Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) is starting the holiday-shortened week with a modest rebound, as investors balance a major U.S. manufacturing milestone against lingering questions about the pace of demand recovery and what that means for margins. On Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, TXN was trading around $179 (up roughly 1.5% on the day), with the session’s range reported around $177.97 to $179.90. [1]
That price action leaves TXN still well below its 52-week high near $221.69, while sitting comfortably above the 52-week low near $139.95—a reminder that 2025 has been a year of big swings for “foundational” chipmakers tied to industrial and automotive cycles rather than the most AI-hyped compute silicon. [2]
What’s new on Dec. 22 is less about a single headline and more about how several late-December developments are converging: TI has begun shipping from its newest U.S. wafer fab, sell-side analysts are actively recalibrating price targets, and investors are positioning ahead of TI’s next earnings report (expected in late January).
Why Texas Instruments stock is in focus on Dec. 22, 2025
Three forces are shaping the TXN narrative right now:
- A tangible “Made in America” production milestone (not just plans or groundbreakings).
- A debate about near-term profitability as TI builds and runs more internal capacity in a still-moderate demand recovery.
- A wide dispersion in analyst targets, including a high-profile downgrade—yet also multiple target raises that suggest valuation support if the cycle steadies.
The result: TXN is trading like a company at a crossroads—durable, cash-generative, and strategic to domestic manufacturing goals, but also exposed to the timing and slope of a recovery in its biggest end markets.
The Sherman SM1 fab: the December milestone bulls keep pointing to
The most concrete piece of company-specific news hitting late in the year is Texas Instruments’ start of production at its new 300mm wafer fab, SM1, in Sherman, Texas.
TI announced on Dec. 17, 2025 that SM1 had begun production—just over three years after breaking ground—and said the facility will ramp in line with customer demand, ultimately producing tens of millions of chips daily used across everything from smartphones and autos to medical devices, industrial equipment, and data centers. [3]
Importantly for investors, TI framed Sherman as more than a single fab: the company described the Sherman mega-site as having future plans for up to four connected wafer fabs, supporting as many as 3,000 direct jobs as market demand warrants. [4]
This isn’t a “leading-edge” AI GPU story; it’s an analog-and-embedded capacity story. But that matters because TI’s thesis has long centered on controlling its supply chain, running large-scale 300mm manufacturing, and being able to support customers for decades—especially during tight supply periods. [5]
The big strategic backdrop: TI’s $60+ billion U.S. manufacturing plan
SM1 is also a visible proof point of TI’s broader U.S. manufacturing roadmap. In a June 18, 2025 announcement, TI said it planned to invest more than $60 billion across seven U.S. semiconductor fabs spanning mega-sites in Texas and Utah, positioning it as one of the largest U.S. “foundational semiconductor” investment stories of this cycle. [6]
That June plan specifically highlighted Sherman as TI’s largest mega-site, with investment of up to $40 billion for four fabs (SM1–SM4), with SM1 and SM2 already underway at the time. [7]
For TXN stock, the investment narrative cuts both ways:
- Bull case: Scale + control + long-lived capacity can strengthen customer relationships and reduce long-term supply risk.
- Bear case: Building capacity ahead of demand can pressure margins and free cash flow in the short run.
That tension is a major reason analyst opinions have diverged so sharply into late December.
Demand, tariffs, and the “moderate” recovery pace that still worries investors
A key overhang on TXN is not whether demand recovers—but how fast and whether TI’s cost structure improves quickly enough as utilization and depreciation dynamics evolve.
In October, Reuters reported that TI forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion and EPS of $1.13 to $1.39, both below estimates at the time, with CEO Haviv Ilan describing the recovery as “moderate” and pointing to a wait-and-see posture—especially on the industrial side—amid tariff uncertainty. [8]
That framing matters in December because industrial and automotive demand are central to TI’s analog/embedded franchise. If customers delay factory builds, capex, or equipment refreshes, analog demand can stay sluggish even when consumer tech feels resilient.
So, while the Sherman milestone supports long-term strategic confidence, near-term trading is still heavily influenced by whether investors believe the next few quarters show visible re-acceleration—and whether profitability keeps pace.
Analyst actions: a split Street, from “Sell” to “Hold” to “Underperform,” with targets clustering near $190–$200
Goldman Sachs’ rare double downgrade added fuel to the bears
One of the most market-moving calls in December was Goldman Sachs’ double downgrade of Texas Instruments to Sell from Buy, with a sharply reduced price target of $156 (from $200). Barron’s summarized Goldman’s concern that TI’s supply-chain and capacity decisions—paired with high inventories and depreciation dynamics—could cause TI’s earnings growth to lag peers even during an industry upturn. [9]
BofA raised its target—but kept an “Underperform” stance
By contrast, Bank of America’s semiconductor team raised its price target to $185 from $175 while maintaining an Underperform rating, framing 2026 as the midpoint of a longer infrastructure upgrade cycle linked to AI-driven workloads. That perspective was reported in an analyst recap published on Dec. 22. [10]
Truist lifted its target to $195 while staying “Hold”
Truist also moved its target meaningfully higher, raising TXN to $195 from $175 while keeping a Hold rating—reflecting a more constructive valuation view even without a full-throated “Buy.” [11]
What the consensus says (and why the numbers differ by data source)
Consensus snapshots depend on the dataset, but they generally point to mid-to-high single-digit upside from current levels:
- One widely used compilation shows 94 analysts with a median target of $195.60, with estimates ranging from $125 to $260 and a distribution including buy/hold/sell ratings. [12]
- Another tracking set pegs the average target near $191.49, implying roughly ~7% upside from around $179. [13]
Takeaway: Analysts aren’t unified on the “why,” but a large portion of the Street appears to view TXN as reasonably valued near $179—while disagreeing intensely about margin trajectory and cycle timing.
