Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY; TSX: TLRY) is back in the spotlight heading into Monday’s U.S. market open (Dec. 15, 2025) after a policy-driven surge that reminded investors why cannabis-linked equities can move fast—often on headlines more than fundamentals.
In Friday’s regular session (Dec. 12), TLRY closed at $12.15, up about 44% on the day, after trading in a wide $10.32–$13.85 range on ~84.2 million shares. [1]
Here’s what matters most before the bell: the federal-policy catalyst behind the move, the “post–reverse split” reality that can distort charts and targets, what Tilray’s latest financials say about the business today, and the near-term setup around short interest and options positioning.
What just happened to TLRY: the policy headline that lit the fuse
Cannabis stocks ripped higher on Friday after the Washington Post reported that President Donald Trump is expected to push for dramatically looser federal marijuana restrictions—specifically, directing agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug. [2]
That matters because marijuana is currently classified as Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act, and moving it to Schedule III would represent a significant shift in how it is treated at the federal level. [3]
Two key details from Friday’s reporting are especially important for Monday:
- Timing risk is high. Reuters reported CNBC said an executive order could come as soon as Monday, but a White House official also said no final decisions had been made. [4]
- The “Schedule III” path still runs through agencies. Reuters noted HHS previously recommended moving marijuana to Schedule III and that the DEA must review the recommendation and decide on reclassification. [5]
Analysts quoted in the same Reuters report emphasized knock-on effects investors are already gaming out, including potential openings for more regulated cannabis products and the longer list of possible sector catalysts (more state legalization, safer banking, and eventual exchange uplisting for U.S. plant-touching companies). [6]
Why it matters for Tilray specifically: Tilray is not a pure-play U.S. multi-state operator (MSO); it’s a diversified cannabis + beverage + wellness company with major operations outside the U.S. Still, TLRY often trades as a high-beta proxy for the broader cannabis-policy narrative, which is why Washington headlines can overwhelm company-specific news in the short run.
First, a reality check: TLRY is newly post–reverse split (and that can skew everything you’re looking at)
Before comparing prices, targets, “52-week highs,” or historical moves, investors need to remember:
Tilray implemented a 1-for-10 reverse stock split that became effective after the close on Dec. 1, 2025, with shares trading split-adjusted on Dec. 2, 2025 under the same ticker TLRY, but with a new CUSIP (88688T209). [7]
The company said the reverse split was designed to, among other things:
- better align share count with peers,
- potentially make the stock more attractive to institutional holders,
- and reduce annual meeting-related costs (Tilray cited up to $1 million in annual run-rate savings). [8]
Mechanically, Tilray said the reverse split reduced outstanding shares from approximately 1.16 billion to 116 million, with cash paid in lieu of fractional shares. [9]
What this means for Monday morning:
Many data feeds update at different speeds. Some websites may still display older pre-split price targets (or pre-split share statistics). If you see targets that look “too low,” confirm whether they’re split-adjusted (a pre-split $1.50 target is effectively $15.00 post-split, for example).
Tilray’s fundamentals: what the business looked like before this week’s spike
Even if TLRY is trading like a policy option right now, fundamentals still matter—especially once headline momentum cools.
Fiscal 2025: diversified revenue base, improved cannabis margins, but big non-cash charges
In its fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, Tilray reported:
- Net revenue:$821.3 million (and $833.7 million in constant currency) [10]
- Gross margin:29% for the fiscal year [11]
- Cannabis net revenue:$249.0 million, with cannabis gross margin increasing to 40% (from 33% prior year) [12]
- Beverage net revenue:$240.6 million (up 19%) [13]
- Distribution net revenue:$271.2 million (up 5%) [14]
- Wellness net revenue:$60.5 million (up 9%) [15]
Tilray also highlighted liquidity of $256.4 million (cash + marketable securities) and said it had completed roughly $100 million of debt repayments to date. [16]
One important nuance: Tilray’s fiscal 2025 GAAP net loss was heavily influenced by non-cash impairment charges tied to goodwill and intangibles from prior acquisitions. [17]
That doesn’t disappear as a concern—impairments reflect past overpayment and a reset of expectations—but it’s different from a cash operating loss.
