Tilray Brands (TLRY) Soars After Reverse Stock Split and Cannabis Bill Hopes: Stock Forecast, Price Targets and 2026 Outlook

As of December 10, 2025

Tilray stock rebounds 12% after brutal selling

Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY; TSX: TLRY) just reminded investors how violently cannabis stocks can move.

On Tuesday, December 9, 2025, TLRY jumped about 12.4% to close around $8.09, sharply outperforming a flat broader market. Trading volume topped 8.6 million shares, above the 50‑day average of roughly 7.8 million. Even after that rally, Tilray’s share price is still about 65% below its 52‑week high of $23.20, reached on October 9. ^[1]

The surge followed weeks of heavy selling. On December 3, the stock fell 8.4% to $7.06, marking its fourth straight daily loss, and on December 8 it slipped another 2.0% to $7.20. ^[2] Over the past month, Tilray is still down roughly 38%, and over the past year it’s off about 32%, according to ChartMill performance data. ^[3]

So, what changed this week—and does it actually fix anything fundamental?

Florida home‑grow bill and U.S. reform chatter spark renewed optimism

Tuesday’s rebound did not come out of nowhere. A key psychological driver was fresh U.S. policy news.

A Florida state senator introduced a bill that would allow registered medical cannabis patients aged 21 and older to grow up to six cannabis plants at home. ^[4] On its own, that bill doesn’t create a major revenue stream for Tilray. But traders read it as another sign of continued normalization of cannabis in large U.S. states.

At the same time, Tilray’s moves remain tightly tethered to the federal rescheduling debate in the United States:

Earlier in 2025, President Trump signaled openness to reclassifying cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule II, which briefly ignited a sharp rally in Tilray and other cannabis names. ^[5]
More recently he has gone quiet on the issue, and that silence is one factor commentators have linked to Tilray’s steep pullback from its October high. ^[6]

A recent technical piece on TradingView/Invezz noted that Tilray’s share price had collapsed from $23.15 on October 9 to around $7.20, and warned that a “death cross” (50‑day moving average crossing below the 200‑day) could signal more downside unless a major policy or company catalyst arrives. ^[7]

Tuesday’s double‑digit bounce is exactly the sort of move that can occur when sentiment is extremely negative, short interest is meaningful, and any hint of positive policy momentum shows up.

The 1‑for‑10 reverse stock split: what changed and why it matters

The other huge piece of context: Tilray just executed a 1‑for‑10 reverse stock split.

On November 26, 2025, Tilray announced that it would implement a previously approved 1‑for‑10 reverse split of its common stock. ^[8]
The split became effective at 4:01 p.m. ET on December 1, and shares began trading on a split‑adjusted basis on December 2 under the same ticker, TLRY, with a new CUSIP (88688T209). ^[9]
The move reduced the share count from roughly 1.16 billion to 116 million, shrinking the number of outstanding shares by 90% while leaving the company’s total market value unchanged. ^[10]

Tilray’s board had already sought and received shareholder approval for a reverse split at a ratio between 1‑for‑10 and 1‑for‑20 earlier in 2025. The primary driver was the company’s non‑compliance with Nasdaq’s $1.00 minimum bid price rule, flagged by a notice on March 25, 2025. ^[11]

Tilray itself has framed the split as having three objectives:

regain Nasdaq listing compliance,
“align” its share count with peers and make the stock more palatable to institutional investors, and
save up to $1 million per year on administrative costs related to shareholder meetings. ^[12]

The split also affected Tilray’s Frankfurt and Vienna listings. On the Vienna Stock Exchange, for example, a 10‑for‑1 split took effect on December 10, with the old ISIN (US88688T1007) and symbol TLRY replaced by a new ISIN (US88688T2096) and short code TLR2. ^[13]

From a valuation perspective, reverse splits do not change the underlying business. But historically they’re often associated with distressed or highly speculative companies. In fact:

Investopedia highlighted that Tilray’s shares fell more than 20% in the short Friday session preceding the split announcement and were down nearly 40% year‑to‑date at that point, despite earlier optimism tied to rescheduling chatter. ^[14]
A summary of a Simply Wall St. note observed that Tilray shares remained under pressure in the days immediately after the split, with investors focusing on ongoing losses and dilution rather than the cosmetic share‑price change. ^[15]

So while the reverse split solved the Nasdaq listing problem, it did not magically fix Tilray’s fundamentals.

