Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Stock News: Share Price Rebound, “TWE Ascent” Reset, and What Analysts Forecast Heading Into 2026

December 25, 2025 — Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE), the global winemaker behind Penfolds, has ended 2025 with investors juggling two competing narratives: a near-term earnings slump driven by weaker demand and channel disruption, and a sweeping turnaround program that management says is designed to rebuild profitability and sharpen execution.

As of Dec. 25, 2025, Investing.com shows TWE trading at A$5.390 (previous close A$5.010), with a stated 52‑week range of A$4.570 to A$11.590. ^[1]

That price action is the surface-level story. Underneath it is a deep reset across inventory, capital allocation, and cost structure—with analysts now re-cutting forecasts and price targets after the company’s mid‑December investor update.

Why Treasury Wine Estates stock is in focus in late December 2025

The core issue is simple (and painful): wine category dynamics have weakened, most notably in the U.S. and China, two markets that matter disproportionately for Treasury’s earnings engine. In its ASX investor update dated Dec. 17, 2025, Treasury said near-term improvement looks unlikely, prompting a deliberate pullback in shipments, tighter channel management, and a broader reset to protect brand equity—particularly for Penfolds. ^[2]

This came on top of earlier shocks in 2025:

October 2025: Treasury withdrew its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook and paused a buyback, pointing to weaker-than-expected Penfolds sales in China and distribution disruption in California. ^[3]
December 2025 (early): the company flagged a major impairment tied to its U.S. business as long‑term growth assumptions were marked down in a softer American wine market. ^[4]

By mid‑December, management opted to stop trying to “ride it out” and instead re-balance the system—inventory first, then costs, then capital structure.

The headline numbers: Treasury’s 1H26 outlook and what it implies

Treasury’s Dec. 17 ASX announcement set the new tone with clear (and lower) expectations:

1H26 EBITS expected at A$225m–A$235m
2H26 EBITS expected to be higher than 1H26 (with 1H impacted by the California distribution transition)
Guidance excludes any potential benefit from an RNDC settlement ^[5]

Several market reports emphasized how far this was below prior expectations; Capital Brief cited RBC calling it a “significant miss” versus consensus. ^[6]

What’s driving the downgrade in management expectations?

Treasury’s update is unusually explicit about the mechanics:

Customer inventories in both China and the U.S. were assessed as above optimal.
Parallel imports (grey-market flows) were disrupting Penfolds pricing in China, a direct threat to luxury brand positioning. ^[7]

The response is essentially: reduce shipments now, accept the earnings drag, and aim to emerge with healthier channels and stronger pricing power later.

Penfolds: still growing depletions, but inventory and pricing pressure dominate the near term

Penfolds remains the crown jewel—and analysts repeatedly frame it as the asset underwriting Treasury’s valuation.

In its ASX update, Treasury said:

Penfolds is still delivering depletions growth in key markets, led by Bin 389 and Bin 407.
China depletions grew 21% in the three months to October, but management expects a slower trajectory than the original FY26 plan due to changes affecting large-scale banqueting occasions. ^[8]

To address both inventory and grey-market disruption, Treasury plans to reduce China distributor inventories by ~0.4 million cases (stated as A$215m NSR value) over about two years starting in 2Q26, while also restricting shipments linked to parallel import activity. ^[9]

Management’s near-term message: Penfolds demand isn’t “dead,” but the route to market is messy enough that protecting pricing and brand equity takes priority over pushing volume.

The Americas problem: California disruption, oversupply concerns, and RNDC uncertainty

If Penfolds is the engine, the U.S. is where the car is currently leaking oil.

Treasury’s Dec. 17 update outlined:

U.S. luxury wine trends have moderated; Treasury’s depletions were weak in California, exacerbated by distribution changes. ^[10]
Treasury Americas 1H26 EBITS expected ~A$40m, with 2H expected to improve. ^[11]
Distributor inventory outside California assessed as ~0.3 million cases above optimal (stated as A$125m NSR value) and targeted to be reduced over roughly two years. ^[12]
Negotiations with RNDC continue; no change to the previously disclosed potential up to A$100m impact to FY26 operating plan NSR related to remaining California inventory. ^[13]

Analysts and trade press coverage have been blunt that U.S. execution has repeatedly challenged Treasury leadership over many years. Food & Drink Business reported that analysts pressed management hard on whether U.S. issues are structural or execution-driven, with the company pointing to the scale and attractiveness of the U.S. luxury market while acknowledging the need for transformation. ^[14]

“TWE Ascent”: the cost-cutting and operating model reboot investors will measure in 2026

Alongside the inventory reset, Treasury announced a new organization-wide transformation program: TWE Ascent.

Key parameters disclosed in the ASX release:

Targeting A$100m per annum in cost improvement
Initial benefits expected to commence in FY27, with full realization over two to three years ^[15]

This matters because Treasury is effectively choosing a path where earnings are pressured now (as shipments are restricted and inventories are rebalanced) while cost benefits arrive later. That timing gap is why some analysts have turned more cautious, even while acknowledging the logic of the reset.

Capital allocation turns defensive: leverage rises, buyback cancelled, dividends under review

One of the most market-sensitive parts of the December update was capital structure.

