TORONTO — As of early December 2025, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX: TD, NYSE: TD) is trading near record highs, with investors positioning for Q4 2025 earnings on December 4 and still weighing the fallout from its US$3 billion anti–money laundering (AML) settlement in the United States. [1]
Here’s a detailed, news‑driven look at Toronto-Dominion Bank stock using the latest information from 1 December 2025 onward, including price action, analyst forecasts, dividend trends and regulatory risk.
TD Stock Price in December 2025: Near Highs After a Huge 2025 Rally
On the Toronto Stock Exchange, a December 1 analysis from Meyka shows TD.TO closing at C$117.15, very close to its recent high of C$117.95. The stock is up 48.65% year‑to‑date, with one‑year performance also around +49%, and trading volume of 3.69 million shares versus an average of 6.23 million, suggesting investors are in “wait and see” mode ahead of earnings. [2]
On the New York Stock Exchange, MarketBeat’s live snapshot puts TD around US$83.57, with a 52‑week range of US$51.25–84.23, a P/E ratio of 9.76, and a dividend yield near 3.6%. [3]
Zooming out to the sector level, a December 1 Reuters piece notes that Canada’s “Big Six” banks — including TD — have gained about 32% on average in 2025, outpacing the S&P/TSX Composite’s roughly 27% rise. They now trade around 12.9× forward earnings, a 23% premium to their 10‑year average, leaving valuations described as “fully valued.” [4]
Takeaway: TD stock enters December 2025 near its 12‑month highs after a phenomenal run, at a time when sector valuations are already rich by historical standards.
Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: What the Market Expects from TD
Earnings date and timing
Multiple sources — including Nasdaq and MarketBeat — confirm that TD will report Q4 2025 results on Thursday, December 4, 2025, before the market opens, with the conference call scheduled for 6:30 a.m. ET. [5]
Wall Street forecasts
A late‑November MarketBeat note, “Brokers Issue Forecasts for TD FY2025 Earnings,” highlights that: [6]
- Raymond James (Nov. 24)
- FY 2025 EPS estimate: about US$5.80
- FY 2026 EPS estimate: about US$6.25, with detailed quarterly projections.
- Rating: “Hold.”
- Consensus FY 2025 EPS: roughly US$5.48.
A separate MarketBeat page summarizing analyst forecasts for NYSE:TD shows: [7]
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy.”
- 9 analysts tracked, with 5 “Buy” and 4 “Hold” ratings.
- Average 12‑month price target:US$93, implying about 11% upside from ~US$83.6.
For the Canadian‑listed shares, TipRanks reports that 11 analysts have a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target of about C$117.94 — essentially in line with where TD is already trading (C$117.65 in recent data), suggesting limited upside from current levels. [8]
A December 1 Meyka article also flags the December 4 earnings date as a critical near‑term catalyst, noting that investors are watching closely for any surprises that could either extend or puncture the rally. [9]
Sector backdrop from December 1 Reuters
That same Reuters Q4 preview for Canadian banks stresses: [10]
- Investment banking and wealth management are expected to drive stronger Q4 results.
- Net income across the Big Six is forecast to grow between 3.5% and 41.9% year‑over‑year.
- Loan‑loss provisions are expected to rise at most banks, reflecting a still‑cautious credit outlook.
- Analysts at RBC warn that banks’ exposures to private credit and non‑bank financial institutions (NBFIs) — especially through U.S. operations — will be under the microscope.
For TD, that means Thursday’s report is likely to be a key test of whether the stock’s strong 2025 run and premium sector valuations can be justified by forward‑looking guidance.
Technical View: Strong Uptrend, Signs of Being Stretched
The December 1 Meyka report paints a bullish but extended technical picture for TD.TO: [11]
- RSI: 64.98 — neutral to slightly overbought.
- MACD: 1.08 vs. signal 0.96 — bullish momentum.
- ATR: 1.46 — moderate volatility, not extreme.
- Bollinger Bands: price near the upper band around C$117.18, suggesting resistance close by.
