New York, Jan 30, 2026, 13:54 (EST) — Regular session
- Shares fell roughly 2% on Friday, slipping after a jump sparked by earnings the day before
- The company reported a record backlog of $7.8 billion and outlined EPS and revenue growth targets for 2026
- Attention now turns to order conversions expected in early 2026 and the next earnings report due in May
Shares of Trane Technologies dropped almost 2% on Friday, wiping out some of the gains from Thursday’s earnings boost. By 1:54 p.m. EST, the stock had slipped $8.47 to $417.60.
The move matters because Trane’s order book is being closely watched as a barometer for commercial building spending, even as rate-sensitive areas of the market show signs of faltering. A record backlog signals future revenue but also heightens pressure on the company to deliver.
Investors are watching Trane alongside peers like Carrier Global and Johnson Controls International to gauge how long the commercial HVAC boom might last. Residential replacements, on the other hand, usually move with shifts in consumer confidence and borrowing costs.
The company reported fourth-quarter bookings climbed 24% to $5.76 billion, with “organic” bookings — excluding currency impacts and acquisitions — up 22%. Net revenue increased 6% to $5.145 billion, while adjusted EPS rose 10% to $2.86. It guided 2026 adjusted EPS between $14.65 and $14.85, forecasting reported revenue growth around 8.5% to 9.5%. CEO Dave Regnery highlighted a “record enterprise backlog of $7.8 billion” at the end of 2025, saying it offers “strong visibility” into future growth. 1
On the earnings call, finance chief Christopher Kuehn projected “Q1 adjusted EPS of approximately $2.50” and noted organic revenue growth should be roughly flat early in the year, hampered by tough comparisons in residential and a weak transport market. Management also confirmed it expects the Stellar Energy deal—its largest acquisition announced last year—to close in the first quarter, which will add data-center cooling exposure. 2
A U.S. securities filing revealed the company submitted its earnings release via a Form 8-K on Jan. 29. 3
Trane shares climbed 7.6% in Thursday morning trade following the earnings report, MarketWatch noted, paving the way for a pullback on Friday. 4
The broader market slipped, pulling stocks down after Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell’s replacement at the Federal Reserve. This move reignited speculation on interest rates. 5
Trane manufactures heating and cooling systems for both commercial buildings and homes, along with transport refrigeration products under its Thermo King brand. Recently, commercial HVAC and services have shown solid gains, whereas management has flagged residential and transport refrigeration as more challenging sectors.
A backlog doesn’t guarantee on-time delivery. Should projects face delays, budgets shrink, or residential demand linger below expectations, the company’s 2026 goals could quickly seem overly optimistic.
Traders are focused on whether commercial orders continue turning into revenue throughout the first half, and if margins can stay steady as bigger, custom “applied” projects — those large, tailored systems for big buildings — move through the pipeline.
Investors are eyeing the first-quarter report set for May 6 as the next key test, with a focus on fresh details about residential demand, transport refrigeration, and how quickly large commercial projects are moving. 6
