U.S. Economic Calendar Today: Jobless Claims Hit 3‑Year Low as Markets Await Trade & PCE Data

Published: December 4, 2025

Snapshot: Today’s U.S. Economic Calendar (December 4, 2025)

Major scheduled and released U.S. indicators today:

8:30 a.m. ET – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Nov. 29) – Released
8:30 a.m. ET – Continuing Jobless Claims – Released
10:00 a.m. ET – Factory Orders (Full M3 report for September, shutdown‑delayed) – Scheduled
7:30 a.m. ET – Challenger Job Cuts (November)
10:30 a.m. ET – EIA Natural Gas Storage
11:30 a.m. ET – 4‑Week & 8‑Week Treasury Bill Auctions
12:00 p.m. ET – Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (FOMC member) ^[1]

In the background, investors are also focused on Friday’s heavy slate of delayed data:

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (October, rescheduled) at 8:30 a.m. ET ^[2]
September Personal Income & Outlays (including the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge), delayed by the 43‑day government shutdown ^[3]

Labor Market in Focus: Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Since 2022

The headline story on today’s U.S. economic calendar is the weekly unemployment insurance claims report from the Department of Labor.

Initial jobless claims: 191,000 — a three‑year low

For the week ending November 29, 2025, initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000, the lowest reading since late September 2022. ^[4]

Key details from the release:

Initial claims: 191,000 (down from a revised 218,000 the prior week)
Four‑week moving average: 214,750 (down 9,500)
Insured unemployment rate: 1.3%
Continuing claims: 1.939 million (down 4,000) for the week ending Nov. 22 ^[5]

News outlets from Reuters to the Washington Post and ABC/AP are highlighting that filings for jobless benefits are at their lowest level in more than three years, undercutting expectations for a mild uptick and reinforcing the narrative of a still‑resilient labor market. ^[6]

The surprise is notable because it comes just after:

An ADP private payrolls report earlier in the week showing the steepest drop in private employment in more than two and a half years. ^[7]
Ongoing signs of a gradual rise in the official unemployment rate, which alternative models like the Chicago Fed’s “nowcast” of unemployment put at around 4.4% for November. ^[8]

How markets are reacting:

Equity futures were little changed heading into the open, with Dow and S&P 500 futures fractionally higher and Nasdaq futures slightly negative as traders weighed the stronger‑than‑expected claims figure against hopes for a Fed rate cut next week. ^[9]
Fed funds futures still price roughly an ~89% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut at the December meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool cited by Reuters, though today’s data somewhat complicates the case for aggressive easing. ^[10]

In short, “no-fire, no-hire” may be softening into “still-no-fire”: layoffs remain rare even as hiring momentum cools.

Factory Orders & Manufacturing: Catch‑Up Day After the Shutdown

Today’s economic calendar also includes a shutdown‑delayed release from the Commerce Department:

Full factory orders report (M3) for September 2025

The “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders” full report for September 2025 — the government’s core factory orders release — was originally scheduled for early November but was postponed during the federal funding lapse. Census now lists it as rescheduled for release on December 4, 2025. ^[11]

What this report covers:

New orders for manufactured goods (the headline “factory orders” series)
Shipments, inventories, and unfilled orders
Breakdowns by major industries and durable vs. nondurable goods

The latest available full report (for August 2025) showed: ^[12]

New orders up 1.4%, rebounding after two monthly declines
Shipments down 0.1%, hinting at softer near‑term activity
Unfilled orders up 0.6%, continuing a long run of backlog growth

Ahead of today’s September release, Investing.com’s economic calendar flagged expectations for factory orders to hold around that 1.4% monthly growth pace, with traders focused on revisions to durable goods and core capital goods orders (non‑defense ex‑aircraft). ^[13]

Why it matters:

Business investment signal: Core capital goods orders embedded in this report are a key proxy for corporate CAPEX plans.
Tariff and reshoring backdrop: With ongoing trade tensions and reshoring policies, analysts are watching whether manufacturing is stabilizing or slipping back toward contraction. ^[14]