Short‑term technical forecasters at other services (e.g., StockInvest, TipRanks) similarly describe TD as trading above its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, with momentum indicators near overbought territory — a classic profile of a stock in a strong uptrend but with limited immediate room for error. [12]
In simple terms: TD’s chart supports the bulls, but any disappointment on December 4 could prompt sharp profit‑taking after a nearly 50% advance.
Fundamentals and Valuation: Attractive vs Peers, Full vs History
Snapshot of TD’s fundamentals
Meyka’s December 1 breakdown of TD.TO highlights: [13]
- Market cap:C$204.6 billion
- P/E ratio:10.07×
- EPS:C$11.68
- Revenue per share:C$68.53
- Dividend yield:3.57%
- Payout ratio:36.07%
On the U.S. side, MarketBeat lists for NYSE:TD: [14]
- Market cap: ~US$141 billion
- P/E:9.76×
- Dividend yield:3.60%
So TD screens as a highly profitable, large‑cap bank with mid‑single‑digit yield and a conservative payout.
Is TD stock cheap or expensive?
This is where opinions diverge:
- Canadian sector valuation: Reuters notes the Big Six banks trade at 12.9× forward earnings, a 23% premium to their 10‑year average — “fully valued” in the words of Jefferies analyst John Aiken. [15]
- Intrinsic value models:
- Simply Wall St’s model describes TD as “trading at 27.3% below our estimate of its fair value” and “significantly below fair value by more than 20%,” while warning that earnings are forecast to decline by about 11.4% per year over the next three years as profits normalize. [16]
- A November 13 analysis on Yahoo Finance using an “Excess Returns” framework suggests TD is undervalued by around 27.4% despite a 54% price rally, again indicating room for upside in some valuation models. [17]
- Webull, summarizing a Simply Wall St DCF model, cites a fair value estimate of about C$161.98 versus market prices near C$117, framing TD as “significantly undervalued” by that approach. [18]
Result: Relative to many global banks, TD looks inexpensive on basic multiples, but relative to its own history — and given forecasts for flattish or slightly lower earnings — some analysts see the stock as fairly valued or only modestly undervalued after its big 2025 run.
Analyst Ratings: Firmly in “Hold‑to‑Buy” Territory
From early‑December sources, the analyst picture is broadly constructive but not euphoric:
- MarketBeat (NYSE:TD)
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy.”
- Analysts:9 total — 5 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell.
- Average 12‑month price target:US$93, implying ~11% upside from ~US$83.6. [19]
- MarketBeat (November 28 article on broker forecasts)
- Confirms the “Moderate Buy” consensus and US$93 target. [20]
- Jefferies (Nov. 25)
- Downgraded TD from “Buy” to “Hold” on the Toronto listing,
- But raised its price target from C$124 to C$125, implying about 7% upside from late‑November levels around C$116. [21]
- Desjardins & others
- Desjardins upgraded TD from “Hold” to “Buy” in August and later boosted its target from C$107 to C$110, reiterating a bullish stance. [22]
- Weiss Ratings has reaffirmed a “buy (B)” rating, while Zacks and Wall Street Zen variously shifted TD from “strong buy” to “hold” or from “sell” to “hold”, reflecting a tilt toward cautious optimism. [23]
- RBC Capital (Oct. 3)
- Upgraded TD from “Sector Perform” to “Outperform” and raised its U.S. price target to US$120, according to Fintel and Benzinga summaries. [24]
- Retail‑facing platforms
Overall: Most professional and retail‑oriented analyst sources classify TD stock as a “Moderate Buy” with modest upside, positioning it squarely between a classic value play and a fully‑priced defensive.
Dividend Profile: 3.5% Yield and High‑Single‑Digit Growth
For many investors, Toronto-Dominion Bank stock = dividend stock.
Fresh December 2 data from Digrin and other trackers show: [27]
- Most recent quarterly dividend:C$1.05 per share on TD.TO.
- Forward dividend yield: approximately 3.57% on the TSX, similar 3.6–3.7% numbers appear in other databases.
- Three‑year dividend growth rate:8.92% per year.
- Forward yield on some platforms: around 3.6–3.7%, depending on data source and exact price snapshot.
