December 20, 2025
Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) heads into the weekend at the center of two narratives that rarely collide so neatly: a major U.S. manufacturing milestone and a fresh wave of Wall Street debate about what that investment means for margins, cash flow, and share performance in the next semiconductor cycle.
TXN last closed at $176.29 (Dec. 19, 2025), with trading in recent sessions reflecting investor tug-of-war between long-term capacity advantages and short-term profitability concerns. [1]
Below is a full roundup of the current news, forecasts, and analyses relevant to Texas Instruments stock as of 20.12.2025, plus the key items investors are watching into early 2026.
Why Texas Instruments stock is back in the headlines
1) The Sherman “SM1” 300mm fab is officially in production
The biggest corporate catalyst this week is operational, not financial: Texas Instruments has begun production at SM1, the first of up to four planned 300mm wafer fabs at its Sherman, Texas “mega-site.” TI says SM1 is already producing chips for customers and will ramp output based on demand, with an eventual run-rate in the “tens of millions” of chips per day. [2]
The company has positioned Sherman as a decades-long capacity play—part of a potential $40 billion investment at the site (SM1–SM4) and a broader U.S. manufacturing buildout that TI has discussed publicly in the context of strengthening supply chains. [3]
Local coverage of the ribbon-cutting underscored how politically and economically significant this buildout is for North Texas: reports noted the expected ~3,000 jobs and the focus on producing chips used broadly across electronics—especially the kind of “foundational” semiconductors that show up in industrial systems, vehicles, and data centers. [4]
Why it matters for TXN stock:
300mm manufacturing is a core element of TI’s long-term cost strategy. In public remarks at an investor conference, TI executives have emphasized that moving to 300mm materially reduces unit costs versus 200mm—helping TI protect margins over time, especially in a catalog-style business that competes on availability and total cost. [5]
The market’s big debate: “Strategic advantage” vs. “earnings drag”
2) Goldman Sachs’ rare double downgrade adds fuel to the bear case
The most market-moving analyst action in the current news cycle is Goldman Sachs’ double downgrade of Texas Instruments to Sell, with a price target cut to $156 from $200. [6]
The core of Goldman’s argument isn’t that analog demand won’t recover—it’s that TI’s company-specific choices around capacity and utilization could make its margin and earnings recovery lag peers. The thesis: building aggressively and running factories at higher loadings into softer demand can inflate inventory and raise the near-term burden of depreciation, muting operating leverage in an upturn. [7]
One detail that keeps surfacing in coverage: TI has forecast $2.3B–$2.7B in depreciation costs for fiscal 2026, a figure that becomes a focal point when investors are modeling gross margin expansion. [8]
What TI has said about inventory and loadings:
At Citi’s 2025 conference, TI leadership framed inventory as deliberate—designed to keep lead times short and support a broad catalog business. The company also described scenarios where wafer starts could be adjusted to manage inventory, even if that creates temporary P&L headwinds. [9]
The bull case didn’t disappear—Wall Street is simply more split
3) Truist raises its price target, but keeps a “Hold”
Not all recent analyst updates were negative. On Dec. 19, Truist raised its TXN price target to $195 (from $175) while maintaining a Hold rating—implying roughly low-double-digit upside from the prior close. [10]
And consensus targets remain meaningfully above the current price in several widely followed compilations:
- MarketBeat shows a consensus “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target of $191.49, with published targets ranging widely (roughly $125 to $245). [11]
- StockAnalysis lists an average target around $200.75 and a median around $200, again highlighting that different aggregators can produce different “consensus” snapshots depending on which analysts they include and how they weight them. [12]
- GuruFocus’ compilation also reflects a broad spread in targets and an overall “Hold”-leaning stance. [13]
Why the spread matters:
TXN is increasingly trading like a “quality compounder vs. cycle risk” tug-of-war. Bulls point to manufacturing scale, cost structure, and customer stickiness. Bears point to the timing mismatch between heavy investment (capex and depreciation) and the pace of demand recovery.
The fundamentals snapshot: what TI just reported and what it guided
4) Q3 2025 results were solid—Q4 guidance is what kept investors cautious
TI’s most recent earnings report (Q3 2025) showed:
- Revenue:$4.74B
- Net income:$1.36B
- EPS:$1.48
TI also provided Q4 2025 guidance of:
- Revenue:$4.22B–$4.58B
- EPS:$1.13–$1.39 [14]
Reuters characterized the Q4 outlook as below Street expectations at the time and tied the cautious tone to uncertainty around tariffs and the pace of recovery in analog chips—especially in industrial and automotive demand patterns. [15]
Why Q4 guidance matters for TXN stock right now:
Texas Instruments is often treated as a bellwether for “real economy” semiconductors—chips that go into factories, cars, and infrastructure. When TI guides conservatively, it tends to influence how investors think about the breadth of a recovery outside the AI-heavy parts of the chip market.
Tariffs, CHIPS Act incentives, and TI’s “made-in-America” strategy
5) Policy risk is no longer abstract—management keeps referencing it
A key thread across TI coverage in 2025 has been trade policy uncertainty and its downstream effect on customer behavior.
