Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) stock is back in the spotlight on December 17, 2025, as cannabis stocks react—again—to fast-moving headlines around potential U.S. federal marijuana rescheduling. In the latest session, TLRY traded around $13.94, up roughly 27% on the day, after swinging between about $10.32 and $14.54—a reminder that Tilray remains one of the market’s most headline-sensitive, momentum-driven names.
So what changed this time? A cluster of reports and follow-on commentary about President Donald Trump and a possible executive order aimed at reclassifying marijuana—paired with the stock’s own structural catalysts (notably its recent 1-for-10 reverse split)—is amplifying both upside and downside reactions.
Below is a complete, publication-ready rundown of the current news, forecasts, and market analyses circulating as of Dec. 17, 2025, and what investors are watching next.
Why Tilray stock is moving: executive-order reports and “Schedule III” optimism
The immediate driver is renewed speculation that President Donald Trump may move toward reclassifying cannabis at the federal level. Reuters reported that Trump is expected to sign an executive order “as soon as this week” that would fast-track marijuana reclassification, citing NBC News and people with direct knowledge of the plans. Reuters also noted Trump told reporters he was considering the move, with an emphasis on enabling cannabis research. [1]
This follows earlier Reuters coverage describing how a rescheduling shift could reshape the industry—potentially lowering taxes and making it easier to secure funding—while also underscoring that the sector remains constrained by federal rules that limit banking relationships and institutional participation. [2]
Investopedia captured the market’s “risk-on” interpretation of the same theme: cannabis stocks surged on reports that marijuana could be reclassified from Schedule I to Schedule III, while also stressing the crucial caveat that no final decision had been made, citing a White House spokesperson. [3]
What “Schedule III” would mean—and what it wouldn’t
The reason traders treat “Schedule III” headlines like rocket fuel is that rescheduling is widely seen as a potential pressure-release valve for the industry:
- Taxes: Investopedia notes that moving marijuana to Schedule III could reduce financial and regulatory pressure and help lower the industry’s tax burden. [4]
- Banking and payments: Investopedia also highlights that rescheduling could relax banking restrictions and expand access to financial services—potentially including more conventional payment options. [5]
- Research: Reuters specifically mentioned the reclassification could allow for cannabis research, which is currently constrained under Schedule I treatment. [6]
But rescheduling is not a magic wand. A key point that’s often missed in the hype cycle: rescheduling is not the same thing as federal legalization of recreational marijuana, and major regulatory and market-structure barriers could remain even in a Schedule III scenario. [7]
The Tilray-specific twist: reverse split + retail momentum = bigger swings
Even by cannabis-stock standards, Tilray has been unusually volatile lately—and part of that is mechanical.
Tilray implemented a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, effective after the close on Dec. 1, 2025, with trading on a split-adjusted basis beginning Dec. 2, 2025, while keeping the ticker TLRY. The company said the split was intended to align shares outstanding with similarly sized companies, improve institutional appeal, and reduce annual meeting-related costs—targeting up to $1 million in annual run-rate savings. [8]
Reverse splits don’t change a company’s underlying value by themselves, but they do change the “shape” of trading—often making a stock feel more expensive per share, while concentrating price movement into larger dollar swings. That matters a lot when the main catalyst is political/regulatory headlines that can reverse intraday.
As of the latest snapshot on Dec. 17, TLRY’s 52-week range sat roughly between $6.60 and $15.35, with the stock pressing toward the top end during the latest spike.
“Today’s tape”: price, volume, and the volatility signature
TLRY’s latest move has the classic profile of a momentum event:
- Price: about $13.94
- Day move: about +27%
- Intraday range: roughly $10.32 to $14.54
- Volume: roughly 47 million shares
Market data trackers also showed exceptionally strong near-term performance readings (week and half-year performance metrics have been extreme), reinforcing that this is not a slow, fundamentals-only repricing—it’s a headline-driven surge with heavy speculative participation. [9]
Options market forecast: traders are pricing big moves into year-end and beyond
Derivatives traders are also projecting unusually large potential swings.
A Barchart analysis published Dec. 16 reported that “option traders are pricing a nearly 22% move in Tilray stock before the end of 2025,” tying the move to Trump’s comments about reclassifying cannabis to Schedule III. The same piece adds that options expiring March 20 imply an even larger move and describes a bullish scenario in which shares could reach the low $20s. [10]
In plain English: the options market is effectively telling you, “this thing can rip higher—or snap back—fast.” Which is consistent with how TLRY has traded around prior regulatory catalysts.
