Key facts: Thai Airways (OTC: TAWNF) officially resumed trading in August 2025 after five years of suspension, sparking a massive share rally [1]. On its first day back (Aug 4), the stock jumped ~216% intraday (from ~THB3 to THB10.50) [2], and continued to climb (closing ~THB13.40 by Aug 7, giving a ~THB379 bn market cap) [3]. The airline emerged from court-supervised restructuring in mid-2025 with about THB190 bn of remaining debt (nearly THB94 bn repaid) [4]. Importantly, Thai has reported operating profits every quarter since 2023 [5]. In Q2 2025, net profit (including one-off items) was THB12.13 bn, versus THB0.31 bn a year earlier [6] [7]. Thai has heavy growth plans – it ordered 45 new Boeing 787-9 widebodies (plus options for 35 more) [8] – and aims to double its fleet by 2033. With a leaner cost base and a broadened route network, analysts are forecasting strong earnings (e.g. THB32–33 bn normalized profit in 2025–26 [9] [10]).
1. Recent Stock Performance (2025)
Thai Airways’ stock performance in 2025 has been dramatic. Trading resumed on August 4, 2025, and the stock immediately surged. Reuters reports that shares rose 216% on that first day, ending at THB10.50 (from ~THB3 before suspension) [11]. The rally continued: by August 7 the stock closed at THB13.40 [12], reflecting a fourfold gain from the relisting price. On the US OTC market, the ADR (TAWNF) echoed this jump (from essentially zero to roughly USD0.45 by mid-August), though quotes stabilized around USD0.40 (equivalent to ~THB12) by September [13] [14]. Volume was heavy (hundreds of millions of baht daily) as investors caught on to the turnaround story. Since then (into Q3 2025), the stock has traded in a range roughly THB10–13 (USD0.35–0.45), reflecting profit-taking after the initial spike but still far above pre-relief levels [15] [16].
This extreme volatility stems from pent-up demand and speculative interest. Given the tiny float (many shares were locked with creditors) and lack of recent trading history, prices have been erratic. But the overall trend since relisting has been strongly upward: Thai Airways’ market cap (THAI.BK) briefly made it one of the largest SET-listed companies (≈THB379 bn by Aug 7) [17]. For OTC investors, the key takeaway is that TAWNF has been highly sensitive to news – both on operational results and macro factors – and remains volatile.
2. Key Financials and Earnings
Thai Airways’ financials show a sharp turnaround. After a string of losses in the 2010s, the carrier has returned to profitability on an operating basis and is benefiting from post-COVID travel demand. For the full year 2024, THAI reported a net loss of about THB26.9 bn [18] (mainly due to non-recurring charges in the restructuring); in contrast, 2023 saw a net profit (~THB28 bn) as restructuring began to take effect [19]. However, the recent focus is on 2025: in Q2 2025, revenue (excluding one-offs) was THB44.82 bn, up ~1.9% year-on-year [20]. Operating profit (before finance costs, ex one-offs) jumped 71.8% to THB10.18 bn (a 22.7% EBIT margin) [21]. Net profit was THB12.13 bn (including some one-off gains), compared to only THB0.31 bn in Q2 2024 [22]. For H1 2025, revenue was THB96.45 bn (up 7.2% YoY), and net profit soared 702% to THB21.97 bn (vs THB2.73 bn year-ago) [23].
These results were driven by strong demand on key routes (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Denpasar, etc.), a higher load factor (Q2 2025: 77.0% vs 73.2% a year earlier) [24], and cost savings (fuel prices fell, and efficiency gains reduced maintenance and other expenses) [25]. Debt servicing costs are still significant (THAI’s TFRS-9 finance costs were THB3.39 bn in Q2 2025, down from THB4.79 bn a year prior) [26]. Notably, cash and equivalents grew (to THB120.0 bn by June 30, 2025) [27], and shareholders’ equity recovered to THB67.55 bn [28]. This improved balance sheet – plus the gradual reduction of ~THB190 bn debt via conversions and paydown [29] – underpins forecasts that Thai can sustain profits.
