Data and commentary up to 7 December 2025, with a focus on developments and analysis published since 6 December 2025. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
A pivotal week for Tilray: reverse split, sell‑off and a 90% six‑month surge
Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) has just gone through one of the most consequential stretches in its recent history.
After shareholders approved it back in June, the company finally executed a 1‑for‑10 reverse stock split, effective after the market close on 1 December 2025. Trading on a split‑adjusted basis began on 2 December, cutting the number of outstanding shares from roughly 1.16 billion to about 116 million, with no fractional shares issued and small odd‑lots cashed out. [1]
Tilray’s stated objectives: align its share count with peers, make the stock more attractive to institutional investors and save up to $1 million per year in shareholder‑meeting costs. [2]
Markets were not thrilled. When the split was formally scheduled in late November, Tilray shares plunged more than 20% in one shortened trading session, extending their year‑to‑date loss to nearly 40% even before the split took effect. [3]
Yet zoom out, and the story is more complicated. A fresh analysis published on 6 December on Nasdaq by The Motley Fool notes that Tilray’s stock has still climbed about 90% over the past six months, powered by optimism around U.S. cannabis rescheduling under President Donald Trump and by Tilray’s first reported quarterly profit in years. But the same piece warns that the rally sits on shaky foundations given years of poor execution and a newly hostile U.S. regulatory stance on hemp‑derived THC products. [4]
At the same time, MarketBeat’s 6 December “Top Cannabis Stocks to Research” list flags Tilray, Akanda and Canopy Growth as the cannabis names drawing the highest recent dollar trading volume—an indication that traders are paying very close attention to TLRY after the split. [5]
In short: liquidity is high, sentiment is conflicted and the capital structure has changed overnight—a mix that can make or break speculative stocks.
Why Tilray reverse‑split its stock
Reverse stock splits are rarely done from a position of strength, and analysts have been quick to point that out.
According to Tilray’s own release and subsequent coverage, the 1‑for‑10 reverse split was designed to: [6]
- Move the nominal share price higher to reduce the risk of delisting and to “align” the share count with companies of similar size.
- Make TLRY more appealing to institutional holders, some of whom avoid very low‑priced shares.
- Cut administrative costs tied to annual shareholder meetings, with management estimating up to $1 million in annual savings.
Investopedia’s explainer on the move underscores the other side of the coin: reverse splits are typically read as a bearish signal, because they often follow prolonged share‑price declines. Tilray stock was at one point up nearly 60% for 2025 after Trump publicly floated the idea of reclassifying marijuana, but has since given back those gains as regulatory uncertainty and new restrictions on hemp‑derived THC products emerged. [7]
Benzinga’s coverage of the announcement captured investors’ reaction in real time: shares sold off immediately after the split was confirmed for 1 December, even before the mechanical change took effect, as traders worried it signalled management had few other levers left to restore momentum. [8]
Reverse splits don’t change the underlying business. But they reset the optics: the stock looks “more expensive,” the float is smaller, and percentage moves can feel sharper—especially in a name as volatile as TLRY.
How TLRY is trading after the split
With only a few days of split‑adjusted trading in the books, price discovery is still underway.
Recent data points from analyst and news reports show:
- On 4 December, MarketBeat reported Tilray shares trading around $7.22, up 2.3% on the day, with intraday highs near $7.38 and volume running about 77% above the recent average. [9]
- Investing.com, citing InvestingPro figures in a 4 December note, said the stock was around $6.93 and had fallen more than 31% over the prior week as markets digested the split and sector‑wide cannabis weakness. [10]
- A Nasdaq/Motley Fool article two days earlier observed that TLRY had already fallen about 66% from its 52‑week high, even after a big mid‑year rally tied to U.S. rescheduling hopes. [11]
Taken together, the numbers suggest that post‑split TLRY is hovering around the mid‑single‑digits to low‑$7 range, with intense volatility and heavy turnover.
A separate technical‑analysis service, Intellectia.ai, notes that as of 7 December, Tilray’s moving‑average profile is mixed: its 20‑day average still sits above the 60‑day (a bullish sign), but three of four monitored moving‑average signals are negative overall, pointing to a “more bearish” underlying trend. Their model identifies support around $6.35 and $4.94, with resistance near $10.92 and $12.34. [12]
Latest Wall Street price targets: wide dispersion and fresh upgrades
Despite the chaos, analysts have been busy updating their Tilray models to reflect the reverse split and new financials.
TD Cowen: Target cut, Buy rating maintained
On 4 December, TD Cowen lowered its post‑split price target to $10 (from a pre‑split equivalent of $25) while keeping a Buy rating. The firm’s new valuation is based on a 12× EV/EBITDA multiple applied to next‑twelve‑months EBITDA of about $80 million. [13]
However, Cowen also highlighted several headwinds:
- A “challenging craft beer category backdrop” weighing on Tilray’s beverage unit.
- Intensifying competitive pressure in Canadian cannabis, which constrains pricing power and market share. [14]
Even after cutting the target, TD Cowen’s $10 implies meaningful upside from the roughly $7 trading range cited in recent reports.
