Toronto’s main stock index powered to a fresh all‑time high on Tuesday, extending a two‑day surge as investors doubled down on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December and as heavyweight industrial, financial and resource stocks all pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished around 30,901, up roughly 296 points, or 0.97%, marking a second straight strong advance and its highest closing level on record. [1]
The move builds on Monday’s 1.5% jump of more than 440 points, which had already carried the benchmark back above 30,600 for the first time since mid‑November. [2]
A Record Close for Canada’s Benchmark Index
Market data show the S&P/TSX Composite opened near 30,624 and traded between roughly 30,572 and 30,924 before settling just under 30,901, with volume north of 280 million shares. [3]
That closing level nudges the index above its previous peak around 30,863 set earlier this month, confirming a new record high for Canada’s primary equity benchmark. [4]
The S&P/TSX Composite is the headline index for the Toronto Stock Exchange, representing roughly 70% of the exchange’s total market capitalization and including more than 200 of its largest and most liquid listings. [5]
Tuesday’s advance means the index has now gained about 2.5% over the last two sessions alone, as investors pile back into cyclicals, financials and select commodity names.
Rate‑Cut Hopes and Softer Inflation Set the Macro Backdrop
The latest leg of the rally is tightly linked to interest‑rate expectations south of the border.
Futures pricing suggests markets now see roughly an 80–85% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its December meeting, up sharply from around 50% a week ago. [6]
U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower on Tuesday, with the 10‑year yield slipping back below 4%, reinforcing the view that monetary policy is likely to ease after a year of aggressive tightening. [7]
In Canada, the macro environment is also turning more supportive for equities. Headline inflation slowed to 2.2% year‑over‑year in October, helped by falling gasoline prices and softer food inflation, and key measures of core inflation have edged lower as well. [8] The Bank of Canada’s policy rate stands at 2.25%, with the next rate announcement scheduled for December 10, 2025, keeping attention firmly on incoming data and central‑bank messaging. [9]
Put together, those trends have encouraged investors to rotate back into interest‑sensitive sectors like financials and real estate while continuing to support growth‑oriented names in technology and industrials.
Industrials and Financials Lead as Rails and Banks Surge
The strongest tailwind for the TSX on Tuesday came from industrials and financials, two of the index’s largest sectors.
A Trading Economics / TradingView market note highlighted that Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. and Canadian National Railway Co. each advanced just over 2%, making the big railway operators some of the session’s top blue‑chip performers and adding meaningful points to the index. [10]
Canada’s big banks also joined the rally. Shares of Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, Brookfield and Manulife all gained in a roughly 1.1%–2.1% range, according to the same report, extending a rebound that began on Monday as rate‑cut expectations firmed up. [11]
Those moves align with a broader narrative: as bond yields fall and credit conditions appear set to ease, investors become more comfortable with sectors whose profitability is sensitive to the yield curve, loan demand and capital‑markets activity.
Midday Snapshot: Industrial Strength, Mixed Wall Street
By late morning, Canada’s main index was already up nearly 200 points, with industrial names in particular driving the advance, while U.S. equity markets were mixed. [12]
At that point, crude oil prices were modestly lower on the day, while gold was sharply higher, underlining the tug‑of‑war between growth optimism and lingering caution that continues to shape sector rotation. [13]
The Canadian dollar hovered around 70.9 U.S. cents, little changed from Monday’s close, suggesting FX markets have largely priced in the current interest‑rate outlook. [14]
Couche‑Tard Earnings Light Up the Consumer Space
One of the busiest single‑stock stories on the TSX today was Alimentation Couche‑Tard Inc. (ATD), the global convenience‑store operator behind Circle K.
After the company reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results late Monday, investors spent Tuesday digesting an earnings update that showed:
- Net income attributable to shareholders up about 4.5% year‑over‑year to US$740.6 million, or US$0.79 per diluted share,
- Adjusted diluted EPS of US$0.78, ahead of analyst expectations around US$0.75, and
- Same‑store merchandise revenue growth of roughly 1.2% in the U.S. and a strong 5.4% in Canada for the quarter. [15]
Couche‑Tard’s management emphasized that customers facing a cost‑of‑living squeeze are gravitating toward bundled “meal deals” and that recently liberalized rules around alcohol sales in Ontario have provided a further boost to Canadian stores. [16]
The stock reaction was emphatic: Couche‑Tard shares traded about 5% higher on the TSX in early afternoon, adding a notable consumer‑staples tailwind to the broader index. [17]
Between the earnings beat, stronger merchandise sales and upbeat commentary on fresh and prepared foods, Couche‑Tard was one of the clearest single‑name winners on Bay Street today.
Resources: Gold Strength, Uranium Deal Buzz, Oil Softness
Resource names also chipped in to Tuesday’s record close, even as the commodity tape looked mixed.
