New York, January 8, 2026, 13:01 (EST) — Regular session
Shares of Trex Company, Inc (TREX) rose 8.6% to $39.65 by 1:01 p.m. EST on Thursday. The stock opened at $36.10 and hit a session high of $39.66 after Wolfe Research upgraded it to Outperform.
The move matters because Trex has been trying to claw back confidence after a steep 2025 slide, while investors debate how durable demand is for outdoor-living projects. Wolfe set a $47 price target and said the stock’s 2025 drop left it trading at about 12.3 times its 2026 EV/EBITDA — a debt-adjusted valuation measure — far below its long-term average, while pointing to investor worries over competition after James Hardie’s acquisition of AZEK. 1
BMO Capital analyst Ketan Mamtora reiterated an Outperform rating and a $54 target on Thursday, calling Trex a “high quality name on sale” and saying the stock reaction was “over done,” StreetInsider reported. Trex’s shares had been hit after the company blamed weak market conditions and rate-driven pressure on consumer spending for softer home-improvement demand. 2
Wolfe also argued that consensus 2026 gross margin forecasts look “conservative” and that the discounted valuation “creates a margin of safety,” according to The Fly. Gross margin is the share of sales left after the cost of making a product. 3
Rates are still the big macro lever for housing-linked names, and the tone shifted again on Thursday after Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he would back 150 basis points of cuts this year. Investors will parse the official U.S. jobs report for December on Friday, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar also showing December CPI due on Jan. 13; the Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27-28. 4
But the rally comes with a clear downside case: if demand stays soft, higher selling and administrative costs and gross-margin pressure could weigh on 2026 results. BMO flagged those near-term headwinds even as it said Trex remains the largest North American composite decking producer with roughly 45% market share. 5
