Tonix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TNXP) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s wildest biotech stories: a tiny company that finally won U.S. FDA approval for a fibromyalgia drug after a 15‑year drought, launched it in the U.S., expanded the same molecule into major depressive disorder (MDD), and watched its stock price explode more than 10,000% over the last year. [1]
As of the latest close on Friday, 5 December 2025, TNXP stock finished at $19.64, up 0.56% on the day, with after‑hours trading nudging it to $19.80. Over the past week, the share price jumped about 23%, and the company’s market capitalization now sits around $200–230 million, depending on the source. [2]
Below is a news‑style breakdown of TNXP stock on 7 December 2025—covering latest company developments, current price and sentiment, as well as short‑ and long‑term forecasts from both Wall Street and algorithmic models.
Where TNXP Stock Stands on 7 December 2025
Recent data from several market platforms agree on the basic snapshot:
- Last regular-session close (5 Dec 2025): $19.64, +0.56% day‑over‑day
- After‑hours (5 Dec 2025): $19.80, +0.81% vs. the close [3]
- Market cap: ~$199.7M (Fintel basic stats) [4]
- 1‑year price change: +~11,000%; CoinCodex cites +10,884% and Fintel ~11,283% year‑over‑year. [5]
- 1‑year volatility: ~97% (Fintel) [6]
- Short interest: ~1.94M shares, 16.5% short float, borrow rate ~10.3% [7]
In other words: TNXP has moved from obscure micro‑cap territory into the “extremely volatile, heavily traded biotech” bucket. Platforms like CoinCodex classify recent volatility as “high” (8.94% over the last 30 days), with 15 green days out of 30 (50%) and a neutral 14‑day RSI around 49, suggesting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions at this moment. [8]
For traders, this is a stock that can deliver double‑digit daily moves in both directions. For longer‑term investors, TNXP is now tightly linked to how well Tonix executes the launch of its fibromyalgia drug Tonmya / TONMYA and advances its broader pipeline.
Latest Fundamental News Driving TNXP
1. Tonmya: First New Fibromyalgia Drug in 15+ Years, Now on the Market
The pivotal event for TNXP stock was FDA approval of Tonmya (TNX‑102 SL) on 15 August 2025 as a non‑opioid, bedtime treatment for fibromyalgia pain—the first new fibromyalgia therapy in more than 15 years. [9]
Key points from the approval and launch:
- The drug is a sublingual formulation of cyclobenzaprine designed for bedtime dosing, targeting non‑restorative sleep and pain in fibromyalgia. [10]
- The indication is supported by two Phase 3 trials (RELIEF and RESILIENT, ~1,000 patients) showing significant pain reduction vs. placebo at 14 weeks, and more patients achieving ≥30% pain improvement. [11]
- The U.S. fibromyalgia population is estimated around 10 million adults, largely women, making this a sizable chronic‑pain market. [12]
On 17 November 2025, Tonix announced that TONMYA is now commercially available by prescription across U.S. pharmacies, marking the transition from development-stage to fully commercial biotech. The company highlights Tonmya as a first‑in‑class, non‑opioid, once‑daily bedtime analgesic, and notes that it expects U.S. market exclusivity into the 2030s thanks to a patent estate extending to at least 2034, with potential method‑of‑use protection into 2044. [13]
Reuters, citing a Zacks Small‑Cap Research analyst, reported estimated peak U.S. Tonmya sales of about $800 million seven to eight years after launch, underscoring why investors are suddenly paying attention to a company with a sub‑$300m market cap. [14]
2. Q3 2025 Results: Cash Runway Through Early 2027
In its Q3 2025 earnings release on 10 November 2025, Tonix laid out a financial picture that, for a small commercial biotech, is relatively solid: [15]
- Cash and cash equivalents: $190.1M as of 30 September 2025
- Expected cash runway: into Q1 2027, including ~$34.7M in net proceeds from Q4 2025 equity offerings
- Q3 2025 net product revenue: $3.3M (vs. $2.8M a year earlier), mainly from migraine brands Zembrace SymTouch and Tosymra
- Q3 net loss: $32.0M, or $3.59 per share, reflecting a big ramp in selling and marketing expenses ($25.7M vs. $7.7M in 2024) as Tonmya launch infrastructure came online
The company has 90 Tonmya sales reps in the field, contracts in place with wholesalers and specialty pharmacies, and a newly appointed Head of Market Access to drive payer coverage and reimbursement strategy. [16]
Short version: Tonix has the cash to support a serious launch, but it is burning money quickly and will need meaningful Tonmya uptake to justify ongoing commercial spend.