In summary, Thai Airways’ recent financial performance has exceeded expectations. The airline has produced operating profits every quarter since 2023 [30]. Q2 2025 in particular delivered much higher earnings, which has tilted consensus estimates upward for 2025 and 2026 (see Expert Forecasts below).
3. Restructuring Progress & Post-COVID Recovery
Thai Airways’ recovery hinges on its restructuring plan (started in 2020) and its operational revival. Under court supervision, THAI wrote down many losses, cut debt, and streamlined operations. By June 16, 2025 the court formally ended its rehabilitation programme [31]. Since emerging from restructuring, THAI has shed about half its workforce, trimmed its fleet (from ~103 to 85 aircraft), and sold non-core assets [32] [33]. The government’s share was also diluted – Thailand’s finance ministry now holds only ~38.9% of THAI (down from ~47.9% in late 2024) [34] – meaning THAI is effectively private and free of many state-enterprise constraints.
These measures have drastically improved THAI’s cost structure. Management highlights that Thailand’s national carrier had been chronically unprofitable since 2012, largely due to heavy competition and inefficiencies [35]. The turnaround involved bringing in new leadership (including veteran bankers and former executives) and “elevating operational standards” [36]. Indeed, THAI reported its first quarters of operating profit (before interest) since well before the pandemic, and has met or beat break-even in 2023–24. CEO Chai Eamsiri has emphasized that the carrier is now “strategically positioned for robust, stable, and sustainable growth,” with a focus on service quality and governance [37].
The company now has a sizeable fleet (about 78–85 jets) and is expanding selectively. In 2024–25 THAI ordered 45 Boeing 787-9s (with options for 35 more) to modernize its long-haul fleet [38]. In mid-2025, THAI signaled it may exercise some of those options as part of US trade negotiations (using aircraft purchases in tariff diplomacy) [39]. Such big orders, plus planned leasing of additional widebodies, indicate THAI’s commitment to rebuild capacity, albeit on a controlled schedule. (There are noted headwinds: global aircraft shortages and supply-chain delays could slow expansion plans.)
Overall, the restructuring has given THAI a clean balance sheet and a new growth platform. As Reuters notes, the airline left bankruptcy and is pushing to become a regional hub (a goal aligned with Thailand’s tourism strategy) [40]. The change from state-owned to private has been hailed by insiders as a “pivotal new chapter,” allowing faster decisions – one former director urged even full privatization to avoid bureaucratic delays [41].
4. Analyst Forecasts and Expert Opinions
Market analysts have quickly revised their forecasts bullishly. Broader optimism stems from the robust 1H results and the post-restructuring cost base. For instance, Asia Plus Securities now projects THAI’s normalized net profit (ex one-offs) at about THB32.0 bn for 2025 (a growth of nearly 50% versus flat 2024), and about THB33.0 bn in 2026 [42]. Similarly, Maybank Securities raised THAI’s earnings outlook (up 13% for 2025 and 7% for 2026) [43]. UOB Kay Hian initiated coverage in Sept 2025 with a “Buy” rating and a THB17.00 target price (roughly 17% above the then-current THB14.50 market price) [44].
Analysts cite several drivers:
- Cost structure improvement. THAI has far fewer aircraft types (moving to mostly Boeing and Airbus standard types) and a much leaner workforce. This promises lower maintenance and staffing costs relative to pre-2020 levels [45]. Fuel is still about one-third of expenses, but analysts expect stable or lower oil prices in 2025–26 to help net margins [46].
- Expanded route network. Management is aggressively opening or restoring routes in Europe and India, tapping markets that have recovered faster than China. CEO Chai notes that growth from Europe/India is offsetting the slump in Chinese tourists [47]. (Tourism data showed Chinese visitor numbers down ~39% YoY in July 2025 [48], but THAI’s diversified focus is cushioning the impact.) The airline is also ramping up Asian regional flights and codeshares. Analysts view this network diversity as a competitive strength.
