Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) stock is trading with a split screen on Monday, December 15, 2025: TSMC’s Taiwan-listed shares fell sharply in Taipei, while its U.S.-listed ADR (NYSE: TSM) is comparatively steadier as investors weigh a short-term reset in “AI capex” sentiment against fresh demand signals tied to Nvidia’s China business.
As of the latest U.S. update available, TSM ADRs were around $292.8, with an intraday range of about $289.35 to $295.75.
TSMC share price action today: Taipei drops, ADR steadies
In Taiwan, the tech-heavy market sold off, and TSMC closed down 2.03% at NT$1,450 as the TAIEX fell 331.08 points (‑1.17%) to 27,866.94. Local reporting pointed to late-session selling pressure in TSMC and described the move as a technical correction following weakness in U.S. AI-linked stocks. [1]
Meanwhile, the U.S. ADR’s smaller move reflects a market that is trying to stabilize after last week’s volatility in mega-cap tech and semiconductors—while keeping one eye on what matters most for TSMC: foundry utilization, advanced packaging capacity, and the durability of AI infrastructure spending.
What’s driving TSMC stock today: AI “capex trade” cools after U.S. tech warnings
The near-term pressure on Taiwan’s AI complex stems from renewed investor anxiety about whether the AI buildout is becoming too expensive—and whether that cost will translate into profits quickly enough.
Taiwan market commentary tied Monday’s slide to the prior U.S. tech drawdown, citing weaker guidance from Qualcomm as a fresh spark for “AI bubble” fears. [2]
In the U.S., the broader narrative has been shaped by high-profile enterprise AI spending plans and forecasts. For example, Reuters reported that Oracle’s update made investors wary of AI bets, including Oracle’s warning that annual spending would run $15 billion higher than previously planned—a datapoint that fed concerns about the price tag of AI infrastructure. [3]
Put simply: even if demand for chips stays strong, markets can still re-rate the “AI winners” when the capex bill looks open-ended—and that sentiment often hits Taiwan’s supply chain hardest because TSMC sits at its center.
Nvidia-China developments: a potential demand tailwind for TSMC—with conditions
While “AI capex jitters” are a headwind for multiples, near-term demand signals are still pointing up, especially around Nvidia’s data-center roadmap and China.
Two related developments are especially relevant for TSMC investors:
1) Trump clears limited Nvidia H200 exports to China (with a fee)
Reuters reported that President Donald Trump said the U.S. would allow Nvidia’s H200 processors to be exported to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales, framing it as a compromise between security and sustaining U.S. AI leadership. [4]
2) Reuters: Nvidia considers adding H200 capacity due to strong China demand—and TSMC makes the chip
On Dec. 15, Reuters reported Nvidia told Chinese clients it is evaluating adding H200 production capacity after orders exceeded output. Crucially for TSMC, Reuters explicitly noted the H200 is manufactured by TSMC using its 4nm process. [5]
This matters because incremental H200 volume can translate into additional 4nm wafer demand and downstream packaging demand—right in TSMC’s sweet spot.
But the same Reuters report also highlighted constraints and political strings:
- China had not yet greenlit purchases at the time of reporting. [6]
- Chinese officials discussed proposals to bundle H200 purchases with domestic chip requirements, a reminder that policy risk is now part of the demand equation. [7]
- Nvidia faces the practical reality that foundry capacity is finite; Reuters noted Nvidia is competing with others (including Google) for limited advanced chipmaking capacity from TSMC. [8]
Net-net: the Nvidia-China story is a real tailwind for TSMC’s volumes, but it’s not “clean” demand—it comes with approval risk, supply chain constraints, and geopolitics.
Fundamentals check: TSMC’s latest sales snapshot remains strong
Today’s trading is occurring against a backdrop of solid top-line momentum.
In its official monthly update, TSMC reported November 2025 consolidated revenue of approximately NT$343.61 billion, down 6.5% from October but up 24.5% year over year. Revenue for January through November 2025 totaled NT$3,474.05 billion, up 32.8% versus the same period in 2024. [9]
Macro indicators in Taiwan also continue to reflect strong chip and AI demand. Reuters reported Taiwan’s November exports rose 56% year over year to a record $64.05 billion, with the finance ministry pointing to AI and high-performance computing momentum; it also cited expectations for December exports to rise 40%–45% year over year. [10]
For TSMC investors, these data points help explain why the stock can sell off on sentiment while fundamentals still look constructive: the business is performing, but the market is debating how much of that strength is already priced in—and whether AI capex keeps compounding.
Wall Street forecasts: “Buy” consensus, packaging (CoWoS) remains the bottleneck theme
Despite today’s volatility, the Street’s aggregate stance remains positive.
Investing.com’s consensus page shows:
- Overall consensus: Buy
- 15 Buy / 2 Hold / 0 Sell
- Average 12-month price target: $344.57 (about +17.65% upside from the reference price shown) [11]
One widely-circulated driver behind recent target increases is advanced packaging capacity, especially CoWoS (chip-on-wafer-on-substrate), which has become critical for shipping high-end AI accelerators at scale.
A Bernstein note carried by TheFly (via TipRanks) said Bernstein raised its TSMC price target to $330 from $290 and kept an Outperform rating, citing an increase in expected CoWoS capacity to 125,000 wafers per month exiting 2026—“just enough” to support major Nvidia projects (Blackwell and Rubin) in 2025–2026. Bernstein also forecast TSMC revenue growth of 23% in fiscal 2026 and 20% in 2027. [12]
TSMC’s own most recent high-level guidance remains anchored in the AI “megatrend.” Reuters reported that in October, TSMC raised its 2025 revenue guidance to mid-30% growth (U.S. dollar terms) and maintained capital spending up to $42 billion for 2025, with management emphasizing strong customer signals tied to AI. [13]
What investors are watching next
With TSMC, the next catalysts are typically monthly revenue and the next quarterly results, alongside any new signals on AI demand and customer roadmaps.
MarketScreener’s event calendar lists December 2025 sales/revenue release on Jan. 8, 2026, and shows Q4 2025 earnings release as “projected” for Jan. 14, 2026 (dates can change). [14]
Beyond the calendar, investors will likely focus on:
- AI capex discipline: whether hyperscalers and enterprise buyers keep spending at current intensity
- Packaging throughput: CoWoS and related capacity ramp speed versus demand
- China policy risk: approvals, conditions, or reversals affecting AI GPU flow (H200 and beyond)
- Tech valuation reset: whether the market continues rotating away from the most crowded AI trades after recent guidance shocks [15]
Bottom line: today is a sentiment battle, not a “TSMC fundamentals break”
Today’s TSMC stock action looks less like a company-specific deterioration and more like a market-wide repricing of AI enthusiasm—especially in Taiwan—after U.S. guidance and capex headlines rattled confidence.
At the same time, the most TSMC-relevant demand indicator in the current news cycle—Nvidia exploring more H200 output, with Reuters explicitly linking manufacturing to TSMC’s 4nm process—underscores why the longer-term bull case hasn’t disappeared. [16]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.taiwannews.com.tw, 2. focustaiwan.tw, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. pr.tsmc.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketscreener.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com