3. IND Clearance for Major Depressive Disorder: The HORIZON Study
On 24 November 2025, Tonix announced that the FDA cleared an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for TNX‑102 SL 5.6 mg in major depressive disorder (MDD). [17]
Highlights of the planned Phase 2 HORIZON study:
- ~360 adults with MDD, randomized 1:1 to TNX‑102 SL or placebo
- 6‑week double‑blind treatment at ~30 U.S. sites
- Primary endpoint: change in MADRS (Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale) total score at Week 6
- Enrollment targeted to begin mid‑2026
Tonix points to prior fibromyalgia and PTSD studies where TNX‑102 SL showed improvements on depression scales like BDI‑II and MADRS as a rationale for moving into MDD. [18]
Stock reaction to the IND clearance was ironically negative: StockTitan’s event data shows TNXP down ~11% on the day of the announcement, illustrating how news that looks fundamentally positive can still trigger profit‑taking in a hyper‑volatile stock. [19]
4. Pipeline Beyond Fibromyalgia
Tonix is trying not to be “the Tonmya company only.” Recent updates include: [20]
- TNX‑1500 (anti‑CD40L mAb): Collaboration with Massachusetts General Hospital to run a Phase 2 kidney transplant study in 2026, assessing safety, rejection rates and graft outcomes in five adult recipients.
- TNX‑4800 (anti‑OspA mAb for Lyme disease): In‑licensed from UMass Chan; an adaptive Phase 2/3 seasonal prevention study is planned for 2027, targeting a space with no FDA‑approved prophylaxis today.
- TNX‑801 mpox/smallpox vaccine: Preclinical data presented at World Vaccine Congress–Europe 2025 support moving toward clinical development after durable immune responses and protection in animal models.
- TNX‑2900 (intranasal oxytocin) for Prader–Willi syndrome: Orphan and Rare Pediatric Disease designations; Phase 2 trial starts planned for 2H 2026.
- OASIS trial: TNX‑102 SL is already in development for acute stress reaction/acute stress disorder under a Department of Defense–funded investigator‑initiated trial at the University of North Carolina.
This breadth matters for TNXP stock: if even one or two of these programs succeed, Tonix becomes more than a single‑product story. If they stumble, the market may revert to valuing Tonix mainly as a one‑drug fibromyalgia franchise.
What the Algorithms Say: Short‑Term TNXP Stock Forecasts
Intellectia AI: Strong‑Sell Label, Volatile Upside/Downside
Quant platform Intellectia currently labels TNXP as a “Strong Sell” candidate, based on a composite of technical signals, moving averages, short‑selling data and pattern matching. [21]
Their latest numbers (as of 7 December 2025):
- 1‑day prediction: $19.22 (‑2.14% vs. $19.64)
- 1‑week prediction: $16.62 (‑14.97%)
- 1‑month prediction: $33.57 (+~71%)
- 2026 forecast: $45.49 (+~132%)
- 2030 forecast: $54.01 (+~175%) [22]
So in the near term the model is bearish, but it still projects substantial upside on a 1‑month+ horizon—it’s basically saying “big swings, high risk.”
On the technical side:
- TNXP currently has 1 buy signal vs. 6 sell signals across indicators, according to Intellectia’s dashboard.
- The short‑term trend is “consolidation” after a ~26% run‑up since early December.
