Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) has spent December doing what cannabis stocks do best: moving fast, arguing loudly with gravity, and reacting to headlines like they’re caffeine. As of Wednesday, December 24, 2025, TLRY is trading around $10.53.
The reason investors keep refreshing their screens is simple: U.S. federal cannabis policy may be shifting in a meaningful (but not instantly transformative) way. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on December 18, 2025 directing the process to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, a move that could eventually reduce tax burdens and ease certain business constraints across the sector. [1]
For Tilray, the story is more nuanced than “rescheduling = immediate revenue boom.” TLRY remains a Canada-based cannabis operator with a growing portfolio that includes medical cannabis internationally, U.S. hemp-based products, and a sizable U.S. craft beverage footprint—so the near-term impact depends on how quickly U.S. rules actually change, and how Tilray positions itself for compliant entry. [2]
Below is what’s driving Tilray stock right now, the latest company updates, what analysts are forecasting, and the key dates and risks investors are watching into early 2026.
TLRY Stock Today: Price, Momentum, and Why Volatility Won’t Quiet Down
TLRY is trading around $10.53 on December 24, with modest day-over-day movement.
The bigger picture is that Tilray shares have dramatically outperformed their own recent history during the second half of 2025. Multiple market analyses note the stock is up sharply from mid-year levels, with much of the rally tied to shifting expectations around U.S. federal policy and sector-wide sentiment. [3]
But the same policy catalyst that can send cannabis stocks soaring can also yank them back down in the same day. Reuters reported that on December 18, several cannabis names—including Tilray—fell at the close after initially rising, as investors digested that the executive order directs the next steps rather than instantly changing the law. [4]
The Biggest Catalyst: Trump’s Cannabis Rescheduling Executive Order
What the order does
The executive order signed on December 18, 2025 pushes the federal government toward moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which would place cannabis in a category that recognizes medical use and carries a lower perceived risk profile than Schedule I substances. [5]
Importantly, the order directs the Attorney General to hasten the process, and the DEA must review and decide on the reclassification—so the market is responding to a policy pathway, not an overnight switch. [6]
What it doesn’t do
Even with Schedule III, the change does not federally legalize cannabis. That means key constraints remain, including how cannabis can be manufactured and distributed under federal law. [7]
Market commentary has repeatedly emphasized this gap between “progress” and “full legalization,” which is a major reason TLRY and peers have stayed volatile even after the executive action. [8]
Why Schedule III Matters to Cannabis Stocks: Taxes, Research, and Capital Access
The 280E tax issue is the headline inside the headline
One of the most immediate economic implications of Schedule III is tax-related. Under current rules, many cannabis businesses have been subject to Section 280E, which limits deductions for companies dealing in Schedule I or II controlled substances. Reuters notes that moving to Schedule III would mean cannabis firms would no longer be subject to 280E, potentially improving profitability metrics—at least for businesses that are directly affected by U.S. cannabis taxation. [9]
TIME also reported that reclassification could allow legal cannabis businesses to claim deductions for business expenses and cited an estimate (via Viridian Capital Advisors) of around $800 million in annual savings for the top U.S. cannabis companies—a sector-level figure that helps explain why the whole group moved on the news. [10]
Research barriers could loosen
The executive order and Schedule III framework could reduce friction for cannabis-related medical research—an argument the administration and many industry stakeholders are leaning on heavily. [11]
Banking and institutional access: possible, but not automatic
Reuters also explains that rescheduling could help unlock access to funding over time and reduce stigma, but many banking issues still depend on additional steps—potentially including legislation like the SAFER Banking Act. [12]
Tilray’s Company News: U.S. Medical Push, Earnings Date, and Product Updates
Tilray launches “Tilray Medical USA”
Immediately after the federal rescheduling development, Tilray Medical (a division of Tilray Brands) announced the formation of Tilray Medical USA, Inc., positioning it as a vehicle for future compliant participation in the U.S. medical cannabis landscape. [13]
In that announcement, Tilray highlighted:
- A global medical cannabis footprint (including 200+ registered medical cannabis products in international markets),
- 500,000+ registered patients served globally,
- Participation in 15+ medical cannabis studies and clinical trials. [14]
The company framed rescheduling as an “incremental step” and emphasized compliance and medical-grade formats, which is consistent with the idea that U.S. entry—if it comes—will likely be structured around regulated medical channels rather than an immediate nationwide consumer rollout. [15]
Next major date: Tilray Q2 FY2026 results on January 8, 2026
Tilray announced it will report financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2025 on Thursday, January 8, 2026, after the market closes, followed by a conference call at 4:30 PM ET. [16]
For TLRY stock, this is the next “hard data” catalyst after a month dominated by policy headlines and positioning.
December product news: Redecan launches Amped Live Resin Liquid Diamond Vapes
Tilray also pushed operational/product updates through its brands. On December 11, 2025, the company announced that Redecan launched Amped Live Resin Liquid Diamond 1g 510 cartridges in Canada (Ontario and Alberta initially), with national distribution planned for early 2026. [17]
In markets like cannabis, product and distribution execution rarely move the stock like federal policy does—but they matter when investors re-focus on fundamentals, margins, and competitive positioning.