Fundamentals: modest revenue growth, huge impairment, and negative cash flow

Tilray’s recently reported fiscal 2025 (year ended May 31, 2025) gives the clearest view into the business.

According to the company’s July 28 results:

Net revenue: $821.3 million, up 4% year‑over‑year (or 6% to $833.7 million in constant currency). ^[16]
Gross profit: $240.6 million, up 8%, with a 29% gross margin. ^[17]
Adjusted EBITDA: $55.0 million, down modestly from $60.5 million the prior year. ^[18]
Reported net loss: a huge –$2.18 billion, driven primarily by $2.10 billion in non‑cash impairment charges on goodwill and intangibles originally booked around the 2021 Aphria–Tilray merger at much higher cannabis valuations. ^[19]

Viewed on a trailing twelve‑month basis, StockAnalysis estimates:

Revenue around $830.8 million,
Net loss around –$2.15 billion,
Operating income about –$88 million,
Free cash flow roughly –$97 million,
Profit margin about –259%. ^[20]

In plain language: Tilray is growing modestly, not rapidly, and remains solidly unprofitable on a GAAP and cash‑flow basis.

Where Tilray really makes its money now: not just cannabis

One of the stranger aspects of Tilray today is that it’s no longer just a cannabis stock.

Fiscal 2025 revenue by segment looked like this: ^[21]

Cannabis: $249.0 million (≈30% of total),
Beverage (beer, spirits, THC drinks): $240.6 million (≈29%),
Distribution: $271.2 million (≈33%),
Wellness: $60.5 million (≈7%).

Cannabis revenue actually declined year‑over‑year (from $272.8 million), as Tilray deliberately pulled back from lower‑margin wholesale and vape categories to protect margins. Yet cannabis gross margin expanded from 33% to 40%, reflecting that strategic shift. ^[22]

Beverage revenue rose 19% to $240.6 million, helped by the acquisition of four craft beer brands from Molson Coors (Hop Valley, Terrapin, Revolver, Atwater). But margins compressed as these newer brands tended to be lower‑margin initially, and Tilray deliberately rationalized SKUs, shaving around $20 million from top‑line sales in exchange for better profitability. ^[23]

On the balance sheet side:

Tilray ended fiscal 2025 with about $256 million in cash and marketable securities and had paid down roughly $100 million of debt year‑to‑date. ^[24]
StockAnalysis now estimates about $265 million in cash vs. $324 million in debt, for a modest net debt position and a current ratio of 2.6. ^[25]

So liquidity looks reasonably solid, but the company is still burning cash, and its recent multi‑billion‑dollar impairment underscores how far expectations have fallen since the last cannabis hype cycle.

Strategic pivot: craft beer, hemp‑THC drinks and “house of brands”

Recent press releases and investor presentations flesh out Tilray’s vision for itself as a “global lifestyle and CPG platform” spanning beverages, cannabis and wellness. ^[26]

Some key elements:

Tilray positions itself as the #1 cannabis company in Canada by revenue, using that domestic base as a launching pad for global expansion. ^[27]
Its beverage platform now includes a long list of craft beer and spirits brands, from Breckenridge Whiskey and Montauk Brewing to SweetWater Brewing, along with ready‑to‑drink cocktails and non‑alcoholic offerings. ^[28]
In the U.S., Tilray has leaned heavily into hemp‑derived Delta‑9 THC drinks, using its beer distribution network to reach about 13 states and 1,300 retail points as of fiscal 2025. ^[29]

December’s Holiday Drink Gift Guide press release is more than festive marketing: it reads like a catalog of Tilray’s beverage empire, highlighting craft beers, spirits, hemp‑derived THC seltzers and non‑alcoholic “mocktails,” all under the Tilray umbrella. ^[30]

From a strategy perspective, Tilray is clearly betting that:

Cannabis remains tightly regulated, so beverages and wellness can provide more steady cash flows, and
Hemp‑derived THC drinks offer a quasi‑legal bridge into the U.S. psychoactive market ahead of full cannabis federal reform.

