Telstra (ASX:TLS) Share Price, Dividend and Outlook: What Investors Need to Know on 11 December 2025

Published: 11 December 2025

Telstra Group Limited (ASX:TLS) remains one of the most closely watched stocks on the ASX 200, sitting at the crossroads of three big themes: defensive income, digital infrastructure, and an increasingly heavy regulatory spotlight.

As of Thursday, 11 December 2025, Telstra’s share price is trading around A$4.89–4.90, leaving the stock roughly 21% higher year to date, after a strong run driven by earnings growth, higher dividends, and a multi‑billion‑dollar buyback. ^[1]

At the same time, investors are digesting fresh news on customer terms changes that take effect today, ongoing share repurchases, a recent A$18 million court penalty, and intense scrutiny over triple‑zero emergency call failures. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at Telstra’s latest share price performance, fundamentals, strategy, risks and the current spread of analyst forecasts as at 11 December 2025.

Telstra share price today and 2025 performance

Last price (11 Dec 2025): about A$4.89–4.90
Day range: roughly A$4.87–4.92
52‑week range: about A$3.84 (low) to A$5.14 (high) ^[3]
Market capitalisation: ~A$55 billion ^[4]

Data from multiple price providers shows Telstra closing on A$4.89 on 10–11 December and trading intra‑day very close to that level. ^[5]

Motley Fool Australia estimated that Telstra shares were up roughly 21–21.3% in calendar 2025 as of early December, underscoring a solid year for a traditionally “boring” defensive stock. ^[6]

On valuation:

Trailing P/E: about 26x earnings
Forward P/E: around 24–25x
Price‑to‑sales (ttm): ~2.5x ^[7]

Telstra paid A$0.19 per share in ordinary dividends in FY25, implying a trailing cash yield of roughly 3.8–3.9% at the current share price, before taking franking credits into account. ^[8]

For a large, government‑influenced telco with moderate earnings growth, that combination of a high‑20s P/E and sub‑4% yield is central to the current debate about whether Telstra is reasonably priced or fully valued.

FY25 results: profit jump, stronger cash flow and higher dividends

Telstra’s FY25 results (year to 30 June 2025) marked a clear step‑up in earnings and cash generation:

Total income: ~A$23.6 billion, up slightly on the prior year
Underlying EBITDA: ~A$8.6 billion, up about 4.6%
Reported EBITDA:A$8.6 billion, up more than 14%, helped by lower restructuring charges
Net profit after tax (NPAT): around A$2.3 billion, up ~31%
Earnings per share:19.1 cents, up 3.2%
Cash EPS:22.4 cents, up 12%
Dividend per share:19.0 cents, up 5.6% on FY24 ^[9]

Earnings growth was driven largely by:

Mobile: solid service‑revenue growth on the back of earlier price rises and customer growth.
Fixed consumer & small business: margin expansion as price increases rolled through.
Infrastructure (InfraCo Fixed and towers arm Amplitel): growing contractual NBN income and tower demand. ^[10]

Operating expenses fell by about 1.4% on an underlying basis thanks to ongoing cost‑out programs, including job reductions. ^[11]

On cash flow, free cash flow after leases (before “strategic investment”) rose to around A$3.43 billion, up nearly 6%, providing room for both higher dividends and share buybacks. ^[12]

FY26 guidance: modest growth, disciplined capex

Telstra’s guidance for FY26 (the year to June 2026) is deliberately conservative but still growth‑positive:

Underlying EBITDA after leases (EBITDAaL):A$8.15–8.45 billion (up from A$8.02b in FY25)
Business‑as‑usual capex:A$3.2–3.5 billion
Cash EBIT:A$4.55–4.75 billion
Strategic investment capex:A$0.3–0.5 billion ^[13]

The company reiterates that it does not provide formal guidance beyond the current financial year, but the broader “Connected Future 30” strategy is built around delivering mid‑single‑digit compound annual growth in cash earnings from FY25 to FY30, with a commitment to a “sustainable and growing dividend.” ^[14]

Strategy update: Connected Future 30 and the A$1.6b Aura Network

In May 2025, Telstra unveiled Connected Future 30, a five‑year strategic plan out to 2030. The plan doubles down on:

Core connectivity (mobile, fixed, NBN, subsea),
AI‑enabled, programmable networks, and
Personalised, data‑driven customer experiences, including heavy automation in service and operations. ^[15]

A key pillar is the A$1.6 billion Intercity Fibre “Aura Network”, a new national backbone designed for AI‑era data volumes. In October 2025 Telstra launched the Sydney–Melbourne coastal route, delivering simulated capacities of up to 83.6 Tbps over approximately 1,200 km of fibre. ^[16]

Highlights from Telstra’s own Aura Network update:

The network already spans over 5,000 km, with plans to reach nearly 14,000 km across Australia in coming years.
An Oxford Economics study cited by Telstra suggests the Aura Network could add around A$29 billion to Australian GDP by FY2040 and support 84,000 extra jobs, with a significant portion of that impact in regional Australia. ^[17]
Microsoft is a foundation partner, using the network to support Azure and AI workloads, underlining Telstra’s ambition to be a core enabler of AI infrastructure. ^[18]

Independent research firm Omdia characterises Connected Future 30 as a “bold bet” on Australia’s AI‑driven future, anchored in low‑latency connectivity and AI‑powered networks. ^[19]

Morningstar’s equity research team goes further, describing Telstra as “shrinking to greatness”: streamlining non‑core projects, keeping capital focused on connectivity and infrastructure, and leaning on high‑quality cash flows from InfraCo‑Fixed (about 20% of earnings) and tower business Amplitel (around 5%). ^[20]

Capital management: big buybacks and a strong balance sheet

Telstra has been aggressive in returning capital to shareholders:

A A$750 million on‑market share buyback was completed in 2H FY25.
On 14 August 2025, alongside FY25 results, Telstra announced a new A$1 billion buyback program, citing robust free cash flow and a balance sheet comfortably within its net debt/EBITDA target range. ^[21]

An update lodged on 10 December 2025 shows Telstra bought back about 2.39 million shares in a single day, taking total repurchased shares under the program to roughly 122 million, as it continues to chip away at the share count. ^[22]

From a balance‑sheet perspective:

Net debt: about A$16.4 billion at FY25
Net debt / EBITDA:1.9x, within the updated comfort range of 1.75x–2.25x
Credit ratings: S&P A‑, Moody’s A2
Capex‑to‑sales (BAU): ~14.9% ^[23]

The capital structure is further underpinned by a deep domestic investor base. Reporting in the Financial Review indicates that AustralianSuper, the country’s largest super fund, has built roughly A$1 billion worth of exposure across Telstra and Medibank in 2025, signalling ongoing institutional appetite for Telstra as a core defensive holding. ^[24]

Regulatory and reputational headwinds in 2025

The positive earnings story is tempered by a series of regulatory and reputational challenges that feature prominently in 2025 news flow.

ACCC fine over Belong speed downgrades

In October 2025, the Federal Court fined Telstra A$18 million after the ACCC found that around 9,000 customers of its budget Belong brand were shifted to plans with halved upload speeds in 2020 without being clearly informed. Telstra is compensating affected customers (around A$15 per month for the affected period) and has accepted the court’s decision. ^[25]

While modest against Telstra’s profit base, the case reinforces a pattern of regulatory scrutiny around broadband marketing and may influence how the company structures and describes future plan changes.

Triple‑zero (000) emergency call failures

A Senate inquiry into emergency call reliability has drawn Telstra, Optus and TPG into the spotlight. Several incidents involving older Samsung and iPhone handsets failing to connect to triple‑zero in emergency situations – including two deaths in NSW – have raised questions about network interoperability, device updates and telco‑government communication. ^[26]

Telstra executives have faced tough questioning over when the company became aware of issues and how quickly it notified government and the public. The risk here is less about direct financial cost and more about regulatory response: tighter rules, mandated redundancy, or mandated investment in the emergency call system.

Cyber‑extortion claims

In October 2025, a well‑known criminal group claimed to have hacked Telstra in a campaign that also targeted Qantas and Salesforce. Telstra investigated and publicly denied that its systems were breached; the group subsequently removed Telstra from its leak site. ^[27]

Even so, the episode underscores the reputational and operational risk faced by large telcos as high‑value cyber targets.

