Tempus AI (TEM) Stock: FDA Wins, Q3 Earnings, and Analyst Forecasts – December 6, 2025

Updated: December 6, 2025

Tempus AI Inc. (NASDAQ: TEM) has quickly become one of the most closely watched artificial intelligence stocks in healthcare. After a year marked by multiple FDA clearances, strong revenue growth and high-profile partnerships, Wall Street is now debating whether the current share price in the mid‑$70s still leaves meaningful upside. ^[1]

Fresh research notes and news items published on December 5–6, 2025—including new institutional buying, updated growth forecasts and a cluster of analyst price targets—are reshaping the conversation around the stock’s outlook heading into 2026. ^[2]

Tempus AI at a glance

Tempus AI is a U.S. health‑technology company founded in 2015 by Eric Lefkofsky and headquartered in Chicago. It uses data and artificial intelligence to power precision‑medicine tools across oncology, cardiology, radiology, neurology and other therapeutic areas. ^[3]

The business is broadly organized into two main lines:

• Genomics – oncology and hereditary cancer testing (for example DNA‑based xT, liquid biopsy xF and RNA‑based xR assays) used to guide treatment decisions and disease monitoring.
• Data and services – de‑identified real‑world datasets, AI insights, clinical trial services and analytics sold primarily to life‑science companies and health systems. ^[4]

Tempus went public on Nasdaq in June 2024 under the ticker TEM, positioning itself as a scaled, AI‑driven precision‑medicine platform rather than a traditional diagnostics pure‑play. ^[5]

Share price and valuation snapshot (as of December 6, 2025)

Different data vendors show slightly different intraday figures, but they’re broadly consistent:

• Share price: around $76–77 per share as of the Friday, December 5 close, implying a market cap of roughly $13.6 billion. ^[6]
• 52‑week range: low near $31.36 and high around $104.32, highlighting substantial volatility. ^[7]
• 1‑year performance: Fintel data shows the stock at $50.44 on December 6, 2024 versus about $76.70 on December 5, 2025—roughly a 52% gain over twelve months. ^[8]
• Valuation: Tempus trades on a negative P/E ratio near ‑65 and a forward price‑to‑sales (P/S) between about 8x and 10x, versus roughly 6x for its peer group, according to recent Zacks research published via Nasdaq. ^[9]
• Risk profile: A beta just under 5.0 and significant swings between the 52‑week high and low underline that TEM is a high‑volatility AI growth name, not a defensive healthcare stock. ^[10]

For investors scanning Google Discover for “AI stocks” or “healthcare AI plays,” Tempus now screens as a mid‑cap, high‑growth, high‑volatility name with premium valuation metrics and meaningful upside—or downside—depending on execution.

Q3 2025 results: hyper‑growth with narrowing losses

Tempus’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, released on November 4, are the financial backbone behind much of the latest commentary: ^[11]

• Revenue: $334.2 million, up 84.7% year over year.
• Gross profit: $209.9 million, almost doubling versus the prior‑year quarter.
• Operating loss: about $61 million, slightly worse than last year as the company continued investing heavily.
• Net loss: roughly $80 million, or ‑$0.46 per share on a GAAP basis.
• Adjusted EBITDA: positive at about $1.5 million, versus a loss a year earlier—an important psychological milestone for many growth investors.

Segment results show how the business mix is evolving:

• Genomics revenue: $252.9 million in Q3 2025, more than double the prior‑year quarter.
• Data and services revenue: $81.3 million, up 26.1% year over year. ^[12]

Zacks’ data‑centric breakdown highlights that “Insights” data‑licensing contracts were a major driver: Insights bookings reached about $150 million in Q3, growing over 37% year over year, and building on a “multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar” foundation‑model deal earlier in 2025. ^[13]

Taken together, those numbers support a narrative in which Tempus is:

• Still unprofitable, with a negative net margin and high operating expenses. ^[14]
• But beginning to show operating leverage, as revenue and gross profit grow faster than costs.