Because the report is part of the backlog of shutdown‑delayed releases, it’s especially important to analysts trying to reconstruct a clean picture of Q3 and early Q4 manufacturing trends. ^[15]

What’s Not Coming Today: Trade and PCE Still Delayed

The U.S. economic calendar is still distorted by the 43‑day government shutdown that froze releases from the Census Bureau, BEA, and BLS. ^[16]

International trade (October 2025)

Originally, today was supposed to bring the October 2025 report on U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900) — the flagship monthly trade deficit release. Earlier BEA materials and 2024 release calendars had penciled in December 4, 2025 as the date for October trade. ^[17]

However, BEA’s updated post‑shutdown release schedule shows:

October 2025 trade data have been pushed to December 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET. ^[18]

The last available trade report, for August 2025, showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowing sharply to about $59.6 billion, down from $78.2 billion in July — a release that itself was delayed into November because of the shutdown. ^[19]

Markets will therefore not get fresh trade data today; they’re simply waiting one more day to see whether the deficit widened again as the backlog of imports and exports cleared.

PCE inflation & Personal Income/Outlays (September & October)

The shutdown also scrambled the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

According to BEA and a detailed rundown from Investopedia, the revised calendar now looks like this: ^[20]

September PCE, personal income and outlays
- New date: December 5, 2025
- Originally due: October 31
October PCE, personal income and outlays
- Marked as “to be rescheduled”, with final timing still unclear
Other delayed reports (housing, inventories, retail sales, CPI, JOLTS, GDP) will stretch into late December

For today’s calendar, that means no inflation or income/spending release, even though historically PCE often lands in the same window as the trade report.

Fed Watch: Michelle Bowman’s Midday Remarks

In a normal week, a single Fed speech might be a minor event. In a week where the central bank is expected to cut rates at its meeting next week, every word is under a microscope.

12:00 p.m. ET – FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman speaks

Investing.com and other calendars highlight a noon‑hour speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, one of the Federal Reserve’s policymakers with a reputation for emphasizing inflation risks. ^[21]

Context:

Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently signaled he favors a rate cut at the December meeting, arguing inflation is under control while the labor market is weakening. ^[22]
Other officials like Susan Collins of the Boston Fed have urged caution, warning that global fragmentation and supply shocks could keep inflation pressures elevated, making premature cuts risky. ^[23]

With Trump poised to name Jerome Powell’s successor early next year, political noise around the Fed is also higher than usual, and markets are scrutinizing each speech for hints of internal disagreement over the pace and scale of easing. ^[24]

Today’s Bowman appearance therefore functions as a key qualitative complement to the quantitative data on the calendar, especially given the mixed labor signals (strong jobless claims, softer ADP and alternative job metrics).

Secondary U.S. Data: Layoffs, Energy, and Funding Rates

Beyond the headline releases, today’s U.S. economic calendar includes several second‑tier but still market‑relevant indicators:

Challenger Job Cuts (7:30 a.m. ET)

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cuts report provides a monthly look at announced corporate layoffs, broken down by sector and region. Today’s release covers November 2025, following a prior reading of roughly 153,000 layoffsand a year‑over‑year decline of about 25.8%. ^[25]

While it doesn’t always move markets on its own, it:

Helps explain sector‑specific layoff stories (e.g., tech vs. manufacturing)
Serves as an early warning if cuts suddenly spike, especially alongside rising continuing claims

Natural gas storage (10:30 a.m. ET)

The EIA natural gas storage report remains a staple for energy traders, especially with winter heating demand and power prices in focus. Today’s data come on the heels of an 11‑billion‑cubic‑foot draw the prior week. ^[26]

Though not a macro bellwether, it can influence:

Energy equities and utilities
Inflation expectations around energy if sustained draws or extreme weather shocks emerge

Treasury bill auctions (11:30 a.m. ET)

The Treasury is scheduled to sell:

4‑week bills (prior yield ~3.905%)
8‑week bills (prior yield ~3.84%) ^[27]

In the current environment of:

Anticipated Fed cuts
Large ongoing Treasury supply
Questions about term premia and demand for short‑dated paper,

these auctions are a quiet but useful gauge of how comfortable markets are with the near‑term rate path.

