Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) is back in the spotlight on December 16, 2025, as investors balance two forces moving in opposite directions: near-term pressure on the earnings story (highlighted by a high-profile Wall Street downgrade) and long-term confidence in the company’s U.S. manufacturing buildout, including a major Sherman, Texas production milestone expected this week.
With TXN trading modestly lower intraday, today’s coverage centers on whether Texas Instruments’ aggressive capacity investments—once framed as a strategic advantage—could temporarily become a drag on margins, while the analog semiconductor cycle recovers more slowly than hoped.
TXN stock price action today (December 16, 2025)
As of the latest available trading update today, Texas Instruments shares were around $177.73, down slightly from the prior close, after trading between roughly $175.93 and $178.96 intraday.
This relatively muted move is notable because the headline catalyst—an unusually sharp downgrade from Goldman Sachs—would normally be expected to provoke a bigger swing. Instead, the market appears to be taking a “yes, but…” view: acknowledging the margin and inventory concerns, while still giving TI credit for its long-term model, cash generation, and supply assurance strategy.
The big headline: Goldman Sachs delivers a rare double downgrade on Texas Instruments
The most market-moving item in today’s Texas Instruments stock news is a Goldman Sachs double downgrade, shifting its rating from Buy to Sell and cutting the price target to $156 from $200. [1]
What Goldman is worried about
Across today’s reporting, Goldman’s core argument is that—even if the analog chip market is improving—Texas Instruments may underperform peers on earnings due to decisions made during the downturn:
- Too much capacity added, too high utilization maintained during a demand decline, contributing to record inventory levels. [2]
- A coming depreciation expense headwind: reporting cites $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion of depreciation costs projected for fiscal 2026, which can weigh on margins and earnings comparisons. [3]
- A view that the upcycle may be gradual, favoring competitors with leaner inventories and less depreciation drag. [4]
- Limited “AI capex cycle” leverage relative to parts of the semiconductor ecosystem that are directly tied to AI servers and accelerators. [5]
The practical takeaway: Goldman is not necessarily disputing that demand can improve—it’s questioning whether TI’s incremental revenue recovery translates into incremental earnings power at the same rate as peers.
How unusual is this?
A double-step rating move (Buy → Sell) is relatively rare from major banks, which is part of why this note drove broad pickup across market media today. [6]
Counterweight to the downgrade: Sherman’s production milestone reinforces the long-term thesis
While Wall Street is debating near-term margin mechanics, a separate Texas Instruments storyline is about to become very real on the ground in North Texas.
Local reporting indicates that a long-awaited Texas Instruments semiconductor factory in Sherman is expected to open / begin production activities this week, with publication time stamps showing this coverage circulating today, December 16, 2025. [7]
This matters to TXN stock because TI’s core strategy for years has been a scale bet on internal manufacturing—not only to secure supply for customers, but to win structurally on cost over time.
What TI says about Sherman (official details)
Texas Instruments has publicly described Sherman as a major 300mm wafer fab hub:
- The company is building 300-millimeter semiconductor wafer fabrication plants in Sherman, Texas.
- It frames the program as a potential $40 billion investment, with plans for up to four connected fabs (SM1–SM4).
- The site is designed to manufacture millions of analog and embedded processing chips daily.
- TI states that production will begin in 2025, aligning with this week’s milestone narrative. [8]
And in a broader U.S. capacity context, TI has also said it plans to invest more than $60 billion across seven U.S. semiconductor fabs, including Sherman and other Texas/Utah sites. [9]
Why today’s debate is so important for TXN investors
Texas Instruments sits at an interesting intersection: it’s widely seen as a “quality compounder” in semis, but it’s also exposed to the cyclical nature of industrial and automotive demand. That makes the stock especially sensitive to one question:
Is TI’s manufacturing expansion an advantage that shows up first in supply assurance—or first as depreciation and inventory pressure?
Goldman’s note effectively argues the market may need to wait longer for the payoff, because the financial optics (inventory + depreciation) could mask the benefits during an uneven recovery. [10]
Meanwhile, the Sherman production milestone supports the opposite narrative: TI is doing what it said it would do—building domestic capacity at scale—and that can matter for customers planning multi-year product cycles and supply chain risk management. [11]
Wall Street forecasts and price targets for TXN stock: where the Street stands today
Even with today’s downgrade noise, the broader analyst picture remains mixed but not uniformly bearish.
Consensus targets cluster around the high-$180s (with a wide range)
One widely followed consensus snapshot shows:
- Average price target: about $189.67
- High:$245
- Low:$125
- Implied upside from the then-current price: mid-single digits [12]
Other aggregators put the consensus higher (around ~$200), reflecting differences in the analyst set and update timing. [13]
A valuation “sanity check” making the rounds today
A separate valuation-style analysis circulating within the last day notes Texas Instruments’ fair value estimate nudged down slightly (about $189.56 to $188.92), framing the stock as close to “fairly valued” rather than dramatically cheap or expensive. [14]
Today’s split message: bearish ratings can coexist with higher targets
One reason TXN coverage can look contradictory is that firms sometimes adjust targets as models move (rates, multiples, EPS base) while still maintaining a cautious stance on risk/reward.
For example, today’s news flow also includes a note that BofA raised its price target to $185 from $175 while keeping an Underperform rating, which is a classic “less downside than before, but still not attractive enough” setup. [15]
What to watch next: catalysts that could move Texas Instruments stock
Today’s mix of factory momentum and analyst caution makes the next few checkpoints especially important for anyone tracking TXN stock.
1) Inventory and utilization signals
Today’s downgrade narrative puts inventory levels and factory loading discipline at the center of the debate. [16]
Investors will likely focus on any management commentary that clarifies whether TI is optimizing utilization for margins (near term) versus running hard for lead times and customer support (strategic positioning).
2) Depreciation outlook into fiscal 2026
The cited $2.3B–$2.7B depreciation outlook for fiscal 2026 is a number the market will keep pressure-testing, because it can materially affect operating leverage and EPS trajectories. [17]
3) Sherman ramp execution and downstream demand pull
Sherman is a long game, but the “this week” production milestone makes it near-term tangible. [18]
As Sherman output increases, the market will care less about ribbon-cuttings and more about:
- ramp curve and yields,
- product mix,
- how quickly capacity is absorbed,
- and whether the new supply supports share gains or simply adds to system inventory.
4) Next earnings timing (still not officially uniform across trackers)
Looking ahead, multiple market calendars point to a mid-to-late January 2026 window for the next update, but the exact date varies across platforms (some list January 20, others January 22, and others later). [19]
Until TI posts its official schedule on investor relations, investors should treat these as estimates rather than confirmations.
Bottom line for TXN stock on December 16, 2025
Texas Instruments stock today reflects a market trying to reconcile two truths:
- In the near term, a prominent sell-side firm is arguing TI’s earnings recovery could lag peers due to record inventory, capacity decisions, and a looming depreciation headwind—and it backed that view with a rare double downgrade and a sharply lower target. [20]
- In the long term, TI’s manufacturing thesis is moving from plan to reality, with Sherman production activity expected this week and the company continuing to position its U.S. 300mm footprint as a durable competitive advantage. [21]
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.wfaa.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.wfaa.com, 8. www.ti.com, 9. www.ti.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.ti.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.wfaa.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.wfaa.com
