Ahead of the U.S. market open on Friday, December 26, 2025, Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) is heading into a post-holiday session with an unusually busy headline backdrop—spanning regulatory scrutiny of Uber One, rapid robotaxi expansion via partnerships, and fresh third‑party confidence signals (including an S&P Global Ratings outlook change). With U.S. equities coming off a Christmas Eve early close (Dec. 24) and Christmas Day market closure (Dec. 25), traders should also factor in thin year-end liquidity that can exaggerate moves. [1]
Below is what investors typically want to know before the opening bell: where the stock left off, what’s driving sentiment now, what Wall Street forecasts imply, and the key catalysts and risks that could move Uber shares today and into early 2026.
Uber stock price check: where UBER stands entering the Dec. 26 session
Uber shares last traded around $81.15 following the shortened Dec. 24 session (the most recent U.S. trading day before the Dec. 26 open). [2]
Two quick context points matter for “setup” reads:
- 52-week range has been roughly $60.02 to $101.99, meaning the stock is still well below its 2025 peak even after a strong year in the broader market. [3]
- That distance to the high is part of why the tape can be sensitive to “narrative” shifts—especially around robotaxis (opportunity vs. disruption).
The biggest headlines moving Uber right now
1) Regulators escalate scrutiny of Uber One subscription practices
One of the most immediate headline risks is U.S. regulatory and legal pressure tied to Uber One, Uber’s paid membership program.
- Dec. 15, 2025: The FTC, 21 states, and D.C. filed an amended complaint alleging deceptive billing and cancellation practices related to Uber One. Uber has denied the allegations and said cancellation is quick for most users. [4]
- Dec. 16, 2025: The D.C. Attorney General publicly detailed D.C.’s participation and the allegations around enrollment/billing/cancellation. [5]
- Market sensitivity is real: Reuters reported Uber shares fell more than 3% after the amended complaint became public. [6]
Why this matters for UBER stock: Uber One is central to the company’s “frequency” strategy (more rides + more Eats + more retention). Any outcome that forces UX changes, refunds, fines, or marketing restrictions can create overhang—even if the business impact proves manageable.
2) Robotaxis: Uber is accelerating via partnerships—Dallas and Dubai are live, London is next
Uber’s autonomy story is no longer theoretical. In December, Uber highlighted live robotaxi experiences in the app—still largely “supervised” today, but designed as stepping stones to fully driverless operations.
Dallas (Avride) – live as of Dec. 3
Uber announced that riders in parts of Dallas can be matched with an all‑electric Avride robotaxi on select products, with an on-board specialist at launch and an aim to transition to fully driverless operations later. [7]
Dubai (WeRide) – live as of Dec. 12
Uber and WeRide announced robotaxi passenger rides in Dubai via an “Autonomous” option in the Uber app (select areas first). The release described the rollout as a public trial with a specialist onboard, “laying the groundwork” for fully driverless commercial service in early 2026. [8]
London (Baidu/Apollo Go) – planned trials in 2026
Reuters and AP reported Uber’s plans to participate in a UK program tied to robotaxi deployment in London through partnerships with Baidu’s Apollo Go (with trials expected to begin in 2026). [9]
Why this matters for UBER stock:
- Bulls see Uber as the “distribution layer”—an app and marketplace that can route demand to human drivers today and AV fleets tomorrow.
- Bears worry robotaxis become a direct competitive threat if a dominant AV operator controls both supply and demand.
MarketWatch captured that debate directly, framing robotaxis as a key reason some investors discount Uber’s valuation even as fundamentals improve. [10]
3) Labor classification remains a global risk—New Zealand ruling is a reminder
Another major structural issue for Uber globally is how regulators and courts classify drivers.
In Nov. 2025, Reuters reported New Zealand’s top court ruled (in a test case) that certain Uber drivers were employees rather than contractors, potentially influencing how driver rights and costs evolve in other jurisdictions. [11]
This doesn’t automatically rewrite Uber’s model worldwide, but it reinforces that labor classification can re-emerge as a cost and compliance swing factor.
Fundamentals check: Uber’s latest earnings and what it guided next
Uber’s most recent reported quarter is Q3 2025 (reported Nov. 4, 2025). Key takeaways from the company’s earnings release:
- Trips: 3.5 billion (+22% YoY)
- Gross Bookings: $49.7B (+21% YoY)
- Revenue: $13.5B (+20% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $2.3B (+33% YoY)
- Free cash flow: $2.2B
- Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments: $9.1B
- Uber also stated it intended to redeem $1.2B of convertible notes due December 2025 in Q4. [12]
Q4 2025 outlook (what the company told investors to expect)
Uber guided for:
- Gross Bookings: $52.25B to $53.75B
- Adjusted EBITDA: $2.41B to $2.51B [13]
That Q4 outlook is important heading into today’s session because Uber’s next earnings report will effectively be a scorecard on whether the company converted holiday quarter demand into margin and cash flow in line with (or ahead of) guidance.