Treasury said:

Leverage expected to be ~2.5x at 1H26, and above its 1.5–2.0x target range for about two years while customer inventories are rebalanced. ^[16]
The on-market share buyback of up to A$200m (with A$30.5m completed in 1Q26) has been cancelled. ^[17]
Management flagged potential levers including reviewing the dividend payout ratio, considering non-core asset sales, and reviewing planned capital investment—more detail expected with the February half-year results. ^[18]

This is where the “story” of the stock changes from growth optimism to balance-sheet discipline: Treasury is prioritizing flexibility while it works through operational turbulence.

Analyst downgrades and price targets: the Street turns cautious, but not uniform

Late December saw a wave of rating changes and forecast revisions, with analysts converging on a “wait-and-see” stance.

RBC: downgrade on Americas oversupply and limited flexibility

Investing.com reported that RBC Capital downgraded Treasury from Outperform to Sector Perform, cutting its price target to AUD5.40 from AUD8.70, citing structural oversupply challenges in the Americas and limited flexibility to rebalance near term, while noting ongoing risks around inventory and parallel imports. ^[19]

Jefferies: downgrade to Hold, warning the earnings drag could last ~two years

Jefferies also turned more cautious. Investing.com reported Jefferies downgraded Treasury from Buy to Hold and cut its target to AUD5.20 from AUD8.00, arguing that while inventory actions support long-run sustainability, it could take around two years for the earnings drag to fade. The report also highlighted additional U.S. disruption risks tied to RNDC and suggested value realization may be difficult without corporate interest or more drastic strategic moves. ^[20]

Morningstar: fair value cut, but argues the market may have overreacted

Morningstar’s Angus Hewitt cut Morningstar’s fair value estimate by 26% to A$8.50, yet argued the sell-off implies overly pessimistic long-term earnings assumptions. Morningstar also noted the same China depletions growth figure (up 21% in the three months to October) and framed some of the earnings pressure as temporary (inventory and distribution transition effects). ^[21]

Where consensus sits on Dec. 25

Data aggregators don’t perfectly match (they rarely do), but they rhyme:

Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target of ~AUD5.934 (high AUD8.55, low AUD4.8) and an overall rating described as Neutral. ^[22]
Fintel lists an average one‑year price target of $5.62, with forecasts ranging from $4.85 to $8.98. ^[23]

The takeaway: analysts are no longer pricing Treasury like a clean luxury growth story. They’re pricing it like a turnaround with execution risk.

Ownership twist: a French billionaire builds a sizable stake

Adding spice to the end-of-year tape, Proactive Investors reported that French businessman Olivier Goudet appeared as a substantial holder, building a 5.05% stake (about 41 million shares) after a phased buy-in—fueling market chatter about strategic interest and, potentially, private equity attention returning to the name. ^[24]

This doesn’t change fundamentals by itself, but it changes the conversation: deep-pocketed buyers showing up during maximum pessimism is one of the classic “watch this space” signals—especially when the company is openly reviewing capital structure options.

What matters next for Treasury Wine Estates stock in 2026

Treasury’s late‑2025 reset sets up a very specific checklist for 2026. The stock’s direction is likely to hinge less on broad “wine market sentiment” and more on whether the company hits measurable execution milestones.

1) February 2026 half-year results (and capital structure detail)

Treasury has indicated more detail on initiatives like dividends, asset sales, and capex review will come with the FY26 half‑year results in February. ^[25]

2) Evidence the inventory hangover is shrinking (without wrecking pricing)

Investors will watch whether reductions in the U.S. and China inventory positions are happening on schedule—and whether Penfolds pricing in China stabilizes as parallel-import related shipments are restricted. ^[26]

3) Progress (and credibility) on TWE Ascent

A cost-out program that starts delivering in FY27 can still move the stock in FY26—if management shows early traction, clear accountability, and fewer “surprise” revisions. ^[27]

4) Any resolution with RNDC (upside optionality, but not in guidance)

Management explicitly excluded potential RNDC settlement benefits from its 1H26 expectations. Any concrete progress could be treated as upside—markets love upside that wasn’t modeled. ^[28]

Bottom line on Dec. 25, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates stock is finishing 2025 in a state of strategic triage: inventory discipline, brand protection, and balance-sheet flexibility first—growth ambitions second. The market has responded by compressing valuation, triggering downgrades and lower price targets, even as some analysts argue pessimism has overshot what the long-term earnings power justifies. ^[29]

For investors watching TWE into 2026, the company is no longer being judged primarily on how many cases it can sell, but on whether it can do something far harder: sell less (temporarily), protect pricing, cut costs, and regain operational control—without breaking the luxury thesis that Penfolds represents.

References

Westpac (ASX: WBC) Stock Update on 25 December 2025: Share Price, Dividend, Analyst Forecasts, and What to Watch Next

Macquarie Group Ltd Stock (ASX: MQG) News, Forecasts and Analyst Outlook as of 25 December 2025

Woodside Energy Group Ltd Stock (ASX: WDS, NYSE: WDS): CEO Shock, LNG Megaprojects, and Analyst Forecasts as of 25 December 2025

Fortescue Ltd Stock (ASX: FMG) News and Forecasts on 25 December 2025: Copper Expansion, Record Shipments, and the 2026 Iron Ore Outlook