NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 08:44 ET — Market closed
- Canadian stocks finished the last session of 2025 in the red, led by mining shares.
- The Toronto market still capped its strongest year since 2009.
- Focus now turns to early-January data and the Bank of Canada’s late-month decision.
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the final trading day of 2025 down 0.4% at 31,712.76, pressured by mining shares as metal prices eased. “If we do have a shift in the commodity cycle,” it could change the market’s tone, said Shiraz Ahmed, CEO of Sartorial Wealth. Reuters
The move matters because Canada’s equity benchmark is built around resources and banks. After a standout 2025, the next leg hinges on whether metals can keep doing the heavy lifting and whether financials can hold up as investors reassess the economic outlook.
Markets are shut on Thursday for New Year’s Day, giving traders a pause after a holiday-thinned stretch of trading. The Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange are both scheduled to reopen on Friday.
The TSX is often called “commodity-heavy” for a reason: materials and energy companies can swing the index when gold, silver and oil move. That link cuts both ways — it helped power 2025’s gains, and it can amplify pullbacks when metals cool.
South of the border, Wall Street also ended 2025 lower on Wednesday, even as it logged strong annual gains. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% on the day but finished 2025 up 16.39%, while the Nasdaq gained 20.36% and the Dow rose 12.97%.
The TSX’s year-end level leaves investors watching whether the index can reclaim the 32,000 area after its late-December fade. The benchmark’s record close last week was 32,058.73, a level traders will treat as a near-term reference point.
Before the next session, price disclosure will be thinner than usual and positioning can swing on relatively small flows. For Toronto stocks, the first watchpoints are the usual ones: metals prices, the Canadian dollar and any shift in bond yields that changes how investors value banks and dividend payers.
On the macro calendar, U.S. construction spending is due Friday, followed by the ISM manufacturing survey on Monday — releases that can move rate expectations and, by extension, cyclicals tied to global growth.
Canada’s pipeline is heavier next week. Statistics Canada is set to publish international trade figures on Jan. 8 and the Labour Force Survey for December on Jan. 9, a key read on the jobs market that can reshape bets on the domestic economy.
The bigger policy marker is later in the month. The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest-rate decision is Jan. 28, alongside its Monetary Policy Report — a meeting that can reset expectations for borrowing costs and, in turn, valuation support for Canadian equities.