Next earnings date: what calendars currently show
Market calendars list Uber’s next earnings as estimated around Feb. 4, 2026 (before market open) (noted as “estimated/unconfirmed” on some calendars). [14]
Capital returns: the buyback is still part of the bull thesis
Uber has been leaning harder into shareholder returns:
- Uber’s Q2 2025 results release highlighted a new share repurchase program authorized up to an additional $20B. [15]
- Reuters also covered the $20B authorization and framed it as part of Uber’s effort to drive growth and return capital. [16]
- Earlier, Uber announced a $1.5B accelerated share repurchase (ASR) with an initial delivery of ~18.6M shares (about 80% of the expected repurchase under the ASR at that stage). [17]
For UBER stock, buybacks can matter in two ways:
- They can provide downside support during volatility;
- They signal management’s confidence that free cash flow is durable enough to fund repurchases while still investing in growth (including autonomy).
New growth engines investors are watching
Uber Advertising is becoming “real money”
Uber’s advertising business has been steadily climbing in importance because it can be high-margin and leverages existing demand.
- Business Insider reported Uber has said its ad business is on track to generate $1.5B in revenue in 2025, and it recently launched an insights platform aimed at advertisers. [18]
- Uber’s own advertising press page has described the unit surpassing a $1.5B annual revenue run rate (as of Q1 2025) with strong year-over-year growth. [19]
AI services and data labeling: Segments.ai acquisition
Uber has also been expanding Uber AI Solutions, including through M&A:
- Semafor and CIO reported Uber acquired Belgian startup Segments.ai, a data-labeling platform used for robotics and autonomous driving training data, as part of a push into AI training/services. [20]
This doesn’t move near-term ride-hailing revenue, but it strengthens the “Uber as an applied AI company” narrative—and supports the autonomy ecosystem Uber wants to participate in without owning fleets outright.
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street thinks Uber stock could go next
Across major tracking services, the Street’s baseline view remains constructive:
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus of “Strong Buy” with an average price target around $108.75 (with targets spanning roughly $78 to $150, depending on the analyst). [21]
- MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page similarly shows a median target near $110 and a wide dispersion between low and high targets. [22]
At a price around ~$81, that typical ~$109–$110 target range implies roughly mid‑30% upside over the next 12 months—but investors should treat that as a forecast range, not a promise, and note that price targets can change quickly when regulation or autonomy narratives shift.
The debate behind the targets: robotaxis vs. Uber as the “aggregator”
A recent MarketWatch analysis highlighted how some investors worry robotaxis could be an “existential” competitive threat, while at least one major bullish view argues Uber is being overly discounted relative to its fundamentals and partnership strategy. [23]
What to watch specifically at the Dec. 26, 2025 open
Here’s a practical checklist of the most relevant items for the Dec. 26 session (a low-liquidity day can amplify these):
- Any fresh developments in the FTC / multi‑state Uber One case
New filings, statements from regulators, or Uber responses can move sentiment quickly. [24] - Robotaxi headlines—especially London policy signals or partner updates
Uber’s autonomy narrative is currently headline-driven (Dallas/Dubai live, London planned). [25] - “Holiday quarter” read-through
Uber guided Q4 gross bookings and EBITDA; investors will parse any data points (travel demand, Eats order strength, promotions, membership momentum) that hint at whether Uber is tracking above/below its outlook. [26] - Capital return expectations
Buyback pace isn’t reported daily, but the existence of large authorization can influence how investors view dips and volatility. [27] - Regulatory and labor classification updates internationally
The New Zealand ruling is a reminder that labor classification remains a live issue globally. [28]
Bottom line for Uber stock before today’s open
Uber enters the Dec. 26, 2025 session as a company with:
- Strong recent operating metrics and cash generation (per Q3 results and Q4 guidance), [29]
- A major capital return program that can support the stock over time, [30]
- And a rapidly evolving autonomy strategy built on partnerships, with real robotaxi experiences already live in select markets. [31]
But the near-term tape may be dominated by two competing forces:
- Regulatory/legal uncertainty around Uber One (headline risk), [32]
- Versus the narrative that Uber is positioning itself as the platform layer for both human-driven and autonomous mobility, which could expand its addressable market over time if partnerships scale successfully. [33]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. oag.dc.gov, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. investor.uber.com, 8. investor.uber.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. investor.uber.com, 13. investor.uber.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. investor.uber.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. investor.uber.com, 18. www.businessinsider.com, 19. www.uber.com, 20. www.semafor.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. investor.uber.com, 26. investor.uber.com, 27. investor.uber.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. investor.uber.com, 30. investor.uber.com, 31. investor.uber.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.marketwatch.com