Simply Wall St lists TD as “pays a reliable dividend of 3.57%”, reinforcing the view that the payout is both attractive and sustainable, supported by that ~36% payout ratio and robust earnings. [28]
TD’s official and third‑party dividend calendars show a steady pattern of quarterly C$1.05 payments through 2025, with the next dividend cycle already scheduled into early 2026, subject as always to regulatory capital requirements. [29]
For income‑focused investors, TD currently offers a mix of:
- Mid‑single‑digit yield, and
- High‑single‑digit historical dividend growth,
backed by a large, profitable, well‑capitalized franchise.
AML Settlement and Regulatory Overhang: The Big Shadow
What happened
The most significant negative overhang on TD is its U.S. anti–money laundering scandal.
According to the U.S. Department of Justice: [30]
- Between 2014 and 2023, TD Bank N.A. failed to maintain an adequate AML program.
- From Jan. 1, 2018 to April 12, 2024, about 92% of total transaction volume went unmonitored in its automated systems — about US$18.3 trillion in transactions.
- These failures enabled three money‑laundering networks to move more than US$670 million through TD accounts between 2019 and 2023.
- Some TD employees took bribes from criminal organizations to help move funds.
- TD agreed to pay US$1.8 billion in criminal penalties and retain an independent monitor as part of its plea, the largest penalty ever imposed under the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act and the first guilty plea of a national bank for conspiring to launder money.
A November 2024 legal analysis from Bradley and a 2025 Pirani Risk article frame the roughly US$3 billion combined criminal and civil penalty and the monitor requirement as a watershed moment for AML enforcement, emphasizing how under‑resourced compliance and “paper programs” can lead to catastrophic outcomes. [31]
What TD is doing now
A February 27, 2025 Reuters exclusive reports that TD has appointed Guidepost Solutions as its independent compliance monitor for U.S. operations. [32]
Key details from that report:
- TD has set aside US$500 million for AML remediation and compliance upgrades.
- Guidepost will oversee a multi‑year program to fix AML controls and report progress directly to regulators.
- CFO Kelvin Tran called AML remediation TD’s “top priority,” while noting that regulators accused the bank of facilitating more than US$650 million in transactions tied to fentanyl and other drugs, with some staff taking bribes.
Further, multiple law‑firm press releases and investor alerts (summarized on sites like Simply Wall St) show ongoing class‑action lawsuits alleging that TD misled investors about AML risk prior to the settlement. [33]
Regulatory and earnings implications
The AML case brings several risks:
- Multi‑year higher compliance costs, eating into margins.
- Reputational damage that could impact business development, especially in the U.S.
- Regulatory caps and constraints on U.S. growth until TD satisfies remedial requirements. [34]
For valuation, investors must decide how much of this structural headwind is already reflected in the stock’s P/E and dividend yield.
Strategy and Growth Drivers: U.S. Expansion and AI‑Powered Digitization
Despite the regulatory cloud, TD continues to execute on a North American growth and technology strategy.
U.S. operations and leadership refresh
- In October 2025, TD Bank (U.S.) announced the appointment of Brian Callanan as U.S. General Counsel and Andre Ramos as U.S. Chief Financial Officer, both effective December 1, 2025. [35]
- Reuters framed these hires as part of TD’s effort to bolster its U.S. bench following the AML case and related regulatory caps. [36]
These moves, along with the prior hiring of a new U.S. Chief Compliance Officer, signal a top‑down reset of TD’s U.S. risk and control culture. [37]
AI and digital initiatives
Throughout 2025, TD has leaned hard into AI‑driven innovation:
- TD AI Prism – Predictive Foundation Model
- Launched in June 2025 as a “groundbreaking predictive foundation model” to better anticipate customer needs and personalize experiences across businesses. [38]
- Wealth Virtual Assistant (GenAI KMS)
- Announced October 20, 2025: a GenAI Knowledge Management System built by TD’s Layer 6 team to help colleagues quickly access information and support wealth clients. [39]
- Coverage from fintech and wealth‑management media describes it as one of several AI assistants TD plans to roll out across the bank. [40]
- TD Securities AI Assistant
- A July 2025 announcement introduced a generative AI assistant for TD Securities, aimed at improving productivity for institutional sales, trading and research teams. [41]
These initiatives are meant to boost non‑interest income, improve efficiency and help TD compete with both big banks and fintechs, supporting the long‑term bull case even as near‑term compliance costs rise.