Revenue mix and growth outlook through 2026

A December 5 Zacks analysis, published on Nasdaq under the headline “Tempus AI: Revenue Mix and 2026 Growth Outlook Explained,” lays out the bigger picture for sales and earnings. ^[15]

Key takeaways from that piece:

• 2024 baseline: Tempus generated about $693 million in revenue in 2024, up roughly 30% versus 2023.
• Mix: Around 65% of that came from Genomics (~$451.7 million), with 35% from Data and services (~$241.6 million). ^[16]
• Trajectory: Analysts and the Zacks model see revenue ramping toward roughly $1.6 billion by 2026, with 2025 acting as a bridge year supported by both higher testing volumes and scaling of data products. ^[17]
• Profit path: Tempus is now non‑GAAP profitable, helped by mix shift and cost discipline, but GAAP EPS is still negative. The Zacks EPS path points to continued narrowing losses through 2025–2027 rather than immediate full profitability. ^[18]

In other words, Wall Street isn’t expecting an overnight transformation into a cash‑gushing business, but many analysts do see a credible route from today’s heavy‑investment phase toward a more scalable, higher‑margin AI data platform by the middle of the decade.

Regulatory momentum: multiple FDA clearances in 2025

One of the main reasons Tempus AI stock is back in the news this week is its growing portfolio of FDA‑cleared AI tools, which several research notes argue could both expand the total addressable market and deepen the company’s competitive moat.

In 2025 alone, Tempus secured at least three noteworthy 510(k) clearances from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration: ^[19]

1. Tempus ECG‑Low EF (July 2025)
   • AI software that analyses standard 12‑lead ECGs to flag patients who may have low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF ≤ 40%), a risk factor for heart failure.
   • It is Tempus’s second ECG‑AI device, following ECG‑AF (for atrial fibrillation), and extends the company’s cardiovascular diagnostics suite.
2. Updated Tempus Pixel (September 2025)
   • An AI‑powered cardiac imaging platform that now supports T1 and T2 inline maps for cardiac MRI, helping identify subtle fibrosis, inflammation or edema even on scanners without built‑in mapping capabilities. ^[20]
3. Tempus xR IVD RNA NGS device (September 2025)
   • An RNA‑based next‑generation sequencing in vitro diagnostic device designed to detect specific gene rearrangements in solid tumors and support drug development programs. ^[21]

Zacks notes that these approvals—together with earlier progress in ECG‑based AI—have “strengthened [Tempus’s] position in AI‑driven diagnostics” and contributed to the stock outperforming both the broader industry and the S&P 500 over the last 12 months, even if exact performance figures vary by data provider. ^[22]

The regulatory story is key for investors: each clearance not only opens new revenue streams but also reinforces Tempus’s pitch that it is building a multi‑specialty AI platform, not just a single‑product company.

Strategy update: data platform, acquisitions and partnerships

Recent analysis has also focused on Tempus’s push deeper into data and clinical AI:

• Zacks’ “Data Business Is Expanding and Adding to Revenues” article from November 25 highlights that Data and services is emerging as a higher‑margin, more scalable revenue stream beyond genomics testing, with Q3 data revenues up 26.1% year over year and strong momentum in Insights licensing. ^[23]
• That piece also points to the acquisition of Paige, an AI leader in digital pathology, as a way to broaden Tempus’s imaging dataset and technical capabilities, particularly in cancer diagnostics. ^[24]
• Tempus has expanded its collaboration with Northwestern Medicine to embed “David”, its generative‑AI clinical co‑pilot, into the electronic health record (EHR), aiming to streamline workflows and bring AI insights to the point of care. ^[25]
• The company also launched Tempus Next into breast cancer, a care‑pathway product designed to surface guideline‑based care gaps in real time and prompt clinicians to close them. ^[26]

On top of that, Tempus has:

• Entered a multi‑year collaboration with Whitehawk Therapeutics to support biomarker‑driven oncology research. ^[27]
• Been selected by ARPA‑H (the U.S. health‑innovation agency) to provide testing and CRO services for its ADAPT precision‑cancer program—an award that QuiverQuant estimates accounts for more than $12 million in government contract payments over the past year. ^[28]
• Announced a new follicular lymphoma research study with the Institute for Follicular Lymphoma Innovation (IFLI) and multiple cancer‑research abstracts at major conferences such as ESMO and SITC. ^[29]

The common thread: Tempus is leaning hard into being a vertically integrated AI‑data platform that spans genomics, imaging, digital pathology and clinical workflow tools.