Technical analysis: strong trend signals, but “overbought” warnings are flashing
On the technical side, Investing.com’s indicator dashboard (timestamped Dec. 17, 2025) rated TLRY as a “Strong Buy” on daily timeframes, with moving averages also showing a strong-buy configuration. At the same time, the 14-day RSI (relative strength index) registered around 75, a level typically flagged as overbought—often interpreted as “momentum is strong, but pullback risk is rising.” [11]
That combination—strong trend + overbought oscillators—is common in fast momentum events. It doesn’t predict a reversal by itself, but it does describe the market’s current physics: buyers have been aggressive, and late entries can be vulnerable if the headline narrative shifts.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets cluster above the market, but estimates vary by source
Analyst forecasts are notably mixed across platforms right now—partly because reverse splits can create short-term inconsistencies in how targets and historical numbers are displayed.
Two widely followed consensus snapshots as of mid-December show upside potential, but with different averages:
- MarketBeat: average 12-month price target $20.00 (range $10.00 to $30.00), implying meaningful upside from the current ~$14 zone. [12]
- Investing.com: average price target about $16.17 (range $8.50 to $25.00) with a split of ratings skewed toward Buy/Hold. [13]
The practical takeaway isn’t “pick your favorite number.” It’s that most mainstream forecasts imply TLRY is a high-dispersion stock—big possible outcomes in both directions—because its future depends heavily on regulatory pathways, capital markets, and profitability timing.
Earnings outlook: the next hard catalyst is already on the calendar
The next scheduled “fundamentals checkpoint” comes with Tilray’s next earnings report.
TipRanks lists Tilray’s next report date as Jan. 12, 2026 (after close), alongside a consensus EPS forecast of -0.21 for that quarter. Investing.com similarly lists Jan. 12, 2026 as the next earnings date and includes a revenue forecast around $210.39 million. [14]
For TLRY specifically, earnings often function as a reality check after big narrative-driven moves: guidance, margins, and cash flow tend to matter more once the headline adrenaline fades.
Company news: product launches and the “cannabis + beverage” strategy continues
While Washington headlines are dominating the stock tape, Tilray has also been active on the business-development front—especially in Canada and in its beverage portfolio.
Recent Tilray press releases include:
- A Dec. 11 launch from its Redecan brand: Amped Live Resin Liquid Diamond vape cartridges, with broader distribution targeted for early 2026. [15]
- A Dec. 4 release promoting its “Ultimate 2025 Holiday Drink Gift Guide,” spotlighting craft beverages, spirits, RTDs, and hemp-derived Delta-9 THC beverage products in its lineup. [16]
These announcements aren’t the main drivers of today’s price action, but they underline Tilray’s long-running investment thesis: it’s not purely a “Canadian cannabis producer” anymore—it’s built itself into a wider consumer packaged goods platform spanning cannabis, beverages, and wellness. [17]
The big risks investors are still pricing in
Tilray’s upside narratives are loud, but the risks are not subtle either:
- Regulatory whiplash: multiple reports—and official comments—have emphasized that no final decision has been made, which is exactly how rallies can stall or reverse. [18]
- Policy ≠ profits (immediately): even a Schedule III shift would take time to translate into better margins, cheaper capital, or new market access—and it may not equal legalization. [19]
- Volatility as a feature, not a bug: options pricing and technical “overbought” readings both point to an environment where sharp pullbacks can happen even in a broader uptrend. [20]
What to watch next on Dec. 17 and beyond
In the near term, TLRY’s direction is likely to hinge on three moving parts:
- Confirmation (or cooling) of the executive-order narrative reported by Reuters and others. [21]
- Whether the cannabis sector holds gains after prior reversals triggered by “no final decision” messaging. [22]
- Earnings on Jan. 12, 2026, which could re-anchor valuation around revenue trajectory, margins, and cash flow expectations. [23]
Tilray stock is doing what it often does when policy headlines hit: it’s trading like a referendum on the future of the U.S. cannabis market—despite operating across multiple geographies and categories. In the short run, that can be thrilling (and brutal). In the long run, the question remains the same: can Tilray convert regulatory tailwinds and brand breadth into durable profitability?
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. finviz.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.barchart.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.tipranks.com
