Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) had a rough session on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, with shares sliding sharply and closing well off the prior day’s levels—an attention-grabbing move for a company that sits at the crossroads of offshore energy activity, vessel day rates, and investor expectations for 2026.
Below is a full, up-to-date wrap of today’s news, the latest forecasts and price targets, and the key fundamental and market drivers shaping sentiment around Tidewater stock right now.
What happened to Tidewater stock today (Dec. 16, 2025)?
TDW finished the day lower, with trading data showing a decisive downside move:
- Open: $55.07
- High: $55.44
- Low: $52.26
- Close: $52.59
- Day change:-6.89%
- Volume: 494,745 shares [1]
Intraday coverage described a similar picture: TDW trading down about 6.4%, hitting lows in the $52.3–$52.4 area during the session. That same report noted lighter-than-usual trading volume versus typical activity—something traders often interpret as a fast repricing, but not necessarily a “capitulation” day. [2]
The “quietly loud” detail: volume
One widely circulated market note pegged TDW’s mid-session volume at roughly 167k shares, far below an average around 963k shares, at least by that service’s tracking. [3]
By the close, total volume rose to about 495k shares—still not huge compared with TDW’s more active sessions, but enough to confirm the selloff was real, not a data glitch. [4]
Today’s TDW headline: the selloff itself is the news
As of Dec. 16, 2025, the most current widely distributed “stock-specific” headline is straightforward: TDW fell hard today. [5]
Notably, there was no obvious same-day company press release driving the move. So when TDW drops ~7% without a fresh headline, the market is usually reacting to some mix of:
- sector-wide risk sentiment (energy services can get hit in waves),
- positioning and liquidity (who needed to sell today),
- lingering digestion of earnings + guidance,
- and occasionally technical levels that trigger momentum selling.
That last category matters because TDW has been actively followed by technical screens in recent weeks.
The fundamental backdrop investors are still digesting: Tidewater’s Q3 2025 results and 2026 outlook
The most recent official operating and guidance detail still shaping the narrative comes from Tidewater’s third-quarter 2025 update (results for the nine months ended September 30, 2025).
Key metrics from that report include:
- Revenue: $341.1 million (Q3 2025) [6]
- Average day rate:$22,798 per day, up modestly year-over-year [7]
- Net loss:$0.8 million (with management noting impacts including a $27.1 million loss on early extinguishment of debt tied to a refinancing) [8]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$137.9 million [9]
- Operating cash flow: $72.1 million; Free cash flow: $82.7 million [10]
Guidance that matters (because it frames 2026 expectations)
Tidewater also updated and initiated guidance ranges that investors continue to use as their “base case”:
- 2025 revenue guidance:$1.33B to $1.35B
- 2025 gross margin guidance:49% to 50%
- 2026 revenue guidance:$1.32B to $1.37B
- 2026 gross margin guidance:48% to 50% [11]
And on capital returns:
- Share repurchase authorization outstanding:$500 million [12]
What management highlighted operationally
In plain English: Tidewater described a quarter where vessel uptime beat expectations, overall performance came in strong on cash generation, but day rates softened modestly in certain regions (specifically called out were the North Sea and West Africa) even while other operating areas saw meaningful day-rate increases. [13]
That mix—strong cash flow, some regional rate softness—sets the stage for why 2026 is being debated.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street (and data aggregators) expect next
Here’s where it gets interesting: different forecasting hubs show different averages, mainly because they may track different analysts, update cycles, and methodologies.
MarketBeat’s consensus (8 analysts)
- Average 12-month price target:$67.50
- High / low target: $70.00 / $65.00
- Implied upside was listed as meaningful versus today’s depressed trading level. [14]
A MarketBeat summary also described the rating mix as roughly: 1 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell (based on that service’s compilation). [15]
Investing.com’s consensus (6 analysts)
- Average 12-month price target:~$62.83
- High / low estimate: $75 / $45
- Consensus rating: “Neutral” (with a mix of buys, holds, and at least one sell). [16]
Zacks’ published target range
Zacks listed:
- Target range:$53 to $75 (with an average target shown relative to the last closing price on its page). [17]
Because TDW just repriced lower today, any “upside from last close” math can change quickly—so it’s best to treat those target ranges as directional, not as a precision instrument.
Recent price-target adjustment worth knowing
One widely circulated recap noted Evercore ISI lowered its price objective (example: from $67 to $65) and kept an “in-line” style rating in the wake of recent developments. [18]
Market positioning: short interest remains notable
TDW is not the most shorted stock in America, but it’s also not a sleepy, ignored name.