- High dividend potential. With much debt converted to equity, many creditors now own shares at a high cost basis (THB2.5452 per share). Asia Plus suggests this creates an incentive for THAI to pay dividends (starting possibly in 2026) to discourage sell-offs after lock-up periods [49]. A payout ratio of ~25% could mean THB0.28–0.29 per share, about an 11% yield vs. the creditor conversion price [50]. In a sector where dividends are rare, the lure of a double-digit yield is notable.
Despite the enthusiasm, analysts caution that 2H2025 earnings may be softer (due to seasonality and high 1H comparisons) [51]. Boonyakorn Amornsank of Maybank points out H1 profits already hit ~56% of the full-year forecast, implying a second-half slowdown [52]. But even in a modest case, forecasts for 2025 remain for a multi-billion-baht profit, with 2026 growth returning to normal.
5. Competitive Position in Southeast Asia
Thai Airways sits in the fiercely competitive Southeast Asian aviation market. The region is dominated by low-cost carriers (e.g. AirAsia, Lion Group, VietJet) that have rapidly expanded since the 2000s. These LCCs aggressively compete on price and feed point-to-point travel, capturing much of the intra-Asia market. Reuters observes that budget carriers have grown so fast that Asian airfares fell ~12% in 2024 [53] and airlines’ net margins remain very thin (~1.9% in Asia-Pacific, compared to ~3.7% global average) [54]. Even before COVID, THAI was losing market share on short-haul routes to budget rivals; as Reuters notes, Thai had “been making losses since 2012 as competition from budget carriers eroded its market share” [55].
On long-haul routes, Thai competes with full-service peers like Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific, and with the Middle Eastern carriers. Its premium product (Royal Silk, Royal First) can command loyalty, but THAI must compete on costs too. The restructuring aimed to address this: THAI’s new strategy leans on fuel-efficient narrow-bodies (A320neos, etc.) for regional routes and modern wide-bodies (777s, 787s) for long haul [56] [57]. By cutting overhead and focusing on profitable segments, THAI hopes to regain some competitive edge.
The Chinese travel market has weakened (political incidents cut Chinese tourist numbers), but analysts note that THAI’s broader route map (to Europe, Australia, India, etc.) is insulating it [58]. In effect, Thai Airways is no longer solely reliant on inbound China flow. Meanwhile, as the national carrier of a major tourist destination, THAI benefits from Thailand’s strong tourism infrastructure and is supported by government (e.g. joint promotions), even if no longer state-owned.
In summary, Thai Airways still faces an intense competitive environment with tight margins. Its success will depend on sustaining high load factors and yields against LCC pressure, and on how efficiently it can operate its expanded network. Current trends (strong leisure travel, the airline’s leaner cost base, and no mandated traffic growth targets as a private company) suggest the company is in a better position than ever. But any large oversupply (fleet orders region-wide) or cost shocks (fuel, currency) could squeeze profit margins.
6. Key Risks and Opportunities
Opportunities: The main opportunity is the global travel rebound. Southeast Asia is projected to see robust tourism growth in coming years. Thai Airways, with its Bangkok hub, is poised to capture premium international traffic. Fleet modernization and network expansion (to China, India, Europe, Australia) should drive revenue. The expected ability to pay dividends could attract long-term investors seeking yield (an unusual angle for airlines). Also, being largely private-operator now, THAI can move faster – as one former director noted, it can now bypass lengthy bureaucratic approvals that once slowed decisions [59]. If management hits its targets, THAI may reclaim profitability levels and regional market share.
Risks: Key risks include macro and industry factors. Fuel price spikes would hurt profitability (fuel is ~30–35% of costs). The Asian aviation market remains highly competitive; new entrants or aggressive pricing by LCCs or Gulf carriers could pressure yields. There’s also execution risk: THAI must manage growing pains of expansion (e.g. leasing interim aircraft, hiring/training pilots) while controlling costs. Delays in delivery of new jets (not uncommon industry-wide) could strain capacity. On the financial side, although much debt has been restructured, THAI still carries sizeable obligations (THB190 bn). Any global slowdown or geopolitical shocks (e.g. resurgence of pandemic travel restrictions, although unlikely by 2025) could dampen demand. Seasonality also matters: analysts expect earnings in H2 2025 to ease from the strong H1 baseline [60] [61].