Money market & funding benchmarks

According to the St. Louis Fed’s release calendar, today also features updated data for: ^[28]

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) averages and index
Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR)
Effective federal funds rate

These benchmarks affect everything from floating‑rate corporate loans to derivatives pricing, and they help traders see how smoothly short‑term funding markets are digesting expectations of Fed easing.

Markets and the U.S. Dollar: Reading Today’s Calendar

With claims beating expectations and other key data still in the queue, markets are in “wait and reassess” mode rather than decisively trending.

The U.S. dollar slipped to roughly one‑month lows earlier as rate‑cut bets built, though today’s labor surprise is helping it stabilize. ^[29]
Gold prices are modestly lower as traders lock in profits and look ahead to next week’s Fed meeting. ^[30]
Overseas, risk appetite remains strong — the Nikkei 225 jumped above 51,000 amid optimism over AI‑related earnings and speculation about a Bank of Japan rate hike, reminding investors that global central bank dynamics also feed back into U.S. markets. TechStock²+1

For U.S. assets, today’s economic calendar reinforces three themes:

Labor market: still tight at the margin
- Claims data argue against an imminent spike in unemployment.
Data visibility: still compromised by shutdown delays
- Trade, PCE, housing, and inventories are coming in clumps, making it harder to see turning points in real time. ^[31]
Fed outlook: leaning dovish, but dependent on Friday’s data
- Futures pricing suggests a December cut is still very likely, but the size and pace of any easing cycle will depend heavily on Friday’s trade and PCE releases as well as broader labor data later this month. ^[32]

FAQ: Understanding the U.S. Economic Calendar in Late 2025

Why are so many U.S. economic reports delayed right now?

A 43‑day federal government shutdown earlier this year forced agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis to halt data releases. Even after reopening, many series had to be rescheduled, consolidated, or in some cases canceled, creating a backlog that agencies are still working through. ^[33]

Which key U.S. reports are still missing or off‑schedule?

Per BEA, Census, and BLS updates summarized by Investopedia, the following remain delayed or rescheduled: ^[34]

September and October trade and advanced trade data
September & October housing starts and new home sales
October and November retail sales
September business inventories
October PCE (income & outlays)
Some CPI and JOLTS releases and Q3 GDP estimates, which have been shifted into mid‑ to late‑December

What should investors watch next after today?

From an economic calendar perspective, the next big checkpoints are:

Friday, December 5, 2025
- September PCE & personal income/outlays (shutdown‑delayed)
- October international trade balance ^[35]
December 9–10
- Dual September & October JOLTS
- Q3 Employment Cost Index ^[36]
December 16
- November jobs report (with October payrolls folded in) — the first full employment report since the shutdown disruptions. ^[37]
December 18 & 23
- CPI and GDP releases that will heavily shape expectations for the 2026 Fed path. ^[38]

How to Use Today’s U.S. Economic Calendar

For traders, portfolio managers, and macro‑focused readers, here’s how to translate today’s economic calendar into action:

Equities:
- Strong jobless claims numbers support the case for soft‑landing scenarios, a positive for cyclicals and small‑caps, but may temper enthusiasm for very aggressive Fed cuts that high‑growth tech names have been pricing in. ^[39]
Bonds & rates:
- The drop in claims pushes back against the idea of an imminent recession, potentially keeping long‑term yields from collapsing even if the Fed cuts once in December. Watch T‑bill auctions and funding rates for confirmation of how the front end is digesting this. ^[40]
FX & commodities:
- A slightly firmer dollar on the back of stronger labor data could cap gold and weigh on some high‑beta currencies, though speculation about global easing (especially BOJ and Fed) keeps volatility elevated. ^[41]

The bottom line: December 4, 2025 sits between a surprisingly strong weekly labor reading and a wall of delayed macro data still to come. Today’s U.S. economic calendar doesn’t settle the debate about how quickly the Fed will ease next year — but it does tilt the scales toward the view that the labor market remains tighter than many had assumed heading into the final stretch of 2025.