One widely used market tracker reported that as of Nov. 14, 2025:
- Short interest: ~4.40 million shares
- Short interest as % of float:~9.51%
- Days to cover: ~4.0 [19]
That doesn’t guarantee anything dramatic, but it does mean TDW can see fast moves when sentiment flips—up or down.
Why TDW can swing like this: the Tidewater business model in one paragraph
Tidewater is a marine services company best known for operating a major fleet of offshore support vessels (OSVs) that serve offshore energy exploration and production activity worldwide. [20]
The stock tends to trade like a real-time polling machine for:
- offshore project momentum,
- vessel availability and utilization,
- day-rate pricing power,
- and management’s capital allocation (especially buybacks).
When markets get nervous about offshore demand (or when investors decide they want less cyclical exposure this week), TDW can move quickly.
Today’s move in context: what the market may be actually pricing
No single public headline explains the Dec. 16 drop with a neat bow. But there are a few plausible, non-mystical forces that fit the evidence:
1) The stock hit a sudden air pocket
A ~7% single-day drop with sub-average volume often signals a “gap in buyers” more than a flood of new sellers. [21]
That can happen when:
- a few large orders hit the tape,
- bids are thin,
- and short-term traders step away at the same time.
2) Investors are still debating the 2026 setup
Tidewater’s guidance implies a 2026 that is still healthy—but not necessarily accelerating, depending on where actual utilization and day rates land. [22]
Add in management’s acknowledgment that some regions saw modest softening, and you get a stock that can be “fundamentally fine” while still being emotionally volatile.
3) The stock has been on technical traders’ radar
Earlier in December, a technical screen (Investor’s Business Daily’s RS Rating system) highlighted improving relative strength and described the stock as building a base with a potential breakout level above the low-to-mid $60s. [23]
Now compare that framing to today’s close near $52.6: for technical traders, that’s not “almost breaking out.” That’s “back in the chop zone,” which can invite fast repositioning.
Other current TDW-related headlines circulating in December 2025
Beyond today’s price-drop coverage, the current headline ecosystem around Tidewater has included a cluster of institutional ownership/positioning stories (often tied to filings and portfolio updates) across early to mid-December. [24]
For example, one roundup noted a new position taken by Caxton Associates LLP. [25]
These items don’t always change the company’s fundamentals, but they can influence short-term narratives—especially when a stock is already moving sharply.
What to watch next for Tidewater stock (the practical checklist)
Here’s what typically matters most for TDW from here—especially heading into 2026:
Day rates and utilization, region by region
Tidewater’s own commentary matters here: modest rate softening in some regions, but improvements elsewhere, plus better uptime driving revenue. [26]
If investors see evidence that day rates are stabilizing (or re-accelerating) into mid/late 2026, TDW tends to benefit.
Buybacks as a volatility buffer (or accelerant)
A meaningful repurchase authorization can support per-share metrics and sometimes adds “dip-buyer confidence,” but it also creates expectation risk: if buybacks slow while the stock drops, sentiment can sour quickly. Tidewater reported $500 million still authorized. [27]
Balance sheet and refinancing after-effects
The company explicitly tied a material earnings impact to refinancing-related items (loss on early debt extinguishment). [28]
Investors will keep watching whether debt costs and capital structure changes help or hinder flexibility going forward.
Macro: offshore project cadence, not just oil price headlines
OSV demand is ultimately tied to offshore activity levels and project pipelines. Even when crude prices zigzag daily, offshore investment cycles can move on slower, stickier timelines—sometimes cushioning the business, sometimes delaying the pain.
Bottom line
On Dec. 16, 2025, Tidewater (TDW) stock posted a sharp one-day decline—closing around $52.6 after trading as low as $52.26—without an obvious same-day corporate headline to “explain” the move. [29]
The bigger picture is that the market is still calibrating TDW against a real set of fundamentals: strong cash flow generation, guidance that frames 2026 as solid but not explosively accelerating, and a sizable buyback authorization—while analysts’ price targets cluster in the low-to-high $60s on some services, with a wider spread on others. [30]
In other words: today looked like a sentiment and positioning wave—fitting for a company literally built around offshore waves—while the next sustained direction likely comes from day rates, utilization, and how convincingly the 2026 outlook holds up in real operating data.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. investor.tdw.com, 7. investor.tdw.com, 8. investor.tdw.com, 9. investor.tdw.com, 10. investor.tdw.com, 11. investor.tdw.com, 12. investor.tdw.com, 13. investor.tdw.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.zacks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. investor.tdw.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. investor.tdw.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. investor.tdw.com, 27. investor.tdw.com, 28. investor.tdw.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. investor.tdw.com