Local tower controversies

At the local level, Telstra and its tower company Amplitel continue to encounter community resistance to new infrastructure. A recent example is a proposed 26‑metre tower near St Andrews Beach Golf Course on Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, which has triggered resident concerns about views, fire access and RF exposure, despite Telstra arguing it complies with emergency‑service guidelines and improves regional coverage. ^[28]

These disputes rarely move the earnings dial but they can slow rollout and add friction to Telstra’s push for deeper regional 5G coverage.

Pricing, customers and 5G: what’s changing now

Telstra’s revenue growth has come with palpable bill shock for some customers.

In mid‑2025 Telstra increased prices across most postpaid mobile and NBN plans by A$3–5 per month, while leaving lower‑tier and some high‑speed plans unchanged. ^[29]
News coverage of Telstra’s FY25 results highlighted that higher service prices, along with job cuts, played a significant role in its 34% rise in statutory profit, even as some customers criticised the increases as outpacing inflation. ^[30]
NBN wholesale prices also crept higher from 1 July 2025, increasing cost pressure across the broadband market. ^[31]

Customer terms update – effective 11 December 2025

From today, 11 December 2025, Telstra has rolled out a set of changes to its Customer Terms, affecting both pre‑paid and mobile customers:

New limits on the number of registered pre‑paid services per user, aimed at curbing SIM misuse and improving compliance.
Updates related to mobile coverage information, likely to align with regulator expectations and remove ambiguity from marketing claims.
Additional provisions around support for vulnerable customers. ^[32]

These changes are operational rather than financial, but they signal Telstra’s efforts to harden its legal position after multiple years of ACCC and ACMA enforcement activity.

5G adoption and network investments

Research from RMIT University, summarised by WhistleOut, suggests that 5G customers are generally satisfied but adoption remains slower than once expected, and 5G is not about to replace NBN in the near term. ^[33]

For Telstra, that means:

Mobile 5G remains a growth driver, but
Fixed‑line broadband (via NBN and fibre) is still critical to long‑term earnings.

Recent network announcements include a 5G and 4G upgrade in West Ballina, NSW, boosting capacity and speeds in that region. ^[34]

Dividend profile and 2026 expectations

Telstra’s dividend story remains central to its investment case.

FY25 dividend: A$0.19 per share (two fully‑franked payments of A$0.095). ^[35]
Recent ex‑dividend dates:
- Interim dividend A$0.095 – ex‑date 26 February 2025, paid 28 March 2025
- Final dividend A$0.095 – ex‑date 27 August 2025, paid 25 September 2025 ^[36]

At the current share price near A$4.89, that 19‑cent annual payout equates to a cash yield of about 3.9%, with the grossed‑up yield higher for investors who can use franking credits. ^[37]

Recent commentary from broker and retail‑investing outlets:

Motley Fool has repeatedly highlighted Telstra as a core dividend stock for passive income, noting both the 2025 share‑price rally and the relatively stable payout profile. ^[38]
An article on 5 December 2025 outlining Telstra’s 2026 dividend timetable noted that UBS and Jarden both rate Telstra a “hold” with a A$4.80 12‑month target, implying modest downside from current levels and signalling that some brokers see the yield as fair rather than compelling at today’s price. ^[39]

Investors will get another data point when Telstra releases its 1H FY26 results in mid‑February 2026; several calendars and research platforms flag a reporting date around 19 February 2026. ^[40]

What analysts and models are saying now

There is no single consensus on Telstra’s fair value, but some clear clusters have emerged.

Broker and consensus targets

Data aggregated by several finance platforms shows:

Average 12‑month price target: about A$4.94
High estimate:A$5.40
Low estimate:A$4.20
Analyst mix: 7 “buy” recommendations and 7 “hold”, with no outright “sell” calls in the main broker sample. ^[41]

On that basis, Telstra is trading slightly below the consensus target (roughly 1%–2% upside), but well below the most bullish A$5.40 view.

Morningstar recently lifted its fair value estimate to A$5.40, citing:

Higher confidence in Telstra’s earnings resilience,
Lower assumed cost of equity (WACC cut from 6.8% to 6.5%), and
Stable infrastructure‑style cash flows from InfraCo‑Fixed and Amplitel. ^[42]

At around A$4.89, Morningstar sees Telstra trading roughly 10% below its fair value – enough for a mild discount but not a deep value call.