Management outlook: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance
Tilray guided to fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $62 million to $72 million, which it described as 13%–31% growth versus fiscal 2025. [18]
That guidance matters because it anchors the “operational turnaround” narrative management has been selling: margin improvement, tighter execution, and a steadier earnings profile despite cannabis price compression and shifting consumer demand.
The latest quarterly snapshot: Q1 FY2026 showed profit and cash-flow improvement, but margins slipped
Tilray’s most recent reported quarter (fiscal Q1 2026, reported Oct. 9, 2025) included:
- Net revenue:$209.5 million, up 5% year over year [19]
- Gross margin:27%, down from 30% [20]
- Net income:$1.5 million (vs. a net loss of $34.7 million a year earlier) [21]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$10.2 million, up 9% [22]
- Operating cash flow: cash used in operations improved to $(1.3) million from $(35.3) million [23]
- Balance sheet: Tilray said it reduced total debt by $7.7 million in the quarter and ended with $264.8 million cash; it also cited a 0.07x net-debt-to-trailing-adjusted-EBITDA ratio [24]
Segment-level performance in that quarter showed:
- Cannabis net revenue:$64.5 million (up 5%), with 36% cannabis gross margin [25]
- Beverage net revenue:$55.7 million (roughly flat YoY), with 38% beverage gross margin [26]
- Distribution net revenue:$74.0 million, with 11% distribution gross margin [27]
- Wellness net revenue:$15.2 million, with 32% wellness gross margin [28]
How to read this: Tilray’s quarter looked better on profitability and cash discipline, but the margin line shows the tradeoffs of operating across categories with very different economics (distribution is typically lower margin than branded cannabis or premium beverage).
Recent Tilray-specific news you should know (beyond the Trump catalyst)
1) A new cannabis product push in Canada: Redecan “Amped” vapes
On Dec. 11, Tilray announced the launch of Redecan Amped Live Resin Liquid Diamond 1g 510 cartridges, positioning the line as a premium-format vape product. [29]
Tilray’s release also cited category momentum, saying live resin vapes delivered 6.3% category growth over the past six months, and noted vape basket penetration tends to peak during December–February, aligning with the timing of the launch. [30]
The company said the product is currently offered in Ontario and Alberta, with national distribution scheduled for early 2026. [31]
2) Tilray’s “diversified CPG” message got refreshed with a new investor presentation
On Nov. 17, Tilray published an updated investor presentation framing its evolution into a diversified global consumer packaged goods platform spanning beverage, cannabis and wellness, highlighting operational excellence, margin enhancement, and global expansion. [32]
3) U.S. hemp-derived THC regulation remains a wildcard (and Tilray is publicly lobbying for “baseline” rules)
On Nov. 11, Tilray issued a statement criticizing hemp-related language in a recent U.S. government funding bill and urged Congress to adopt “sensible regulations” rather than bans, warning that overly restrictive measures could push products into unregulated markets. [33]
Two details investors may care about:
- Tilray said it supports a federal baseline framework with state flexibility and endorsed a cap of 10mg naturally derived delta‑9 THC per serving for hemp-derived beverages. [34]
- The company also said hemp-derived THC beverages represent a $1 billion U.S. industry—and added that hemp-derived THC products are not a material part of its revenue or adjusted EBITDA today, while referencing a one-year implementation period in the bill. [35]
Why it matters for TLRY: Investors sometimes assign Tilray “option value” on U.S. cannabinoid beverages because it owns beverage infrastructure and distribution. Regulatory tightening would likely reduce that optionality; regulatory clarity could improve it.
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see TLRY, and why targets may look inconsistent
Because of the reverse split, the most useful approach is to focus on targets that are clearly post-split and compare multiple sources.