Reuters reported that TI executives described customers—especially in industrial—operating in a “wait-and-see” mode as tariff rules remained unclear. Reuters also pointed to the possibility of steep semiconductor import tariffs being discussed publicly, with carve-outs for domestic manufacturing commitments, but with details not fully formalized at the time of reporting. [16]
At the Citi conference, TI leadership described a strategic emphasis on U.S.-based manufacturing clusters (Texas and Utah), and also provided concrete investment framing that helps investors model cash flows:
- 2025 capex: ~$5B
- 2026 capex framework:$2B–$5B (depending on revenue scenarios)
- CHIPS Act benefits discussed:$6B–$9B in investment tax credits (ITC) and $1.6B in direct grants (as cited in the conference transcript summary) [17]
Reuters separately reported that TI’s CHIPS-related arrangements and the broader policy environment have become part of the investor conversation—especially after other companies faced questions about potential government involvement tied to incentives. [18]
Investor takeaway:
Sherman isn’t just about unit cost—it also functions as a strategic hedge if the policy environment increasingly rewards onshore production and penalizes imported chips. That doesn’t automatically translate into near-term EPS acceleration, but it can change the risk profile investors assign to long-term capacity access.
Dividends and shareholder returns: a core pillar of the TXN thesis
6) TI raised its dividend again—22 straight years of increases
For income-focused investors, TI remains one of the more closely watched dividend names in semiconductors.
- TI announced a 4% dividend increase to $1.42 per share quarterly (annualized $5.68), marking 22 consecutive years of dividend increases. [19]
- The board also declared the quarterly dividend at $1.42 for the relevant period, payable in November 2025 (per the company’s release). [20]
In its Q3 2025 release, TI also highlighted shareholder returns and cash flow context:
- Trailing 12‑month cash flow from operations was cited as $6.9B, and free cash flow as $2.4B (with TI’s definition including proceeds from CHIPS Act incentives). [21]
- Over the past 12 months, TI said it returned $6.6B to owners and invested $4.8B in capex. [22]
Why it matters for TXN stock forecasts:
Even when growth is moderate, dividends and repurchases can materially shape long-term total return. The tension in 2025 has been that heavy capex can temporarily compress free cash flow—exactly the concern bears raise—while management argues it is building the cost base and capacity that will support cash generation across the next decade.
The “today” headline: a congressional trade disclosure involving TXN
7) Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr. disclosed a TXN purchase (reported Dec. 19; covered Dec. 20)
One of the items dated Dec. 20, 2025 is not about earnings or fabs, but about public-market transparency.
MarketBeat reported that Rep. Thomas H. Kean, Jr. disclosed a purchase of TXN shares valued in the $1,001 to $15,000 range, with the transaction dated Nov. 26 and disclosed publicly on Dec. 19. [23]
Capitol Trades also lists the TXN transaction details, including the reported price and the publication/filing timeline. [24]
How to interpret it (without overreading it):
These disclosures can drive short-lived headlines, but they rarely change the investment thesis on a large, highly covered company like Texas Instruments unless they coincide with material company-specific developments.
TXN earnings date: here’s what calendars are currently showing
TI has not universally “confirmed” a single next earnings date across all public trackers, and different platforms show different estimates. As of Dec. 20, 2025:
- MarketBeat lists an estimated earnings date of Jan. 22, 2026 (not confirmed). [25]
- Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar shows TXN on Jan. 20, 2026 (4 PM EST). [26]
- TipRanks shows Jan. 27, 2026 (after close) and labels it “confirmed” in its interface, though investors should still verify via TI’s IR schedule when the company posts official materials. [27]
Practical approach: if you’re trading around earnings, rely on Texas Instruments’ Investor Relations postings and webcasts once the company publishes the official date/time. [28]
Texas Instruments stock forecast for 2026: the key drivers investors are modeling
Analyst models differ, but the “forecast variables” showing up repeatedly in current coverage cluster into five buckets:
1) Pace of analog recovery (industrial vs. automotive)
TI has described a recovery that is broad-based but not a snapback, with automotive lagging. That puts extra weight on whether industrial demand continues to normalize—and whether auto finally follows. [29]
2) Inventory normalization and factory loadings
This is the heart of the Goldman bear thesis: inventory + utilization choices can reshape margin recovery timing. TI has explicitly discussed the possibility of adjusting wafer starts if revenue lands toward lower scenarios. [30]
3) Depreciation and capex trajectory
Depreciation guidance cited in multiple sources is a central modeling item:
- 2025 depreciation:$1.8B–$2.0B
- 2026 depreciation:$2.3B–$2.7B (often discussed as likely toward the lower end) [31]
Capex is also expected to remain a swing factor, with TI framing 2026 capex as $2B–$5B depending on demand. [32]
4) Policy environment (tariffs + onshoring incentives)
Tariff uncertainty has already been cited as influencing customer capex decisions and visibility, while TI’s U.S. fab expansion may become more strategically valuable if policy continues pushing supply-chain localization. [33]
5) Analyst revisions and price targets
Recent actions show just how wide the forecast range is:
- Goldman: downgrade to Sell, PT $156 [34]
- Truist: Hold, PT $195 [35]
- Market-wide compilations: average targets roughly in the $190–$200 area, with lows around $125 and highs in the $245–$255 zone depending on the source. [36]
Bottom line for TXN stock on Dec. 20, 2025
Texas Instruments is giving investors a very clear “trade” as 2025 closes:
- The long-term bet: Sherman and the broader 300mm manufacturing footprint strengthen TI’s cost and supply-chain control for a decade-plus runway. [37]
- The near-term risk: heavy investment, rising depreciation, and the pace of analog recovery could keep margin expansion uneven, leaving TXN vulnerable to downgrades and revision cycles even if revenues improve. [38]
- The stabilizer: a still-prominent shareholder return program—reinforced by the latest dividend increase—keeps TXN on the radar for total-return and income investors, not just growth traders. [39]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.ti.com, 3. www.ti.com, 4. www.fox4news.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.gurufocus.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.ti.com, 20. www.ti.com, 21. www.prnewswire.com, 22. www.prnewswire.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.capitoltrades.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. finance.yahoo.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. investor.ti.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.ti.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. www.ti.com