Fintel/Nasdaq: average target hiked to $17.20
A separate note syndicated via Nasdaq on 5 December reported that the average one‑year price target for Tilray had been revised to $17.20, up dramatically from $1.89 before the split adjustment—an 810% revision once the corporate action was incorporated into models. That new consensus implies about 138% upside from a recent closing price of $7.22. [15]
The same piece highlights strong institutional interest:
- 369 funds and institutions now report positions in Tilray, up 4.24% in the last quarter.
- Total institutional shares have risen nearly 15% over the last three months, to about 153.7 million shares.
- A put/call ratio of 0.15 suggests options traders are still skewed bullish. [16]
Legacy forecasts still catching up to the split
Not all data providers have fully adjusted their public dashboards to the new share structure:
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month target of $1.95 with a high of $2.50 and a low of $0.85, implying about 51% upside from a last quoted price of $1.29 based on three recent analyst calls (two Buys, one Sell). [17]
- Public.com lists a $1.50 price target and a “Buy” consensus from two analysts as of 7 December, explicitly warning that forecasts are updated as new data arrive. [18]
Both these sets of numbers reflect pre‑split price levels; on a split‑adjusted basis, they would be roughly ten times higher (e.g. a $1.50 target corresponds to about $15.00 after the 1‑for‑10 split). Until every provider refreshes its models, investors need to check whether a given target is pre‑ or post‑split.
Fundamentals: improving margins, but profits are still fragile
Underneath the noisy share price, Tilray is trying to prove it can grow revenue and eventually generate sustainable earnings. The latest available results offer a mixed but improving picture.
Q2 FY2025 (quarter ended 30 November 2024)
In January 2025, Tilray reported record Q2 net revenue of $211 million, up 9% year‑on‑year, or 10% in constant currency. Gross profit jumped 29% to $61 million, lifting the consolidated gross margin to 29% from 24% a year earlier. [19]
Segment details underline the company’s shift toward beverages and branded consumer products: [20]
- Beverage alcohol net revenue rose 36% to $63 million, with gross margin improving to 40% (42% on an adjusted basis).
- Cannabis net revenue was roughly flat at $66 million, but cannabis gross margin climbed from 31% to 35%.
- Distribution net revenue was about $68 million, with margin nudging up to 12%.
- Wellness revenue grew 13% to $15 million, with a 31% gross margin.
On the bottom line, Tilray posted a net loss of $85 million for the quarter, but about $75 million of that was non‑cash, including FX, amortization and stock‑based compensation. Adjusted net loss narrowed to just $2 million, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $9 million, down slightly year‑on‑year due to SKU rationalisation in the beverage segment. [21]
Management reaffirmed full‑year FY2025 revenue guidance of $950 million to $1 billion, leaning heavily on continued beverage growth and efficiency gains from its “Project 420” synergy plan for acquired craft beer assets. [22]
Q1 FY2026: a rare net profit
More recently, TD Cowen’s note summarised Tilray’s first‑quarter FY2026 results: net revenue of about $210 million, up 5%, and a net income of $1.5 million, a sharp swing from a $34.7 million loss a year earlier. Revenue also beat forecasts by roughly 2.4%. [23]
That one profitable quarter is part of what powered the 90% six‑month share‑price gain cited in the 6 December Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis—but the author there warns that one swallow does not make a summer, and that Tilray has a long history of inconsistent organic revenue growth and persistent net losses. [24]
Tilray’s evolving identity: from pure cannabis to beverages and THC drinks
A big part of the Tilray thesis in 2025 is no longer just about dried flower or medical cannabis exports; it’s about being a beverage and THC‑drinks platform.
- A July 2025 Reuters investigation described Tilray as the fourth‑largest U.S. craft brewer, with brands including Montauk and Shock Top, and reported that the company is selling hemp‑derived THC seltzers through its existing beer distributors across 13 U.S. states. CEO Irwin Simon told Reuters that no clear market leader has emerged yet, and that Tilray aims to become that leader. [25]
- These strategic moves tie back to the Q2 FY2025 numbers, where beverage revenue grew 36% year‑on‑year and carried a 40% gross margin, significantly higher than cannabis in percentage terms. [26]
The opportunity is real: Euromonitor data cited in the same Reuters piece suggests hemp‑based THC beverages could surpass $1 billion in U.S. sales in 2025 and exceed $4 billion by 2028, even as traditional beer, wine and spirits see volume declines. [27]
But so are the risks. Several U.S. states have restricted or banned certain hemp‑THC drinks, and Trump has signed legislation cracking down on hemp‑derived intoxicants, a move that Motley Fool notes is “terrible news” for Tilray’s burgeoning THC‑beverage business. [28]
In other words, Tilray’s pivot toward beverages and THC drinks could either insulate it from traditional cannabis volatility or expose it to a whole new set of regulatory and competitive shocks.
What the latest analyses say: opportunity or value trap?
Several new deep‑dive pieces published in early December try to answer the question on every trader’s mind: is Tilray finally cheap, or still a value trap?