But that second pillar is now under threat.

New U.S. hemp crackdown: a growing risk to Tilray’s U.S. growth story

A late‑November 2025 piece by The Motley Fool warned that the U.S. government has passed legislation to crack down on hemp‑derived THC products, closing loopholes originally created by the 2018 Farm Bill. ^[31]

According to that analysis and related coverage:

Congress passed, and the President signed, a bill that industry experts say will effectively ban most hemp‑derived THC products. ^[32]
Implementation timelines suggest that by November 2026, many hemp‑based THC drinks and edibles could be treated as controlled substances, not wellness products. ^[33]

Since Tilray has touted itself as a leader in hemp‑based THC beverages, using them as a wedge into the U.S. market, this crackdown represents a material strategic risk. If regulators eventually shut that door, Tilray’s U.S. psychoactive ambitions would again depend heavily on federal cannabis rescheduling or full legalization.

TLRY stock forecasts: big upside on paper, but with big caveats

Despite the carnage in the share price, analyst and model‑based price targets still imply substantial upside—at least on paper.

Traditional Wall Street consensus

TickerNerd, summarizing 16 Wall Street analysts, reports a median 12‑month price target of $18, with a range from $8.50 to $25.00. That implies about 120% upside from roughly $8.09. The ratings skew to 3 Buy, 5 Hold and 1 Sell, which nets out to a “neutral leaning bullish” stance. ^[34]
A TradingView consensus forecast shows a similar average target in the mid‑teens (around $16–17, with lows near $8.50 and highs in the mid‑20s). ^[35]
A recent Fintel‑based note on Nasdaq says the average one‑year target has been revised up to $17.20 from $1.89 (pre‑split numbers), implying about 138% upside from a reference price of $7.22, with analyst targets spanning $8.58 to $26.25. ^[36]

Longer‑term revenue and earnings projections

WallStreetZen aggregates analyst estimates that call for: ^[37]

Revenue to reach about $881 million in the next year (+6%), and around $957 million in three years (+15% vs. today).
EPS to remain negative over the next two years (–$0.05 and –$0.03 on average), turning positive around year 3 (≈$0.36).

In other words, the analyst community collectively expects slow but steady revenue growth and gradually improving profitability, but no near‑term earnings bonanza.

Algorithmic anomalies

Some data aggregators have thrown off eyebrow‑raising numbers—StockAnalysis, for example, shows an average price target of $150, implying over 1,700% upside, and claims that 87% of shares outstanding are sold short. ^[38]

Those figures clearly conflict with more grounded sources:

MarketBeat, Benzinga and ShortInterestTracker all put Tilray’s short interest near 9% of the float, with a days‑to‑cover ratio around 2.4, in line with a moderately shorted mid‑cap stock, not a meme‑stock extreme. ^[39]

Given the upheaval around the reverse split, investors should treat outlier targets and percentages with caution and prioritize cross‑checked data.

Technical picture: “death cross” warnings vs. oversold bounce

Technically, Tilray is in a downtrend with violent counter‑rallies:

Invezz/TradingView noted that the stock ran from a split‑adjusted low of $3.58 in June to $23.15 in October, then collapsed back to the high single digits. ^[40]
The share price recently broke below prior support at $10.35, with both the 50‑day and 200‑day EMAs rolling over toward a classic “death cross” formation. ^[41]
Momentum indicators like the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator have dropped into oversold territory, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has climbed, suggesting a strong but stretched downtrend. ^[42]

From a chartist’s perspective:

Bears argue the path of least resistance could still be down toward the $5 area, especially if regulatory news disappoints or the January earnings report underwhelms. ^[43]
Bulls counter that any positive surprise on rescheduling, hemp rules, or earnings could force shorts to cover and drive a sharp squeeze back above the $10.35 resistance zone, which would invalidate the most bearish technical setup. ^[44]

Given Tilray’s historical volatility (5‑year beta ≈2.1), neither side should underestimate how fast the narrative can flip. ^[45]

Key catalysts to watch in early 2026

Several events over the next 12–18 months could heavily influence TLRY’s trajectory:

Next earnings report (early January 2026)
Different data providers peg the upcoming earnings date between January 8 and January 12, 2026; Nasdaq, Zacks and multiple broker platforms cluster around January 9, while Yahoo Finance lists January 8 and some services show later estimated dates. ^[46]
Earnings will be closely watched for:
- progress on margins and cash flow,
- updated 2026 guidance versus the prior $62–72 million adjusted EBITDA target, and
- commentary on hemp‑THC drinks after the U.S. crackdown bill. ^[47]
Implementation of the U.S. hemp crackdown
The law that could effectively ban most hemp‑derived THC products by November 2026 is a potential game‑changer for Tilray’s U.S. beverage strategy. ^[48]
Any concrete move on U.S. cannabis rescheduling
Markets reacted strongly to earlier hints from President Trump that he was considering rescheduling cannabis; they’ve since faded as he’s gone quiet. A definitive decision—either way—would likely move Tilray and its peers dramatically. ^[49]
Execution on cost savings and beer portfolio rationalization
Tilray is in the middle of “Project 420,” integrating its craft beer brands and rationalizing SKUs, with a $33 million cost‑savings target and about $24 million already realized. The company also cut some underperforming beverage brands, which will trim revenue by an estimated $20 million this fiscal year. ^[50]
International cannabis expansion
Management is heavily emphasizing international growth, particularly in Europe, the Middle East and parts of Asia, both for cannabis and non‑alcoholic beverages. Progress here could offset some of the uncertainty in North America. ^[51]

Major risks for Tilray shareholders

For all the upside in the analyst spreadsheets, the risk side of the ledger is non‑trivial:

Regulatory whiplash: Tilray’s investment case is still highly sensitive to political decisions in Washington and Ottawa. The same rescheduling optimism that fueled the rally to $23 has now given way to disappointment and volatility. ^[52]
Hemp crackdown fallout: If hemp‑derived THC products are effectively banned in the U.S. by late 2026, Tilray’s carefully built distribution for THC drinks could face severe restrictions or require a complete strategic rethink. ^[53]
Persistent dilution and negative cash flow: Shares outstanding have increased about 19% year‑over‑year even before factoring in the reverse split, and Tilray continues to post negative free cash flow. ^[54]
Execution risk in beverages: Craft beer is a crowded, slow‑growth market, and Tilray has already warned of revenue hits from trimming its beverage lineup. MarketWatch highlighted an 11.7% stock drop earlier in 2025 when the company announced cuts to underperforming drink brands. ^[55]
Valuation vs. quality: While the stock now trades at under 1x trailing sales (P/S about 0.9 and EV/Sales around 1.2), profitability metrics like –10.6% operating margin and –259% net margin show a business that isn’t yet earning its keep. ^[56]

Several commentators, including analysts at The Motley Fool and Seeking Alpha, have argued that Tilray may still be more of a speculation on regulation than a straightforward value story, even after the sell‑off. ^[57]

Is Tilray stock a buy after the reverse split?

Tilt the lens one way, and TLRY looks like a classic deep‑value turnaround:

Sub‑1x sales multiple,
Solid liquidity and a manageable debt load,
A global distribution network in both cannabis and beverages,
Analysts modeling a gradual march toward break‑even EPS within a few years,
Consensus price targets roughly 2x today’s share price. ^[58]

Tilt it the other way, and it looks like a high‑volatility macro trade:

Revenue growth only in the mid‑single digits,
Heavy dependence on political decisions about hemp and cannabis,
Large non‑cash write‑downs signaling that past deal‑making destroyed capital,
A history of share dilution and negative free cash flow. ^[59]

For investors, the key questions are:

Do you believe U.S. cannabis policy will evolve in a way that meaningfully benefits Tilray before its cash‑flow and impairment headaches catch up to it?
Do you think Tilray’s hybrid strategy—craft beer + cannabis + hemp‑THC drinks—can deliver consistent, high‑margin growth, or is it a collection of individually tough markets?

Until those questions are clearer, TLRY will likely remain a high‑beta, event‑driven stock—capable of days like Tuesday’s 12% surge, but also of equally violent reversals.