. www.telstra.com.au, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. stockanalysis.com
