Tokyo Stocks Surge on Fed Rate Cut Hopes as Nikkei 225 Jumps to 49,559 and Topix Nears Record High

Tokyo stock market today: sharp rebound on global rate-cut optimism

Tokyo’s stock market staged a powerful rally on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, as investors piled back into Japanese equities on growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 49,559.07, up 899.55 points from Tuesday’s finish – a gain of 1.85% – while the Topix index climbed 64.61 points, or 1.96%, to 3,355.50. ^[1]

That puts the Nikkei within striking distance of the psychologically important 50,000 line and leaves the broader Topix hovering close to its record territory after a series of all‑time highs earlier this autumn. ^[2]

Wednesday’s surge came after a subdued session on Tuesday, when the Nikkei ended almost flat at 48,659.52 and the Topix edged down to 3,290.89 as trading resumed following a holiday. ^[3]

Headline numbers: Nikkei, Topix and key indices

Official data from Nikkei’s index provider show the Nikkei 225 up 1.85% on the day, to 49,559.07, while the JPX–Nikkei 400, a benchmark of large, liquid and profitable Japanese companies, rose 1.94% to 30,231.14. Volatility retreated, with the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index falling to 33.26, down more than 10% from Tuesday. ^[4]

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime Market, the move was broad‑based:

Topix: 3,355.50 (+1.96%) ^[5]
Advancers vs decliners: roughly 2,942 stocks rose, 685 fell, and 206 were unchanged, underscoring strong breadth behind the rally. ^[6]

Intraday, the Nikkei briefly spiked more than 1,000 points before settling back, helped by heavy buying in index heavyweights such as SoftBank Group. ^[7]

Fed rate cut bets power risk‑on mood in Tokyo

The immediate catalyst for the jump in Tokyo stocks was a renewed wave of global risk‑on appetite. U.S. equities extended their rebound overnight after data showed U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence were weaker than expected, reinforcing the view that the Fed is likely to cut rates at its December 10 meeting. ^[8]

According to futures pricing referenced by Reuters, markets now assign roughly an 80% probability to a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut in December, up from about even odds just a week earlier. ^[9]

That shift in expectations has:

Pushed global bond yields lower, with the U.S. 10‑year Treasury hovering near the 4% mark. ^[10]
Boosted major U.S. indices for a third straight day, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq regain ground after this month’s tech sell‑off. ^[11]
Lifted equity markets across Asia, where an MSCI gauge of Asia‑Pacific shares ex‑Japan gained around 1.1%. ^[12]

For Japanese stocks, a looser Fed is a double positive: it supports global growth and often eases upward pressure on the dollar, reducing the risk of further yen weakness that has worried policymakers.

Tech and growth stocks lead: SoftBank and chip names bounce

As in other major markets, technology and growth shares were at the heart of Tokyo’s rally.

Data from Investing.com and local media point to several standout gainers on the Nikkei 225: ^[13]

Toppan Printing jumped about 6.3%, one of the strongest moves in the index.
SoftBank Group rallied between 5.6–5.7%, rebounding after losing nearly 20% over the previous two sessions amid a global shakeout in high‑valuation tech and AI names. ^[14]
SUMCO, a silicon wafer producer, gained roughly 5.5%, riding the rebound in semiconductor‑related stocks. ^[15]
Advantest, a key chip‑testing equipment maker, added about 2%, while Fast Retailing, operator of the Uniqlo chain and a heavy Nikkei component, climbed around 1.8%. ^[16]

The Nikkei Semiconductor Stock Index also moved higher, gaining nearly 2%, highlighting renewed appetite for chip‑related plays after weeks of volatility around AI‑linked valuations. ^[17]

Utilities and energy in focus: nuclear restart hopes lift power stocks

Beyond tech, utilities and energy‑linked names were among the biggest winners:

Hokkaido Electric Power soared about 9.3% after local media reported that Hokkaido Governor Naomichi Suzuki intends to allow the restart of a reactor at the Tomari nuclear plant, pending regulatory procedures. ^[18]
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO) climbed roughly 4.6%, extending gains after earlier news that another regional governor had approved a partial restart at the Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power station. ^[19]

Nuclear restart headlines matter for the Tokyo market: they promise lower imported fuel costs and more stable power supply, which can support corporate margins and boost sentiment in domestic, energy‑intensive sectors.

Outliers: Kioxia sinks while some defensives lag

Not every stock joined the rally. One of the day’s most notable losers was memory‑chip maker Kioxia:

Kioxia shares tumbled around 15% after reports that private‑equity owner Bain Capital plans to sell roughly $2–2.3 billion worth of its stake. ^[20]

Within the Nikkei 225, a handful of defensive and industrial names lagged or slipped into the red even as the benchmark surged: ^[21]

Kikkoman (food and condiments) fell about 1.7%.
Nippon Steel eased roughly 1.3%.
Factory‑automation specialist Keyence edged down about 0.9%.