- Moving averages look mixed: price is above short‑term SMAs, but SMA‑20 below SMA‑60, which they interpret as a bearish mid‑term trend. [23]
- Identified resistance levels are around $20.80 and $23.29, with support near $12.71 and $10.21; breaks above or below these zones would trigger fresh buy/sell signals in their framework. [24]
Intellectia also flags a short‑sale ratio of ~31.5% as of 5 December 2025, rising alongside the stock price—suggesting active short sellers are betting on a pullback after the recent run. [25]
Interestingly, their seasonality analysis says December has historically been the “best month” for TNXP, with a 60% chance of a positive return, though that’s based on a small and somewhat chaotic historical dataset. [26]
CoinCodex: Flat Near‑Term, Mildly Negative One‑Year View
Crypto‑and‑stocks platform CoinCodex offers a more muted picture. As of Dec 7, 2025 (06:04 GMT) it reports: [27]
- Current price: $19.64
- 5‑day prediction: $19.63
- 1‑month prediction: $19.62 (−0.11%, essentially flat)
- Short‑term outlook (next week): −0.05% to $19.63
- 1‑year prediction: $19.48 (−0.82%)
- 2030 prediction (their long‑term model): a steep decline vs today’s price
Some key sentiment and risk metrics from the same page:
- Sentiment: Neutral
- Fear & Greed Index: 39 (“Fear”)
- Volatility: 8.94% (high)
- Green days: 15 / 30 (50%)
- 50‑day SMA: $18.99 (price slightly above)
- 200‑day SMA: $26.47 (price below, a longer‑term bearish signal) [28]
CoinCodex’s takeaway: TNXP has already run hard, and their technical model expects sideways‑to‑slightly‑down performance over the next year, even while acknowledging that recent momentum has been spectacular.
Both Intellectia and CoinCodex emphasize that their forecasts are model‑driven and not investment advice, and the divergence between them is a reminder that quantitative predictions can be wildly different for the same volatile stock. [29]
Wall Street’s View: TNXP Stock Forecast and Price Targets
While algorithms spit out dozens of numbers, Wall Street coverage of TNXP is still relatively thin—but what exists is aggressively optimistic on valuation.
Analyst Price Targets
Two of the clearest snapshots come from MarketBeat and Fintel:
- MarketBeat (as of 7 December 2025):
- Consensus 12‑month price target:$70.00
- Implied upside: ~256% from $19.64
- Number of analysts: 3
- Ratings mix: 2 Buy, 1 Sell → consensus “Hold” [30]
- Fintel (record date 6 December 2025):
- Average one‑year price target:$69.02
- Range: $65.65 (low) to $73.50 (high) [31]
Those targets implicitly assume successful Tonmya launch, continuing pipeline progress, and no catastrophic dilution. But they’re also based on only a small handful of covering analysts, so the statistical reliability is low.
Sentiment and Short Interest
Fintel’s factor data paints a picture of a stock that is:
- Still unprofitable (EPS trailing twelve months around –9.76, negative EBIT/EV) [32]
- Very volatile (1‑year volatility ~97%, implied vol ~134%) [33]
- Heavily shorted but not at meme‑stock extremes (short float ~16.5%, days to cover ~3.0) [34]
Meanwhile, news aggregation and sentiment tools (MarketBeat and StockTitan) tag overall media tone as neutral‑to‑positive, with individual press releases producing big one‑day swings:
– +5–6% after TONMYA’s commercial availability announcement;
– +4% after Q3 earnings;
– −11% on the MDD IND clearance, likely profit‑taking against a “sell the news” backdrop. [35]
Key Risks and Variables for TNXP Stock
For anyone watching or writing about TNXP stock, the major risk factors are fairly clear:
- Launch Execution for Tonmya
- Tonmya is competing with established drugs like Lyrica, Cymbalta and Savella in a skeptical chronic‑pain prescriber community. [36]
- Success will depend on payer coverage, patient adherence, safety perception and whether real‑world outcomes match Phase 3 data.