Here’s what several widely followed aggregators currently show for TLRY (split-adjusted):
- MarketWatch analyst estimates: average target price $16.44 (10 ratings listed) [36]
- TradingView: analyst target $16.44, with estimates ranging $8.50–$25.00 [37]
- Fintel: average one-year price target $17.20, range $8.58–$26.25 [38]
- MarketBeat: consensus target $20.00 (7 analysts listed) and a consensus rating shown as Hold [39]
One telling example of the reverse-split distortion: Nasdaq published a note (sourced to Fintel) stating Tilray’s average one-year price target was revised to $17.20, a change described as an 810% jump from $1.89—a kind of math that can happen when pre-split targets are mechanically adjusted to a post-split share price. [40]
Bottom line on forecasts: The “middle of the pack” target range clusters in the mid-to-high teens, but the stock’s near-term direction may hinge more on federal-policy headlines and risk appetite than on incremental estimate tweaks.
Technical setup and positioning: why Monday could be volatile
Friday’s price/volume profile was extreme
TLRY’s Friday session wasn’t just “up big.” It was a wide-range, high-volume move:
- Close $12.15
- Intraday range $10.32–$13.85
- Volume ~84.2M shares [41]
Given Tilray’s post-split share count (about 116M outstanding), Friday’s volume implies a very high turnover day—exactly the kind of tape that can lead to fast follow-through or fast mean reversion depending on Monday’s news flow. [42]
Short interest and “short volume” are easy to mix up—here’s what to watch
- Short interest (positioning): Yahoo Finance lists shares short of about 11.03M (as of 11/28/2025) and short % of float around 9.58%. [43]
- Nasdaq short interest report (often shown pre-split): Nasdaq’s short interest page lists settlement dates including 11/28/2025: 110,308,856 shares short (which would align with ~11.03M on a 1-for-10 split-adjusted basis). [44]
- Short sale volume (activity, not total positioning): Fintel’s daily short volume data showed a short volume ratio above 50% on several December sessions (for example, it lists 59.11% on 12/12/2025 in the venues it tracks). [45]
If TLRY keeps attracting heavy retail participation, short covering and “gamma” dynamics can accelerate upside—while the same leverage can make downside drops equally violent if the policy catalyst fades.
Options activity is flashing “speculation”
MarketBeat reported that traders bought 167,580 call options on Friday—about 58% above average call volume. [46]
Fintel also showed an open-interest put/call ratio of 0.15, consistent with call-heavy positioning. [47]
A momentum datapoint investors are watching
Investor’s Business Daily reported TLRY’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating improved from 62 to 76 as of Friday, Dec. 12 (still below the “80+” level IBD often flags in stronger leaders, but moving in that direction). [48]
What to watch before (and right after) the Monday open
If you’re tracking TLRY into the Dec. 15 open, here are the highest-signal checkpoints:
- Any confirmation—or walk-back—on federal action
- The fastest way TLRY gaps again is if there’s an official update reinforcing the Schedule III narrative.
- The fastest way the rally fades is if markets conclude the reports were premature or politically uncertain. [49]
- Key near-term price levels from Friday
- Resistance: Friday’s high near $13.85
- Potential support zones: Friday’s low near $10.32 and the prior close region around $8.43 (Dec. 11 close). [50]
- Liquidity/volume at the open
- If volume stays elevated, expect larger swings and faster “gap-fill” attempts in both directions.
- Next earnings window
- Multiple trackers estimate Tilray’s next earnings around Jan. 9, 2026 (estimates vary by provider and the company may confirm later). [51]
- Ongoing regulatory cross-currents
- Tilray’s own messaging suggests it’s preparing for shifting U.S. hemp-derived THC rules—potentially a longer-term catalyst/risk separate from the Schedule III debate. [52]
Bottom line
Ahead of the Dec. 15 market open, Tilray Brands stock is trading like a headline-sensitive policy lever, not a slow-moving consumer products story. The Trump/Schedule III reporting is the immediate catalyst, but the setup is complicated by TLRY’s very recent reverse split, which can distort price history, targets, and share statistics across different platforms. [53]
For investors, the practical approach is to separate:
- Short-term drivers: policy confirmations, volatility, options/short dynamics, and key price levels; from
- Medium-term fundamentals: revenue mix across cannabis/beverage/distribution, margin trajectory, debt reduction, and the company’s FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range. [54]
References
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