NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 2:03 p.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
Texas Instruments Incorporated (Nasdaq: TXN) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with Wall Street still debating a familiar question for the analog-chip heavyweight: will the company’s long-term manufacturing buildout translate into stronger earnings power in the next upcycle—or weigh on margins longer than investors expect?
With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend and set to reopen Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET, TXN investors are digesting a small batch of fresh filings alongside the most consequential recent narrative driver: a rare “double downgrade” from Goldman Sachs earlier this month, countered by more constructive price-target moves from other firms. [1]
Where TXN stock stands heading into Monday
Texas Instruments ended the last regular session (Friday, Dec. 26) at $176.88. In late Friday extended trading, TXN was quoted around $176.57 (prices can vary by venue and data source). [2]
Because it’s Sunday, there is no regular-session trading in TXN; the next opportunity for most investors to transact will be Monday’s regular session, with pre-market and after-hours sessions available through brokerages that support extended-hours trading. [3]
The newest TXN headlines in the last 24–48 hours: institutional filings
The most time-sensitive TXN-specific items over the past two days have been institutional ownership updates tied to Form 13F filings, rather than fresh operating news from the company.
- Cwm LLC reported raising its stake during the third quarter, adding shares and ending the period with over 115,000 shares (per the filing coverage). [4]
- World Investment Advisors reported boosting its position during the third quarter as well (again via filing coverage). [5]
These types of updates usually don’t change the fundamental outlook on their own, but they can reinforce a key backdrop for TXN: it remains a heavily institutionally held large-cap semiconductor name, which can amplify how analyst revisions and macro data influence marginal flows.
Analyst outlook: Goldman’s bearish reset vs. Truist’s higher target
Goldman Sachs: downgrade to Sell with a $156 target
A widely cited pressure point for TXN in December has been Goldman Sachs’ double downgrade to Sell and a lowered price target of $156, with the bank arguing Texas Instruments has limited upside versus peers and is less positioned to benefit from the parts of semiconductors most levered to AI infrastructure. [6]
Barron’s reporting on the callout added more color to what investors have been debating for multiple quarters: whether Texas Instruments’ capacity strategy and utilization decisions through the downcycle left it with heavier inventory and depreciation headwinds than some competitors as demand normalizes. [7]
At Friday’s close near $176.88, a $156 target implies roughly 12% downside—a meaningful gap for a mega-cap that many investors hold for durability and dividends, not just growth.
Truist: Hold rating, but price target raised to $195
On the other side of the spectrum, Truist analyst William Stein raised his firm’s TXN price target to $195 while keeping a Hold rating, in a broader adjustment across semiconductors after establishing longer-range estimates. [8]
A $195 target from the current area implies roughly 10% upside, which illustrates the “range of reasonable outcomes” debate in TXN: the stock is not universally viewed as broken—just more controversial than many traditional analog bellwethers when compared with AI-linked names.
Why Texas Instruments’ manufacturing push matters to the stock narrative
Texas Instruments is not just “another chipmaker.” The company’s investment cycle and internal manufacturing footprint are central to its long-term margin and cash-flow story—and a key reason analysts diverge.
In mid-December, TI announced it began production at its newest 300mm wafer fab in Sherman, Texas (SM1), emphasizing that the facility will ramp “according to customer demand” and can ultimately produce tens of millions of chips daily used across electronics categories. CEO Haviv Ilan described the move as part of TI’s strategy of owning and controlling manufacturing to deliver “foundational semiconductors.” [9]
Earlier in 2025, TI laid out an even bigger frame: plans to invest more than $60 billion across multiple U.S. fabs in Texas and Utah, describing it as a major expansion of domestic foundational semiconductor capacity. [10]
For investors, this creates a push-pull:
- Bull case: scale manufacturing at 300mm, control supply, defend gross margins through the cycle, and support long-run free-cash-flow per share.
- Bear case (surfacing in recent downgrades): heavier depreciation and inventory dynamics can mute earnings leverage in a gradual recovery.
That tension is at the heart of why TXN can trade like a “quality compounder” in one period—and like a “value trap” in another—depending on the market’s confidence in the timing and slope of the next analog upturn.
Earnings setup: what the Street is watching next
The next major scheduled catalyst for TXN is its Q4 2025 earnings report, which TipRanks lists as Jan. 27, 2026 (after close), with a consensus EPS forecast of about $1.29. [11]
The same TipRanks earnings page summarizes the company’s most recent guidance framework (from the last reported quarter) and highlights recurring investor focal points: end-market recovery pacing, margins, and management’s posture on inventory and loading levels. [12]
Between now and that report, the stock can still move sharply on:
- Analyst estimate revisions (especially around gross margin and 2026 depreciation assumptions),
- Semiconductor demand commentary from peers in industrial and automotive,
- and macro data that shifts expectations for manufacturing and capital spending.
Balance-sheet context: leverage looks manageable, but not irrelevant
A frequent question for large-cap dividend names is whether leverage constrains flexibility during a cycle. On that front, third-party financial health snapshots still generally frame TI’s leverage as manageable—showing total debt around $14B, cash around $5B, and interest coverage that suggests debt service is not the central near-term risk. [13]
That said, for TXN the bigger debate isn’t solvency—it’s how efficiently incremental capital spending converts into durable free cash flow over the next cycle.
Market-calendar risk: what to know before Monday’s session
With markets reopening Monday, investors are also navigating a holiday-shortened transition into the New Year. Nasdaq’s schedule shows U.S. markets are closed for New Year’s Day (Jan. 1) and operate on the standard 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET timetable on regular days. [14]
For the coming week, macro-event risk matters because TXN is heavily exposed to industrial and automotive demand—end markets that often react to changes in growth expectations and interest-rate assumptions. Market coverage of the week ahead highlights investors watching a run of U.S. economic updates as 2025 closes out. [15]
Levels and signals traders are watching in TXN
Even long-term holders pay attention to technical context into a new week—especially after a major downgrade cycle.
Recent market-data summaries for TXN point to:
- a wide 52-week range (roughly $140 on the low end to above $220 on the high end),
- and price action that has at times struggled to reclaim longer-term moving averages—often cited by technicians as a sentiment barometer. [16]
What TXN investors should watch before the next opening bell
If you’re tracking Texas Instruments into Monday’s open, here’s the practical checklist:
- Any new analyst notes or target changes
The Street is clearly split (Goldman’s $156 vs. Truist’s $195), and incremental estimate changes can matter in a lightly staffed, year-end tape. [17] - Macro prints and rates sensitivity
TXN tends to trade with cyclical semiconductors when investors rotate between “growth/AI” and “industrial recovery” narratives. [18] - Manufacturing/inventory commentary
The market remains focused on whether TI’s capacity strategy creates near-term drag (depreciation/inventory) or sets up stronger long-term cash generation—especially after the Sherman fab production start. [19] - The earnings countdown
With Q4 results on the calendar for late January, positioning can start earlier than many expect—particularly if peers pre-announce demand trends in industrial or automotive. [20]
Texas Instruments remains one of the semiconductor sector’s most closely followed “slow and steady” compounders—but heading into 2026, the stock’s debate has become less about whether analog demand recovers, and more about who captures the most earnings leverage when it does. [21]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.ti.com, 10. www.ti.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. simplywall.st, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.ti.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.barrons.com