- Single‑Product Concentration (for now)
- Tonmya currently dominates the Tonix story. If uptake disappoints, the company’s heavy spend on sales and marketing becomes a drag instead of an investment. Q3 SG&A already jumped more than 3× year‑over‑year. [37]
- Pipeline Execution Risk
- The HORIZON MDD study, the TNX‑1500 transplant trial, the Lyme mAb TNX‑4800, the TNX‑801 mpox/smallpox vaccine, and TNX‑2900 for Prader–Willi all carry standard clinical‑development risk. Any high‑profile trial failure could compress TNXP’s pipeline premium. [38]
- Financing and Dilution
- Even with a runway into early 2027, Tonix is still loss‑making (Q3 net loss $32M; YTD 2025 net loss over $77M), and future expansion or setbacks could force additional equity offerings. [39]
- Extreme Volatility and Short Interest
- A 10,000%+ 12‑month move and 90%+ annualized volatility make TNXP vulnerable to sharp squeezes and brutal drawdowns. Elevated short float and borrow costs add fuel to both rallies and crashes. [40]
For Google‑News‑style clarity: TNXP is not a stable “value stock”; it is a high‑beta biotech name whose price will likely continue to swing dramatically around news, sentiment and technical levels.
What to Watch Next for TNXP (From 7 December 2025 Onward)
Looking forward from 7 December 2025, the main catalysts for TNXP stock include:
- Early Tonmya launch metrics
- Any hints (earnings commentary, conference talks, prescription‑trend disclosures) about initial demand, payer coverage and physician adoption will be crucial for 2026 models. [41]
- Updates on the HORIZON MDD study
- Site activation, enrollment timing, and trial design tweaks could influence how investors model the MDD opportunity on top of fibromyalgia. [42]
- Progress for TNX‑1500 and TNX‑4800
- Movement into Phase 2 (transplant) and Phase 2/3 (Lyme) would further validate Tonix’s immunology and infectious‑disease franchises. [43]
- Q4 2025 and full‑year 2025 earnings
- Investors will be watching how quickly Tonmya revenue ramps versus the burn rate, and whether guidance confirms the runway beyond early 2027.
Bottom Line on TNXP Stock as of 7 December 2025
As of 7 December 2025, TNXP stock sits at the intersection of a real, newly launched product and extremely speculative expectations:
- Fundamentals: Tonix has an FDA‑approved, first‑in‑15‑years drug for fibromyalgia, meaningful cash, and a diversified pipeline. [44]
- Technical and quant views: Algorithms disagree—Intellectia sees a strong‑sell setup with near‑term downside risk, while CoinCodex expects mostly flat trading with high volatility. [45]
- Wall Street: A tiny group of analysts assigns a Hold consensus, but with eye‑popping average 12‑month targets around $70, implying more than a 2.5× move from current levels if everything goes right. [46]
For coverage in Google News or Discover, the key narrative is simple:
TNXP is now a launch‑stage biotech whose valuation will increasingly hinge on real‑world Tonmya uptake and the credibility of its ambitious CNS and immunology pipeline—against a backdrop of extreme volatility, active short sellers, and widely diverging forecasts.
References
1. ir.tonixpharma.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. fintel.io, 5. coincodex.com, 6. fintel.io, 7. fintel.io, 8. coincodex.com, 9. ir.tonixpharma.com, 10. ir.tonixpharma.com, 11. ir.tonixpharma.com, 12. ir.tonixpharma.com, 13. ir.tonixpharma.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. ir.tonixpharma.com, 16. ir.tonixpharma.com, 17. ir.tonixpharma.com, 18. www.stocktitan.net, 19. www.stocktitan.net, 20. ir.tonixpharma.com, 21. intellectia.ai, 22. intellectia.ai, 23. intellectia.ai, 24. intellectia.ai, 25. intellectia.ai, 26. intellectia.ai, 27. coincodex.com, 28. coincodex.com, 29. intellectia.ai, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. fintel.io, 32. fintel.io, 33. fintel.io, 34. fintel.io, 35. www.stocktitan.net, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. ir.tonixpharma.com, 38. ir.tonixpharma.com, 39. ir.tonixpharma.com, 40. fintel.io, 41. ir.tonixpharma.com, 42. ir.tonixpharma.com, 43. ir.tonixpharma.com, 44. ir.tonixpharma.com, 45. intellectia.ai, 46. www.marketbeat.com