Motley Fool (Dec 4 & Dec 6): still very cautious
- The 4 December article “Down 66% From Its High, Can Tilray Brands Stock Turn Things Around?” argues that Tilray has vastly under‑delivered on its own growth promises, notably a 2021 plan to reach $4 billion in annual revenue by 2024 (actual trailing‑12‑month revenue is closer to $831 million). It highlights ongoing operating losses and thin organic growth, concluding that TLRY remains a highly speculative stock unsuited to most investors. [29]
- The 6 December piece “This Stock‑Split Stock Is Up 90% in the Past 6 Months: Is There More Upside Ahead?” is even more blunt: despite the recent run‑up and the reverse split, the author expects Tilray to remain a “wealth destroyer” over the next five years, citing regulatory uncertainty, slow progress on U.S. legalization, and Tilray’s uneven execution. [30]
Simply Wall St (Dec 6): undervalued on DCF, but risky
Simply Wall St’s updated DCF‑based analysis takes a more optimistic view on valuation. Using a two‑stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model that forecasts Tilray shifting from a $93.4 million cash outflow to positive free cash flow by 2030, the platform calculates an intrinsic value of roughly $11.24 per share. With the current market price well below that level, their model implies the stock trades at about a 36% discount, and they label TLRY as “UNDERVALUED” on that metric—while stressing the ongoing operational and regulatory risks. [31]
Technical forecasts: short‑term downside, long‑term scepticism
Intellectia.ai’s pattern‑based forecast is notably cautious:
- For the next month, their model projects a roughly ‑23% move based on historical correlations with another stock’s price pattern.
- For December 2026, they forecast an average price of $0.49, with a range of $0.44–$0.55, although these longer‑dated numbers appear to still be on a pre‑split basis and should be treated with caution. [32]
At the same time, Intellectia’s overall technical score for TLRY is currently “Buy”, with six buy signals and four sell signals, reflecting the stock’s tendency to stage violent rallies even in the context of a broader downtrend. [33]
MarketBeat and others: “Hold” overall
MarketBeat’s 4 December trading update notes that two analysts rate TLRY a Buy, three a Hold and two a Sell, for an average rating of “Hold” and an average target around $20—again likely based on pre‑split or partially adjusted inputs. [34]
Their 6 December cannabis‑sector overview emphasises that while Tilray is one of the most traded cannabis stocks right now, the entire group comes with “elevated volatility and significant regulatory, banking, and profitability risks.” [35]
Key risks and catalysts to watch after 6 December 2025
For investors following TLRY from 6 December onward, the latest news and analysis point to several critical swing factors:
- Post‑split trading behaviour
- Does the stock stabilise above technical support in the mid‑$6 range, or do sellers push it down to test lower levels highlighted by quantitative models? [36]
- Execution on profitability
- Can Tilray follow up its Q1 FY2026 net profit with additional profitable quarters, or was this a one‑off driven by accounting and non‑recurring factors? [37]
- Beverage and THC‑drinks growth vs. regulation
- Tilray’s ambitions in THC beverages could be a major growth engine, but new laws restricting hemp‑derived THC could undercut that story quickly. [38]
- Cannabis rescheduling and U.S. policy
- Hopes for U.S. cannabis rescheduling have repeatedly boosted the stock, even though Tilray’s core cannabis business remains outside the U.S. Any concrete regulatory shift—or disappointment—could trigger another sharp repricing. [39]
- Investor base and options activity after the split
- With a smaller float and a low put/call ratio, options markets currently lean bullish, but that positioning cuts both ways if sentiment turns. [40]
Bottom line: what the December 2025 picture suggests
Putting the latest news, forecasts and analyses together, Tilray Brands in early December 2025 looks like:
- A company with improving margins and a more diversified revenue base, especially in beverages and wellness, but still fighting to achieve consistent, sizable profits. [41]
- A stock that has rallied strongly over six months, yet remains far below past highs and has required a reverse split to stay in the good graces of exchanges and institutions. [42]
- An equity where valuation signals are surprisingly positive (DCF models and some analyst targets imply large upside), but where fundamental analysts remain deeply divided about whether that gap will ever close. [43]
For aggressive, risk‑tolerant traders, TLRY’s combination of high volatility, a reset share structure and a crowded options market may be attractive—especially if they have a clear view on U.S. cannabis policy and the THC‑beverages opportunity.
For more conservative investors, the latest round of analysis (particularly from Motley Fool and others) is a reminder that Tilray has repeatedly disappointed against lofty expectations and that reverse splits are often symptoms, not cures, of long‑running problems. [44]
Either way, anyone considering TLRY should treat December 2025 as a fresh starting point: the share count, trading dynamics and regulatory backdrop have all shifted, and past price levels need to be read through the lens of the new 1‑for‑10 structure. As always, independent research and a clear understanding of your own risk tolerance are essential before committing capital.
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.reddit.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. tilray.gcs-web.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. intellectia.ai, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. public.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.globenewswire.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. simplywall.st, 32. intellectia.ai, 33. intellectia.ai, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. intellectia.ai, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.nasdaq.com, 40. www.nasdaq.com, 41. www.globenewswire.com, 42. www.nasdaq.com, 43. simplywall.st, 44. www.nasdaq.com