Forecasts heading into the next earnings report: the numbers investors will trade
With TXN now in a late-December consolidation zone, the next major catalyst is the next earnings cycle (expected in late January 2026).
Market calendars tracked by major quote services point to a Q4 2025 earnings release around Jan. 27, 2026, with quarterly EPS estimates shown near $1.29 on at least one widely-followed schedule. (Dates can shift; investors typically confirm via TI’s IR calendar.) [14]
From a fundamentals standpoint, the most important near-term “forecast anchors” investors are already using include:
- Q4 outlook (from the October earnings cycle): revenue $4.22B–$4.58B and EPS $1.13–$1.39 [15]
- Most recent reported quarter (Q3): TXN posted EPS of $1.48 and revenue of $4.74B, with revenue up 14.2% YoY according to a December analyst recap [16]
For the stock, the “beat vs. miss” will matter—but the guide will matter more, especially any commentary around industrial demand, automotive stabilization, and how quickly TI expects its manufacturing footprint to translate into cost advantages rather than incremental depreciation pressure.
Dividend and income appeal: why long-term holders still like the TXN story
Even during cyclical slowdowns, Texas Instruments tends to stay on income investors’ shortlists—and December’s stock debate is happening against a shareholder-return foundation.
TI’s quarterly dividend is $1.42 per share, and dividend trackers show annual dividends around $5.50–$5.68, implying a yield roughly around ~3% depending on the day’s price. [17]
That dividend profile helps explain why TXN can attract “quality” capital even when its near-term growth outlook gets cloudy: investors often treat it as a mix of cyclical exposure and a shareholder-return compounder.
Institutional activity: filings show big holders are still engaged
On the “who owns it” front, a Dec. 22 filing recap highlighted that CCLA Investment Management increased its TXN stake by 19.9% in Q3, bringing holdings to 643,732 shares (valued around $118 million in that filing summary). The same recap estimated that institutions own roughly ~85% of TXN shares. [18]
This doesn’t necessarily predict near-term price direction—13F snapshots are backward-looking—but it reinforces that TXN remains a core institutional holding despite the recent swirl of downgrades and target changes.
Beyond Sherman: TI is also expanding back-end capacity globally
While Sherman is the headline for U.S. wafer capacity, TI has also been investing in assembly and test—an underappreciated part of chip supply chains.
In November 2025, TI announced the opening of its second assembly and test factory in Melaka, Malaysia, saying it will assemble and test billions of chips annually, with potential investment up to MYR 5 billion over time and support for up to 500 local jobs when fully operational. TI also reiterated an ambition to bring 90% of assembly and test operations internal by 2030. [19]
For investors, that matters because internalizing more of the supply chain can improve resiliency—but it can also increase capital intensity. It’s another example of the same “long-term control vs. short-term cost” tradeoff that analysts are debating.
What to watch next for Texas Instruments stock
As TXN trades near $179 on Dec. 22, the stock’s next meaningful move is likely to be driven by a handful of very specific signals:
- Industrial demand tone: Are customers still in “wait-and-see,” or does order activity pick up? [20]
- Gross margin and depreciation narrative: Do new fabs look like a margin tailwind yet—or still a near-term headwind (the core of several bearish calls)? [21]
- Sherman ramp pace: TI has said SM1 ramps with customer demand—investors will watch for any traction that shows the fab is becoming economically meaningful. [22]
- January earnings and 2026 outlook: The late-January report is the next major “reset point” for forecasts and targets. [23]
- Analyst dispersion: With targets ranging widely (roughly $125 to $260 depending on dataset), new notes can still move sentiment quickly. [24]
Bottom line on Dec. 22: TXN is trading like a strategic winner with a cyclical question mark
Texas Instruments stock is being pulled by two credible narratives at once:
- Strategic strength: SM1 production in Sherman and a broader multi-fab U.S. investment plan underscore TI’s commitment to scale, control, and long-term supply reliability. [25]
- Cyclical caution: Revenue and EPS guidance from the last earnings cycle, combined with ongoing tariff-related uncertainty and mixed end-market signals, keep investors focused on the pace of recovery and near-term margin path. [26]
That tension is precisely why Wall Street is split—ranging from Goldman’s bearish $156 view to multiple targets clustering around $185–$195. [27]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.ti.com, 4. www.ti.com, 5. www.ti.com, 6. www.ti.com, 7. www.ti.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.insidermonkey.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. markets.businessinsider.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. markets.businessinsider.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.slickcharts.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.ti.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.ti.com, 23. markets.businessinsider.com, 24. markets.businessinsider.com, 25. www.ti.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.barrons.com