Key Risks TD Investors Should Watch
As of December 2025, investors weighing Toronto-Dominion Bank stock should keep several major risk areas in mind.
- Regulatory & Legal Risk
- The AML settlement, independent monitor, and ongoing lawsuits create multi‑year uncertainty around costs, capital allocation and U.S. growth. [42]
- Valuation Risk
- Macro & Credit Risk
- Reuters highlights concerns over Canadian consumer health, mortgage renewals, and banks’ exposure to private credit and NBFIs, particularly via U.S. operations — areas where investors will scrutinize TD’s Q4 disclosures. [45]
- Earnings Trajectory
- Simply Wall St expects TD’s earnings to decline on average by ~11.4% per year over the next three years, reflecting normalization and higher risk‑control spending. [46]
- Sell‑side forecasts, by contrast, project modest EPS growth from 2025 to 2026, underlining the uncertainty in how earnings will actually evolve. [47]
- Execution Risk on AI and U.S. Strategy
- While TD’s AI and digital programs are ambitious, they require ongoing investment and careful governance, especially given the bank’s recent compliance failures. [48]
Is TD Stock a Buy in December 2025? A Balanced View
The bull case for Toronto-Dominion Bank stock
Supporters of TD stock point to:
- Scale and diversification: A top‑tier franchise in Canadian retail banking with significant U.S. exposure and strong wealth/insurance and wholesale businesses. [49]
- Dividend strength: ~3.5–3.7% yield plus high‑single‑digit dividend growth, backed by solid profitability and a moderate payout ratio. [50]
- Attractive relative valuation: P/E ratios around 10× (Canada) and under 10× (U.S.), lower than many global peers, with multiple intrinsic value models indicating sizeable undervaluation. [51]
- Strategic upside: AI‑driven efficiency gains, growth in fee‑based revenues, and a refreshed U.S. leadership team that could unlock more profitable, better‑controlled growth over time. [52]
The bear case
Skeptics focus on:
- The AML overhang: The largest BSA penalty ever, plus an independent monitor and multiple lawsuits, create headline risk and cost pressure for years, and may limit U.S. growth. [53]
- Valuations vs history: Even if TD looks cheap vs U.S. peers, Canadian banks as a group trade above their historical averages, leaving them vulnerable to macro shocks or earnings misses. [54]
- Earnings uncertainty: Diverging forecasts (declines in some fundamental models vs modest growth in sell‑side estimates) mean future profitability is far from guaranteed. [55]
- Macro and housing risk: Tightening consumer conditions, mortgage renewals and exposures to private credit or NBFIs could pressure loan quality and profitability if the North American economy slows. [56]
Putting it together
As of December 2025, Toronto-Dominion Bank stock looks like:
- A high‑quality, income‑oriented bank with:
- A long track record of dividend growth,
- Solid core profitability, and
- Significant upside potential if its AI, U.S. and fee‑based strategies deliver.
- But also a bank trading near its highs, with:
- A major regulatory and legal cloud still hanging overhead,
- Elevated sector valuations, and
- An important earnings report just days away that could quickly shift sentiment.
For long‑term, dividend‑focused investors comfortable with regulatory risk, TD can still make sense as a core holding in a diversified portfolio. For more valuation‑sensitive or risk‑averse investors, it may be prudent to:
- Wait for the December 4 Q4 2025 results,
- Watch for updates on AML remediation and regulatory caps, and
- See whether any post‑earnings volatility offers a better entry point.
How to Monitor TD from Here
Key upcoming catalysts and checkpoints:
- December 4, 2025 – Q4 2025 earnings:
- Watch EPS, net interest margin, loan‑loss provisions, and commentary on U.S. regulatory progress and AI/digital investments. [57]
- Dividend declarations:
- Confirm continuation of the C$1.05 quarterly dividend and any future increases. [58]
- Regulatory updates:
- Look for new disclosures from TD or U.S. regulators on the AML monitor’s findings and the status of growth caps in the U.S. [59]
This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Markets move quickly, and all figures and estimates are as of early December 2025. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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