These moves suggest that while risk appetite is back, investors are rotating toward cyclicals and growth – tech, real estate, and banks – and taking some profits in more defensive names.

Market breadth and sector performance: rally across the board

The rally was remarkably broad:

Advancers outnumbered decliners on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by more than four‑to‑one (2,942 vs 685). ^[22]
Real estate, banking and textile sectors were among the strongest groups, according to Investing.com’s sector breakdown. ^[23]
The Topix, which is more representative of the overall market than the price‑weighted Nikkei, climbed almost 2%, showing that gains were not confined to a few mega‑caps. ^[24]

Meanwhile, the Nikkei Volatility Index dropped to 33.26, down nearly 4 points or about 11% on the day, signaling that investors are demanding less protection against abrupt swings in Japanese equities. ^[25]

Yen, Bank of Japan and policy backdrop

Even as global rate‑cut hopes buoyed equities, Japan’s domestic policy story remains front and center.

The yen has been trading in the mid‑150s per U.S. dollar, a level that helps exporters but squeezes import‑dependent households. ^[26]
Late last week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama escalated verbal warnings, stressing that currency intervention is on the table if yen moves become excessively volatile. Analysts see around ¥160 per dollar as a likely line in the sand. ^[27]
At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled that the BOJ will debate the “feasibility and timing” of a rate hike in upcoming meetings, keeping alive the possibility of higher Japanese rates as soon as December or January. ^[28]

This policy backdrop creates a delicate balance for the stock market:

A weaker yen tends to be positive for exporters and manufacturers.
But political and social pressure to ease the cost‑of‑living squeeze may push authorities toward tighter monetary policy or intervention, which could cap further currency‑driven gains.

BOJ ETF holdings underline structural support for equities

Separate reporting on Wednesday highlighted just how tied together the Bank of Japan and the equity market have become.

Bloomberg data suggest the market value of the BOJ’s exchange‑traded fund (ETF) portfolio rose around 18.5% year‑on‑year to about ¥83.2 trillion (roughly $530 billion) in the first half of fiscal 2025, reflecting the powerful rally in Japanese stocks over the past year. ^[29]

Those sizable paper gains give the BOJ more room to gradually reduce its ETF holdings without crystallizing large losses, but they also underscore how closely market dynamics are intertwined with policy decisions. Any concrete roadmap for unwinding these positions will be watched closely by global investors.

From recent turbulence to renewed momentum

Wednesday’s surge also needs to be seen in the context of recent volatility:

Earlier this month, the Nikkei suffered its biggest one‑day fall in more than half a year, dropping about 4% on November 5 as tech stocks sold off globally. ^[30]
On November 18, the index slid about 3% in another tech‑led decline, underscoring how fragile sentiment had become after a scorching AI‑driven rally. ^[31]
At the same time, Japan’s main stock index hit an all‑time high above 52,600 points earlier in November, according to Trading Economics data, meaning that even after today’s jump the Nikkei remains several percentage points below its peak. ^[32]

Against that backdrop, today’s gains look like a strong, but not euphoric, reset: markets are reclaiming lost ground as rate fears ease, rather than blasting into entirely new territory.

What investors are watching next

While this article does not constitute investment advice, several themes are likely to guide how traders interpret Wednesday’s move in the coming days:

December Fed meeting (December 10)
- Confirmation (or disappointment) of a Fed rate cut could reprice global risk assets again. A cut broadly supports Japanese equities; a surprise hold might pressure risk assets worldwide. ^[33]
BOJ policy meetings in December and January
- Any hint that the BOJ is moving faster toward rate hikes or adjusting its balance‑sheet plans, including ETF holdings, could shift sector leadership within Japanese stocks.
Yen levels and potential intervention
- Renewed tests of the ¥160 per dollar area would heighten the odds of direct FX intervention, which could jolt exporters and financials. ^[34]
Earnings and stock‑specific news
- Today’s outsized moves in SoftBank, Kioxia, Hokkaido Electric, TEPCO, Toppan Printing and SUMCOshow how quickly stock‑specific headlines can amplify broader macro trends in Tokyo.

For now, though, the message from Wednesday’s session is clear: global rate‑cut hopes have put the wind back in the sails of the Tokyo stock market, with gains spread widely across sectors and capitalization tiers.

NIKKEI NIK225 ( M5 ) INDEX Educational Chart Tokyo Stock Exchange JPN225