The very latest news (December 5–6, 2025)

From December 5–6, several new headlines about Tempus AI have hit financial wires and news portals:

1. Nkcfo LLC’s new stake and insider selling

On December 6, MarketBeat reported that Nkcfo LLC initiated a new position of 20,000 TEM shares, worth roughly $1.27 million based on Q2 prices. ^[30]

The same filing‑based article highlights:

• Overall institutional ownership around 24.2% of the float. ^[31]
• Net insider selling in recent months:
  • CEO Eric Lefkofsky sold 332,500 shares at an average price near $89, for about $29.6 million, reducing (but not eliminating) his sizable stake.
  • COO Ryan Fukushima sold just over 10,000 shares, while total insider sales over the last three months reached roughly 1.08 million shares valued at about $84.6 million. ^[32]
• Even after those trades, insiders still own about 26.3% of the company, a high figure for a newly public stock and one that aligns with Tempus’s founder‑led profile. ^[33]

For investors, this mix—growing institutional participation alongside significant insider sales—can be interpreted in two ways: insiders may be diversifying after the IPO, while institutions are still building positions in anticipation of long‑term growth.

2. Tempus flagged as an AI stock “to watch today”

Also dated December 6, a MarketBeat “Top Artificial Intelligence Stocks To Keep An Eye On” piece lists Tempus AI alongside BigBear.ai and SentinelOne as three AI names with high recent dollar trading volume picked up by its screener. ^[34]

The article emphasizes:

• Tempus’s role in AI‑enabled precision medicine and therapeutic discovery.
• The broader appeal—and risk—of AI stocks, given higher valuations, rapid technological change and regulatory uncertainty.

The inclusion of TEM in this type of cross‑sector AI roundup is exactly the kind of exposure that often feeds Google Discover and other “idea list” feeds.

3. QuiverQuant: FDA clearance, hedge‑fund flows and a $92 median target

A fresh QuiverQuant note, updated late on December 5, ties together the recent FDA clearances, Q3 numbers and institutional behavior: ^[35]

• It reiterates Q3 revenue of $334.2 million, up about 84.7% year on year.
• The platform tracks 253 institutional investors adding TEM shares versus 167 reducing positions in their latest quarter, with notable buyers including BlackRock, Vanguard and D.E. Shaw, and large reductions from Goldman Sachs, NEA and Baillie Gifford as early investors reposition. ^[36]
• Over the last year, it records roughly $18.5 million in U.S. government contract payments to Tempus, including about $12.7 million tied to the ARPA‑H ADAPT program and over $5.7 million for genomic‑testing contracts. ^[37]

Crucially, QuiverQuant summarizes eight recent analyst price targets with a median of $92 per share, including: ^[38]

• Morgan Stanley (Tejas Savant): $85 (Overweight) – Dec 2, 2025
• BTIG: $105 (Buy) – Nov 25, 2025
• Piper Sandler: $80 – Nov 11, 2025
• HC Wainwright: $89 – Nov 7, 2025
• Canaccord Genuity: $95 – Nov 5, 2025
• Needham: $100 – Nov 5, 2025
• Guggenheim: $95 – Sept 26, 2025

With the stock trading in the mid‑$70s, that $92 median implies mid‑teens upside if these targets are realized—but also highlights a spread of views from $80 to $105.

4. Zacks on revenue mix and evolving earnings power (Dec 5)

As mentioned earlier, the December 5 Zacks article digs into how Tempus is transitioning from a pure testing company toward a data‑heavy platform, and underscores that the company is already non‑GAAP profitable while GAAP losses continue to narrow. ^[39]

The piece notes that Tempus has posted recent EPS and revenue surprises (roughly +31% on EPS and +2.4% on sales versus consensus in the latest quarter), suggesting that execution has been a tailwind for sentiment—though any future miss could hit the stock harder given its premium valuation. ^[40]

5. Other recent analyses: valuation, data momentum and long‑term forecasts

Beyond the last 48 hours, several November and early‑December articles continue to frame how investors view TEM:

• “Tempus AI’s Data Business Is Expanding and Adding to Revenues” (Nov 25) – Zacks emphasizes the high‑margin potential of Insights and Data & services, notes Insights bookings of $150 million in Q3, and flags Tempus’s valuation at around 8.18x forward sales versus 5.81x for its industry, calling the stock “expensive” but strategically well positioned. ^[41]
• “Tempus AI Enhances AI‑Driven Diagnostics With Multiple FDA Approvals” (Oct 27) – Another Zacks/Nasdaq piece reviews the xR IVD, Pixel and ECG‑Low EF clearances and argues that Tempus’s stock has dramatically outperformed both its sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, while trading around 10.3x forward sales. ^[42]
• Simply Wall St narrative (Dec 2) – A valuation‑focused article suggests a fair value estimate around $91 per share, about 23% above the then‑current price, based on a narrative that projects $2.1 billion in revenue and $295 million in earnings by 2028, implying roughly 30% annual revenue growth. It also highlights a wide range of community fair‑value estimates (from about $25 to $152), underlining the uncertainty around long‑term assumptions. ^[43]
• Motley Fool’s December 5 piece (“Is Tempus AI the Next Big Artificial Intelligence Stock to Buy?”) – Based on available snippets, the author praises Tempus’s growth and technology but stays cautious due to high cash burn and lack of clear improvement on that front, framing the stock more as a watch‑list candidate than a must‑own at current prices. ^[44]

Wall Street consensus: ratings and price targets

When you aggregate the various research platforms, a nuanced picture emerges:

• MarketBeat:
  • 15 analysts tracked.
  • Rating mix: 7 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, for an overall “Hold” consensus.
  • Average 12‑month price target: about $81.17, with a range from around $52 to $105. ^[45]
• QuiverQuant:
  • Tracks 8 recent analyst targets, with a $92 median and recent high targets at $100–105, as described above. ^[46]
• Stock‑analysis style aggregators:
  • One such site lists 12 analysts with an average target around $80, and long‑term revenue forecasts that climb from roughly $1.3 billion in 2025 to about $1.6 billion in 2026, consistent with Zacks’ growth trajectory. ^[47]
• Zacks Rank:
  • Tempus currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with the firm noting that the 2025 loss‑per‑share estimate has improved modestly (by roughly 3 cents) over the last 30 days. ^[48]

Put simply, the Street loves Tempus’s growth and technology, but many analysts are balancing that enthusiasm against high valuation, ongoing losses, and execution risk. That’s why the consensus rating clusters around “Hold” even though many individual targets sit meaningfully above the current share price.

Institutional, government and insider signals

Recent data sheds additional light on who is actually buying (or selling) TEM:

• Institutional ownership and flows
  • MarketBeat pegs institutional ownership at roughly 24% of the float, with over $2.2 billion of institutional inflows versus about $606 million in outflows over the last year, and more than 300 institutional buyers versus under 100 sellers. ^[49]
  • QuiverQuant’s count of 253 institutions increasing and 167 decreasing positions in their latest quarter reinforces the idea that net institutional demand is still positive, even as some early‑stage backers (such as NEA and Goldman Sachs) reduce exposure. ^[50]
  • ARK Investment Management is one of the largest holders, with more than 7.1 million shares (just over 4% of the company) as of the September 30 quarter. ^[51]
• Government contracts
  • Over the last year, Tempus has received roughly $18.5 million in U.S. government award payments, led by the ARPA‑H ADAPT CRO support contract and a tumor‑normal matched genomic‑testing award. ^[52]
• Insider ownership and selling
  • Insiders still control more than a quarter of outstanding shares, which keeps management strongly economically aligned with long‑term equity value. ^[53]
  • At the same time, the CEO and COO have sold meaningful amounts of stock since October, and total insider sales over the last three months top $84 million, a dynamic that cautious investors will continue to watch closely. ^[54]

Key opportunities for Tempus AI stock

From the latest research and news, several bullish themes stand out:

1. Explosive revenue growth with a path toward profitability
   • Revenue growth near 85–90% year over year in recent quarters, combined with a first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter, signals that the business is scaling fast. ^[55]
2. A differentiated, multi‑modal data moat
   • Tempus isn’t just running genetic tests; it’s aggregating genomics, clinical data, imaging, digital pathology and workflow data into one platform and monetizing it through AI tools and licensing deals. ^[56]
3. Regulatory validation through multiple FDA approvals
   • The series of 510(k) clearances across ECG, cardiac imaging and oncology RNA diagnostics strengthens the company’s credibility with clinicians, pharma customers and payers. ^[57]
4. Large and growing total addressable market
   • Zacks cites third‑party estimates that the AI in radiology market alone could reach around $15.7 billion by 2035 with high‑teens annual growth, and similar tailwinds exist in oncology diagnostics, lab testing and clinical‑decision support. ^[58]
5. Strategic partnerships and government‑backed projects
   • Collaborations with major health systems (e.g., Northwestern Medicine), biopharma partners (Whitehawk) and U.S. government agencies (ARPA‑H) position Tempus at the center of AI‑driven precision‑medicine initiatives. ^[59]

