Canada’s stock market heads into Christmas week with momentum—and a tighter window for price discovery.
The S&P/TSX Composite finished Friday, December 19 at a fresh record close of 31,755.77, rising 1% on the day, up 0.7% on the week, and leaving the benchmark up 28.4% year-to-date (its strongest annual pace since 2009). [1]
But the coming week is a different animal: it’s holiday-shortened, liquidity typically thins, and the market’s “weekly” narrative will likely be shaped in just two active sessions—before early closes and full-day holidays kick in. [2]
Below is what matters most for Canadian investors in the week ahead, based on market reporting and strategist previews published Dec. 19–21, 2025.
Where the TSX stands right now: a risk-on tape led by miners and tech
Friday’s breakout to a record close wasn’t a narrow, single-sector move. According to Reuters, the advance was powered by technology and metal mining shares in heavy volume, with the materials group up 2.4% and technology up 2.5%. Energy and financials—two heavyweight TSX sectors—also finished higher. [3]
Macro and policy expectations helped set the tone. Reuters flagged two key supports in the background:
- The Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.25%, a three‑year low.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to spending aimed at boosting productivity and accelerating natural resource project construction—an important tailwind for a market with big resource exposure. [4]
Meanwhile, the commodity complex remains central to Canada’s equity story. Oil settled around the mid‑US$50s on Friday, while metals stayed firm—conditions that tend to amplify TSX sector leadership in materials and energy. [5]
Trading schedule: the TSX week is effectively “front-loaded”
If you’re planning around catalysts, the calendar matters as much as the data.
The TSX/TSXV schedule shows:
- Wednesday, Dec. 24 (Christmas Eve): early close at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Thursday, Dec. 25: closed (Christmas Day)
- Friday, Dec. 26: closed (Boxing Day) [6]
In plain English: most of the week’s real price-setting likely happens Monday and Tuesday.
The week-ahead catalyst list for Canada: GDP + the Bank of Canada’s deliberations
Even with holiday conditions, Canada has two macro events that can still move rates, the loonie, and TSX sector leadership.
1) Canada October GDP (Tuesday, Dec. 23)
CIBC’s week-ahead calendar highlights monthly GDP as the key Canadian number. CIBC expects October GDP to decline 0.3% m/m, in line with the advance estimate, while also emphasizing that the weakness may be driven by one-off factors and could be followed by a rebound signal for November. [7]
Why it matters for stocks:
- A softer GDP print can reinforce a lower-rate narrative, potentially supporting rate-sensitive equities (financials, real estate, consumer discretionary).
- But if investors interpret it as broader stagnation rather than “one-offs,” cyclicals can wobble, and the market may rotate back toward defensives and gold-linked names.
2) Bank of Canada “Summary of deliberations” (Tuesday, Dec. 23, 1:30 p.m. ET)
The Bank of Canada is scheduled to publish its summary of deliberations from the meeting leading up to its Dec. 10 rate decision. The release time is 13:30 ET. [8]
CIBC’s preview suggests the summary is likely to show little if any consideration of an interest-rate move, with policymakers balancing downside growth risks against upside inflation risks. [9]
Why it matters for the TSX:
Even without an immediate decision, the tone can shift 2026 rate expectations, which feed directly into valuations, bank margins, and the Canadian dollar—especially in a thin market where small flows can create outsized price moves.
The consumer backdrop: retail sales were soft, but November “flash” bounced
A key datapoint landing right before the holiday week: October retail sales fell 0.2%, according to Statistics Canada, but an early estimate pointed to a 1.2% rebound in November. [10]
Reuters’ FX coverage framed the same pattern as “mixed” and noted that household spending still looks choppy overall—important context for consumer stocks and rate expectations. [11]
Commodities remain the TSX’s swing factor: copper, gold, silver, oil
Canada’s market is famously commodity-sensitive, and the last few sessions reinforced that relationship.
Metals: copper near record highs keeps miners in the driver’s seat
Reuters reported copper hovering near record levels, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and ongoing focus on supply constraints. [12]
On Friday, Reuters attributed the TSX’s record close in part to higher copper and gold prices, which pushed the materials sector sharply higher. [13]
What to watch next:
- Any pullback in copper after the run-up can quickly cool TSX momentum.