In addition, the float remains small and many new shareholders came in as creditors; lock-up expirations and potential stock overhangs (incentivized by high dividend yields) could add volatility. Finally, airlines are exposed to currency risk (THAI earns many revenues in foreign currencies but reports in baht). A significantly stronger baht could hurt reported profits, though interest costs (some in USD) might drop in that case.
7. Recent News and Developments
Resumption of trading: On Aug 4, 2025 THAI’s stock officially resumed on the SET [62]. The Stock Exchange of Thailand removed it from the delisting list, lifting the suspension [63]. In its first day back, trading volume was heavy and the price spike reflected exuberance. The company’s statement called the relisting “a pivotal new chapter” and stressed that THAI is now “positioned for robust, stable, and sustainable growth” [64].
Fleet & network plans: THAI continues expanding routes and refreshing its fleet. In late 2024 THAI ordered 45 Boeing 787-9s, with an option for 35 more [65]. In discussions with U.S. trade negotiators, THAI hinted it might exercise some options as part of tariff concessions [66]. Separately, THAI is adding narrow-body jets: it plans to receive 32 A321neos starting 2026 [67], to serve highly profitable medium-haul markets. The airline’s ultimate goal is a 93-aircraft fleet by 2026 (up from ~78) and 150 by 2033 [68], aiming to fill booming demand in Asia.
Leadership & ownership: In July 2025 THAI appointed Piyasvasti Amranand (former energy minister and ex-THAI CEO) to the restructuring committee, and later named Lavaron Sangsnit as chairman [69] [70]. The finance ministry reduced its stake to ~38.9% [71], meaning THAI will be run like a private firm. Former director Banyong Pongpanich (quoted by Bangkok Post/VnExpress) urged completely removing government shareholding to speed up decisions [72]. This change pleased investors who long complained of politicized management.
Recent results: Thai Airways’ Q2 2025 results (released late July) stunned the market. Revenue rose modestly, but costs fell and profits jumped (see Financials). The stock market reacted strongly to these results: in the days after relisting, THAI’s share price had risen “more than 400%” from the suspension price [73], reflecting the sharp beat of expectations. Analysts from KGI and Asia Plus highlighted the improved earnings mix and cost cuts driving this outperformance [74] [75].
External environment: THAI has also leveraged regulatory improvements: the U.S. upgraded Thailand’s aviation safety rating, although THAI said it has no immediate plans to resume direct U.S. routes [76]. On the other hand, regional events have caused disruptions: in late Sept 2025, Typhoon Ragasa forced cancellation of some flights to Hong Kong and Taiwan (Bangkok Post) – a minor tactical hiccup. Overall, macro trends (ongoing Asia travel growth vs. spot geopolitical issues) continue to influence THAI’s short-term outlook.
In summary, Thai Airways’ 2025 performance and outlook combine a dramatic stock-market turnaround with solid fundamentals. The company’s successful exit from restructuring, coupled with booming travel demand, has led to outsized stock gains and upward analyst revisions [77] [78]. While significant debt remains and competition is fierce, THAI’s revamped business model and fleet renewal present a meaningful long-term opportunity. Investors should watch closely for upcoming earnings releases and any shifts in travel trends, but for now the narrative is one of a phoenix rising from the ashes – and analysts have set aggressive profit and price targets accordingly [79] [80].
Sources: Financial and company data from Reuters, Bloomberg, Nation Thailand and Bangkok Post reports [81] [82] [83] [84]; analyst forecasts from Thaiger and Kaohoon [85] [86]; industry context from Reuters/SCMP [87] [88]; and relevant news quotes as cited.
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