Key risks and bear arguments

The latest neutral‑to‑cautious research notes emphasize several important risks:

1. High valuation and premium multiples
   • With forward P/S ratios quoted between roughly 8x and 10x, Tempus trades at a significant premium to many diagnostics and med‑tech peers that also have strong growth. Zacks explicitly labels the stock as “expensive” on this basis. ^[60]
2. Ongoing GAAP losses and cash burn
   • Even with improving adjusted metrics, the company is still reporting net losses and significant stock‑based compensation. A recent Motley Fool article points to cash burn and lack of clear improvement as reasons to be cautious about buying at current levels. ^[61]
3. Execution and integration risk
   • Tempus is simultaneously integrating acquisitions (such as Paige), scaling new product lines, expanding internationally and supporting major government programs—any misstep could slow growth or compress margins. ^[62]
4. Regulatory and reimbursement uncertainty
   • While FDA approvals are a positive, long‑term economics depend on reimbursement policies, adoption in clinical guidelines, and evolving AI regulations. Analysts at Simply Wall St and Zacks both flag reimbursement and competitive dynamics as potential swing factors for the company’s valuation. ^[63]
5. Share‑price volatility and insider selling
   • The combination of a high‑beta profile, wide 52‑week range and notable insider sales makes TEM a volatile trading vehicle, which may not suit conservative investors. ^[64]

Tempus AI stock forecast for 2025–2026: what to watch

No one can predict precisely where the stock will trade next year, but the consensus picture heading into 2026 looks roughly like this, based on compiled forecasts and recent research: ^[65]

• Revenue: Models generally envision revenue climbing from the high‑$600 million range in 2024 to around $1.3 billion in 2025 and $1.6 billion or more in 2026, implying strong compound growth but a natural deceleration from the near‑90% rates of early 2025.
• Earnings: Street forecasts and Zacks commentary suggest narrowing losses in 2025 and 2026, with non‑GAAP profitability already achieved and GAAP EPS potentially moving toward breakeven later in the decade, depending on how aggressively Tempus continues to invest.
• Price targets:
  • Aggregated 12‑month targets mostly cluster in the $80–95 range, with extremes roughly between the low‑$50s and the mid‑$100s.
  • At a current price in the mid‑$70s, that implies modest to mid‑teens upside on average, but with meaningful dispersion by analyst and methodology.

The next major catalyst is expected to be Tempus’s Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings report, which several calendars suggest will arrive in late February or early March 2026. Zacks’ earnings calendar indicates ongoing interest in whether Tempus can sustain positive non‑GAAP profitability and continue to beat revenue and EPS expectations. ^[66]

Investors will likely focus on:

• Growth and margin trends in Data and services.
• Updated guidance for 2026, especially around revenue mix and adjusted EBITDA.
• Any new FDA decisions, reimbursement wins, or major data‑licensing deals.
• Cash‑flow trends and the rate of stock‑based compensation.

Bottom line

As of December 6, 2025, Tempus AI (TEM) sits at a crossroads:

• It has rapidly growing revenue, a deepening AI/data moat and multiple FDA‑cleared products that give it a high‑profile role in the future of precision medicine.
• At the same time, the stock trades at a premium valuation, remains GAAP‑unprofitable, and exhibits significant volatility, with insiders recently taking some chips off the table even as institutions continue to build positions. ^[67]

For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with risk, the latest batch of research and news—particularly the December 5–6 updates—paints Tempus as a high‑potential but high‑beta AI healthcare play where future returns will likely hinge on continued execution in data monetization, regulatory wins and the march toward sustainable profitability.

For more conservative investors, recent “Hold” ratings and valuation‑focused pieces suggest that waiting for either a better price or clearer GAAP profitability may be the more prudent path.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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