Reverse Stock Split: What Changed for TLRY Shareholders
Tilray implemented a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, effective after market close on December 1, 2025, with split-adjusted trading beginning December 2, 2025 under the same ticker (TLRY) and a new CUSIP. [18]
According to Tilray’s release, the split reduced outstanding shares from approximately 1.16 billion to 116 million, with no fractional shares issued (cash paid in lieu of fractional shares). The company said the move aims to better align its share count with peers, improve attractiveness to institutional investors, and reduce annual meeting costs—targeting up to $1 million in annual run-rate savings. [19]
Investopedia also noted the common market interpretation: reverse splits can be seen as bearish signals even though they do not change the underlying value of shareholders’ holdings by themselves. [20]
Practical note for investors: reverse splits often cause temporary confusion in charts, price targets, and historical comparisons—because some data feeds adjust immediately and others lag. If you see wildly inconsistent targets or “impossible” upside/downside math, stale split adjustments are often the culprit.
Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets: What Wall Street Is Saying Now
Analyst commentary shifted quickly after the December 18 executive order and Tilray’s U.S. medical announcement.
Bernstein: price target lifted to $10 (Market Perform)
Investing.com reported that Bernstein raised its price target to $10 from $1 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, explicitly tying the update to cannabis rescheduling developments and noting Tilray’s formation of Tilray Medical USA. [21]
That same report also referenced Tilray’s strong six-month performance and the broader policy backdrop (including public opinion polling) as context for why cannabis equities re-rated so sharply this month. [22]
TD Cowen: price target cut to $10 from $25 (Buy maintained)
In the same Investing.com coverage, TD Cowen was cited as adjusting its price target for Tilray to $10, down from $25, while keeping a Buy rating—suggesting a “yes to the theme, but with tempered expectations” stance amid sector volatility and execution risk. [23]
Options and Near-Term Forecast Signals: The Market Is Bracing for Big Swings
Beyond analyst notes, the options market is also signaling expectations for large moves.
A Barchart analysis in mid-December pointed to elevated implied volatility, noting that option contracts expiring March 20 implied a move on the order of 50%, with an example bull case level referenced around $21.22. [24]
Whether you treat options as “smart money” or “paid chaos insurance,” the takeaway is the same: the market expects TLRY to remain a headline-driven volatility machine, especially as earnings and policy milestones approach.
The Bull Case vs. Bear Case for Tilray Stock Heading Into 2026
Bull case: Tilray becomes a legitimate U.S. medical cannabis contender (over time)
The optimistic pathway is that Schedule III (plus follow-on regulatory clarity) eventually makes U.S. medical cannabis a more scalable, research-driven industry—and Tilray uses its international medical playbook to build a compliant U.S. presence through Tilray Medical USA. [25]
Bulls also point to Tilray’s diversification: the company already has U.S. hemp-based offerings and a meaningful U.S. craft beverage distribution footprint, which some market commentary argues could become strategically useful if cannabis-adjacent products expand through legal channels. [26]
Bear case: The policy move is real, but Tilray’s direct U.S. THC upside is still limited
One of the more pointed critiques (including in mainstream investor commentary) is that rescheduling may not immediately change Tilray’s fundamentals, because the company does not currently generate U.S. revenue from federally illegal marijuana sales. [27]
In other words, TLRY can rally on U.S. reform optimism, but proving durable upside requires clarity on:
- the exact regulatory timeline,
- what forms of cannabis commerce become permissible,
- and whether Tilray can compete against entrenched U.S. operators once the door opens. [28]
What to Watch Next: The 5 Events That Could Move TLRY Stock
- DEA rescheduling process milestones (draft rules, timelines, implementation details). [29]
- Any concrete details on CBD policy changes, including the reported Medicare/CBD pilot concept and FDA actions. [30]
- Tilray earnings on January 8, 2026—numbers, guidance, and commentary on U.S. plans. [31]
- Evidence of U.S. strategy execution, including partnerships, acquisitions, or compliant product pathways tied to Tilray Medical USA. [32]
- Volatility indicators from options markets as traders reprice risk around earnings and regulatory news. [33]
Bottom Line
As of December 24, 2025, Tilray Brands stock is being valued less like a steady consumer-products company and more like a real-time referendum on U.S. cannabis reform.
The December 18 executive order is significant because it meaningfully advances the Schedule III pathway—but it is not immediate legalization, and the market has already shown it will punish any gap between “headline hope” and “bureaucratic reality.” [34]
Tilray’s own moves—launching Tilray Medical USA, confirming an earnings date of January 8, and having just completed a 1-for-10 reverse split—give investors plenty of near-term catalysts, and plenty of reasons to expect continued volatility. [35]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.fool.com, 3. www.trefis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. time.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. time.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. time.com, 11. time.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.barchart.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.fool.com, 27. www.fool.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.washingtonpost.com, 31. www.globenewswire.com, 32. www.globenewswire.com, 33. www.barchart.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.globenewswire.com