A Trading Economics summary noted that Barrick Gold Corp. reached a settlement of about $430 million (244 billion CFA francs) to resolve disputes over its Loulo‑Gounkoto gold complex in West Africa, removing a lingering legal overhang for the miner. [18]
Meanwhile, Cameco Corp. climbed roughly 4–5% after Canada and India moved closer to finalizing a US$2.8 billion uranium export deal, according to the same report, helping to lift sentiment toward uranium producers and the broader materials complex. [19]
Gold prices were solidly higher on the day, adding to gains that often accompany falling bond yields and higher expectations for monetary easing. Crude oil, in contrast, traded about 1.5% lower near US$58 a barrel, as concerns around near‑term demand outweighed supply risks. [20]
The combination helped the TSX’s diversified resource base: precious‑metal and uranium names supplied upside, while energy stocks had to work harder against weaker oil benchmarks.
Real Estate Reshuffle: H&R REIT’s $1.5 Billion Property Sale
Outside the headline index level, a major real‑estate transaction also grabbed attention.
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (HR.UN) announced it has entered into binding agreements with multiple buyers to sell a package of retail and office properties in Canada and the United States, with total gross proceeds of approximately $1.5 billion. [21]
According to the REIT’s news release, the assets being sold include: [22]
- A 33.1% interest in Echo Realty L.P.’s U.S. retail portfolio
- 27 Canadian retail properties
- Hess Tower, an office building in Houston
- 145 Wellington, a downtown Toronto office tower
- 88 McNabb, an office property in the Greater Toronto Area
H&R said the proceeds roughly match the assets’ IFRS values and will be used to further strengthen the balance sheet and accelerate a multi‑year simplification strategy that shifts the portfolio toward residential and industrial properties, which together will represent more than 80% of total real‑estate assets after the sales close. [23]
While REIT units trade more on income and net asset value than daily headlines, moves of this size can influence the TSX’s real‑estate cohort and are closely watched by investors focused on leverage, asset mix and exposure to challenged office markets.
Mid‑Cap and Thematic Notes: ESG and Energy Storage
Smaller names and niche products also contributed to Tuesday’s flow of TSX‑related news:
- Electrovaya Inc. (ELVA), a lithium‑ion battery technology and manufacturing company listed on both Nasdaq and the TSX, announced it will release Q4 and full‑year 2025 results and host a conference call on December 10, 2025. The company has recently highlighted triple‑digit three‑year revenue growth and progress on drawing down a U.S. EXIM Bank facility to fund its New York battery plant. [24]
- An ETF focused on sustainability, the Invesco S&P/TSX Composite ESG Tilt Index ETF (ICTE), appeared in trading commentary as analysts updated AI‑driven signals and positioning for the fund, which tracks an ESG‑tilted version of the main Canadian benchmark. [25]
These developments don’t move the index in the same way as a bank or a major miner, but they show how themes such as energy storage, green technology and ESG‑aligned investing are increasingly woven into the fabric of Canada’s equity market.
How Today Fits Into the Bigger Picture for the TSX
Tuesday’s record close leaves the S&P/TSX Composite up more than 20% over the past year, outpacing many global developed‑market benchmarks and reflecting both a recovery in cyclical sectors and strong earnings from key index constituents. [26]
Key drivers behind that performance:
- Cooling inflation in Canada and abroad has given central banks room to at least discuss cuts rather than more hikes. [27]
- Rate‑cut expectations for the Fed and Bank of Canada are pushing yields lower and supporting risk assets. [28]
- Commodity resilience, particularly in gold and uranium, has offset softness in crude oil and natural gas. [29]
- Company‑specific catalysts—from Couche‑Tard’s earnings beat to H&R REIT’s asset sales and Cameco’s prospective uranium deal—are helping to re‑rate individual names and sectors. [30]
For investors, the immediate focus now shifts to:
- The December Fed meeting, where markets are heavily betting on a first cut in this cycle
- The Bank of Canada’s December 10 rate decision and updated economic outlook
- Upcoming earnings and guidance from other TSX heavyweights in banking, energy and materials
- Ongoing moves in oil, gold and key industrial commodities
If rate‑cut hopes are fulfilled and the soft‑landing narrative holds, today’s record close may not be the final word on how high the TSX can go. If central banks disappoint or data turn sharply weaker, the index’s rapid two‑day climb could also make it more vulnerable to a bout of volatility.
Either way, November 25, 2025 will go down as the day Canada’s flagship stock index carved out a new high‑water mark, powered by rails, banks, resource names and a convenience‑store giant selling a lot of meal deals.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.moosejawtoday.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.google.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.bankofcanada.ca, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. halifax.citynews.ca, 13. halifax.citynews.ca, 14. halifax.citynews.ca, 15. corporate.couche-tard.com, 16. www.castanet.net, 17. www.castanet.net, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. tradingeconomics.com, 21. www.hr-reit.com, 22. www.hr-reit.com, 23. www.hr-reit.com, 24. electrovaya.com, 25. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. tradingeconomics.com, 30. www.tradingview.com