Growth and returns forecasts

Simply Wall St’s analyst aggregate paints Telstra as a low‑growth but steady compounder:

Earnings are forecast to grow at ~4.8% per year,
Revenue at about 2.3% per year,
EPS at around 6% per year, and
Return on equity is projected to approach ~19% in three years. ^[43]

That profile is consistent with Telstra’s own ambition for mid‑single‑digit cash earnings growth under Connected Future 30.

Valuation models disagree – violently

Not all models are bullish. A Peter Lynch‑style fair‑value calculation on ValueInvesting.io, for example, arrives at a fair value of just A$0.97 per share (vs. a market price of about A$4.90), implying the stock is massively overvalued on that particular methodology. ^[44]

Such outlier models are strongly dependent on long‑run growth assumptions and may not capture Telstra’s infrastructure‑like characteristics, but they underline how sensitive valuation is to small tweaks in assumed growth and discount rates for a slow‑growing utility‑style business.

Short‑term technical view

Technical‑analysis site StockInvest.us recently downgraded Telstra from “Hold” to “Sell candidate” based on price action up to 10 December 2025. Its model notes:

A small price decline to A$4.90 on 10 December,
Five down days out of the last ten,
A horizontal trading range, with a 90% probability band between A$4.89 and A$5.19 over the next three months, and
Short‑ and long‑term moving averages both generating negative signals. ^[45]

From this purely technical standpoint, Telstra looks short‑term weak but low‑volatility, with the trend neither strongly bearish nor strongly bullish.

How defensive is Telstra really?

A recurring theme in recent coverage is Telstra’s defensive quality:

Morningstar now rates Telstra as a narrow‑moat, “Low uncertainty” stock, citing stable infrastructure cash flows, resilient mobile earnings and a strong balance sheet. ^[46]
Kalkine Media emphasises Telstra’s steady earnings growth, insider buying and consistent revenue trends, arguing that the stock can anchor dividend portfolios that prioritise stability over high growth. ^[47]

At the same time, Telstra is clearly not risk‑free:

Regulatory intervention (ACCC fines, emergency‑call inquiries) continues to be a fact of life. ^[48]
Price rises, while boosting earnings, raise political and customer‑relations risk. ^[49]
Workforce reductions – more than 3,200 roles removed in FY25 and another ~550 roles slated for cuts in the enterprise division – may deliver cost savings but also create execution and cultural challenges, especially as AI‑driven automation ramps up. ^[50]

The market’s current stance – “buy” or “outperform” from some analysts, “hold” from many others, and a technical “sell” in the very short term – reflects that mixture of steady fundamentals and evolving risk.

Key takeaways for investors (not financial advice)

Putting the latest news, forecasts and analysis together as at 11 December 2025, Telstra’s position looks roughly like this:

Price: Around A$4.89–4.90, near the middle of its 52‑week range and slightly below mainstream 12‑month price targets. ^[51]
Income profile: Trail dividend yield of ~3.9%, fully franked, with management targeting a “sustainable and growing” dividend under its strategy to 2030. ^[52]
Growth: Low‑to‑mid single‑digit earnings growth expected, supported by price increases, infrastructure expansion and cost‑out, but constrained by regulation, competition and mature markets. ^[53]
Balance sheet & buybacks: Net debt under control, strong free cash flow, and ongoing multi‑billion‑dollar buybacks reduce the share count and support EPS growth, while institutional investors like AustralianSuper add depth to the register. ^[54]
Risks: Regulatory penalties, emergency‑call reliability issues, cyber‑security scares, and community resistance to new infrastructure all highlight that even “defensive” telcos operate under intense public and political scrutiny. ^[55]

From a purely informational standpoint, Telstra now sits at an interesting intersection: priced as a high‑quality defensive, but with a strategic plan that leans hard into AI‑era infrastructure and automation. Whether that combination justifies today’s valuation depends heavily on an individual investor’s risk tolerance, income needs and view on how regulators, customers and technology trends evolve over the next five to ten years.

References