Key takeaways
• TSLA fell 3.7% Friday to close at $429.52; market cap sits near $1.43T, with a 52‑week range of $214.25–$488.54. [1]
• Shareholders approved Elon Musk’s performance‑based pay plan—widely described as “nearly $1T,” and framed by Reuters as “up to $878B”—with more than 75% support. Expect continued debate on governance and “key‑man” risk. [2]
• Tesla stopped taking orders for its cheapest Cybertruck and is emphasizing the ~$100,000 “Foundation” trims—another sign of a premium mix in the near term. [3]
• Q3 2025 delivered records: 497,000 vehicles and 12.5 GWh of energy storage deployments; revenue reached $28.1B, free cash flow nearly $4.0B, and cash & investments rose to $41.6B. [4]
• Regulators are probing FSD (Supervised): the NHTSA opened an inquiry covering ~2.9M vehicles, citing dozens of incidents; that overhang remains a watch item. [5]
• Chips & AI: Tesla inked a $16.5B AI‑chip foundry deal with Samsung and Musk floated a Tesla “mega” AI chip fab with a potential Intel tie‑up. [6]
• Macro this week: U.S. CPI for October lands Thursday (Nov 13) and PPI Friday (Nov 14)—both can swing high‑beta tech, including TSLA. [7]
Where TSLA stands after Friday
Tesla shares lost 3.7% Friday, finishing at $429.52 on heavy volume (103.5M). TSLA now sits roughly mid‑range between its 52‑week low ($214.25) and high ($488.54) as investors digest governance headlines and near‑term demand questions. [8]
The weekend headline: Musk’s unprecedented pay plan won
At Thursday’s annual meeting, shareholders approved a colossal, performance‑contingent compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk—described by Reuters as “up to $878B” over a decade if extreme market‑cap and operating milestones are met, and widely reported as nearly $1T. Analyst reaction was split: supporters called it aligned with long‑term value creation; critics highlighted concentration risk and the sheer scale. [9]
What the package could mean
The vote aims to lock in Musk’s focus as Tesla tries to scale autonomy, robotics and energy. But governance debate won’t vanish: Tesla earlier raised the threshold for small holders to bring derivative suits (to 3% ownership), and litigation linked to Musk’s 2018 package is still winding through Delaware’s courts—even after Tesla’s shift to Texas. Expect the legal narrative to remain part of TSLA’s risk premium. [10]
Product and pricing: Cybertruck emphasis at the top end
Tesla has stopped taking orders for the least‑expensive Cybertruck configuration and is pushing the ~$100,000 versions for immediate delivery. That supports near‑term average selling prices but raises questions about breadth of demand if entry variants stay scarce. [11]
Operations and demand snapshot
• Record quarter: Tesla delivered 497,000 vehicles in Q3 (production 447,000) and deployed a record 12.5 GWh of storage. Revenue hit $28.1B (+12% YoY); free cash flow was nearly $4.0B; cash & investments rose to $41.6B. [12]
• Mix and roadmap: The Q3 deck highlights a Bay Area ride‑hailing service “using Robotaxi technology” and says Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026; first‑gen Optimus lines are being installed. Keep an eye on how quickly these pilots scale into monetization. [13]
Policy shock now moving into comps
U.S. federal EV purchase credits ended Sept. 30, 2025. That “pull‑forward then air‑pocket” dynamic helped Q3 deliveries and may pressure U.S. demand into year‑end absent price actions, financing incentives, or leases that can still channel credits via commercial rules. [14]
Regulatory watch: FSD probe
NHTSA’s October investigation into FSD (Supervised/Beta) cites reports of traffic‑safety violations and collisions; depending on findings, further software changes—or even recalls—could follow. It’s a medium‑term headline risk that can flare on new filings. [15]
Chips, AI and compute capacity
Beyond Nvidia and AMD supply, Tesla secured a multi‑year $16.5B foundry deal with Samsung (linked to AI chip production in Texas). Musk also said Tesla is exploring a “mega” AI chip fab and a potential partnership with Intel—key to scaling autonomy and robotics ambitions if executed. [16]
Macro calendar likely to set the tone this week
Tech leadership and richly valued growth stocks often swing with inflation prints. October CPI hits Thursday (Nov 13, 8:30 a.m. ET) and October PPI Friday (Nov 14). Hotter‑than‑expected numbers would typically pressure duration‑sensitive names like TSLA; cooler data would help. [17]
Numbers to know before the bell
• Last close: $429.52 (Fri). Volume ~103.5M.
• Market cap: ~$1.43T (Fri). [18]
• 52‑week range: $214.25–$488.54. [19]
What to watch at Monday’s open
- Second‑day reaction to Musk’s pay approval and any new broker/analyst notes. Reuters’ roundup captured a split view that could continue to drive headline volatility. [20]
- Order‑book chatter around Cybertruck trims and delivery timelines now that cheaper configurations are paused. [21]
- AI/compute headlines—follow‑ups on Samsung’s chip deal and any detail on an Intel partnership or domestic fab plans. [22]
- Regulatory drip‑feed on the FSD probe. Any new NHTSA documents or data points can move sentiment intraday. [23]
- Macro setup into CPI/PPI: TSLA tends to track broader factor moves in high‑multiple tech on inflation days. [24]
Bottom line
TSLA enters the week with a governance overhang resolved (for now), a premium product mix, robust balance‑sheet liquidity, and bold AI/robotics plans—all offset by U.S. demand uncertainty post‑credit, an active FSD investigation, and the market’s macro sensitivity into CPI/PPI. Expect a headline‑driven open and elevated volatility ahead of Thursday’s inflation print. [25]
Disclosure: This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.macrotrends.net, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.tesla.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.bls.gov, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. ir.tesla.com, 13. assets-ir.tesla.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.bls.gov, 18. www.macrotrends.net, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.bls.gov, 25. assets-ir.tesla.com