- Conversely, a renewed push in copper/gold tends to benefit Canada’s large-cap miners and “materials-heavy” index structure.
Silver: still near record territory
In Friday pre-market coverage, Reuters noted silver trading near record highs—another supportive read-through for Canadian mining exposure and precious-metals sentiment more broadly. [14]
Oil: supportive, but geopolitics still dominate the tape
Oil ended the week around US$56–57 a barrel in Reuters coverage, with daily moves influenced by geopolitics and supply expectations. [15]
For the TSX, that matters because energy can either:
- reinforce the rally when crude stabilizes, or
- become a drag when headlines hit (supply surprises, sanctions shifts, or abrupt peace-deal optimism that changes the expected supply picture).
The Canadian dollar and rates: steady loonie, sensitive setup
The Canadian dollar ended Friday roughly steady near 1.3775 per U.S. dollar, supported by a modest bounce in oil and the retail-sales update, according to Reuters. [16]
Why that matters for Canadian equities:
- A weaker CAD can be supportive for exporters and companies reporting in USD, but can also reflect growth concerns.
- A stronger CAD can signal confidence and help cool imported inflation, but may weigh on exporters’ translated earnings.
With a Bank of Canada deliberations release arriving Tuesday, the loonie could be more reactive than usual—especially given the holiday-thinned environment.
“Santa rally” conditions: supportive seasonality, but low liquidity cuts both ways
A major theme in global and Canadian strategy notes published Dec. 19 is the classic year-end question: does a “Santa rally” show up this year?
- Reuters’ week-ahead coverage described investor focus on the traditional Santa-rally window (late December into early January) after a volatile stretch for U.S. equities. [17]
- Scotiabank’s “Two‑Week Holidaynomics Edition” similarly pointed to the seasonal tendency for stocks to rise during this period, while emphasizing the reality of lower volumes and fewer catalysts during the holidays. [18]
For the TSX specifically, this combination often produces:
- quick, momentum-driven pops (especially in sectors already leading), and
- air pockets when a headline hits and there aren’t enough bids.
Company and sector stories to have on your radar
Even in a quiet week, single-stock moves can dominate headlines—particularly when broad trading volume is lighter.
BlackBerry: results-driven volatility
Reuters flagged BlackBerry after quarterly results and guidance updates, and noted the stock slid sharply on Friday even as the broader tech sector gained. [19]
Mining deal flow: Lundin Mining / Talon Metals
In corporate news tied to the TSX materials complex, Reuters reported Lundin Mining planned to sell its Eagle nickel-copper mine and Humboldt Mill to Talon Metals in a deal valued around $84 million. [20]
For a TSX that has been riding metals strength, miners’ M&A, divestitures, and project updates can punch above their weight in headlines.
Trade risk is back in the macro conversation
While the coming week’s data calendar is short, the policy calendar is not.
The Associated Press reported Canada and the U.S. are set to launch formal talks in mid‑January to review the USMCA agreement ahead of its 2026 review deadline, amid ongoing trade tensions and tariff disputes affecting key sectors. [21]
This matters for Canadian equities because trade-sensitive industries (autos, industrials, metals, lumber-linked names) can react quickly to even incremental shifts in tone—especially when liquidity is thin.
The bottom line for the TSX this week
Canada’s benchmark enters the week ahead from a position of strength: a record close, broad sector participation, and commodity support—plus a policy backdrop still defined by easier rates than investors were pricing a year ago. [22]
But with the TSX calendar compressed, the week’s “make-or-break” moments are highly concentrated:
- Tuesday’s Canada GDP (Oct) is the key growth pulse. [23]
- Tuesday’s Bank of Canada deliberations summary is the key policy read-through. [24]
- And commodities—especially copper, gold, and oil—remain the fastest transmission channel into TSX leadership. [25]
If those inputs stay supportive, a thin-market “Santa drift” higher is plausible. If any of them disappoint—particularly GDP or an unexpected policy tone—the same thin market can magnify downside swings.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.tsx.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.tsx.com, 7. woodgundyadvisors.cibc.com, 8. www.bankofcanada.ca, 9. woodgundyadvisors.cibc.com, 10. toronto.citynews.ca, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.scotiabank.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. woodgundyadvisors.cibc.com, 24. www.bankofcanada.ca, 25. www.reuters.com
