Dec. 22, 2025 — Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) is ending the year with a familiar investor paradox: the business looks stronger on many core metrics, yet the stock has been trading like a company facing an “existential” technology threat. The latest catalyst arrived Monday with a headline that lands directly in the center of that debate—Uber and Lyft said they will work with China’s Baidu to launch driverless taxi trials in the U.K. in 2026, adding another major autonomy partner to Uber’s growing robotaxi web. [1]
As of Monday afternoon, Uber shares were around $82, up roughly 3% on the session, reflecting renewed attention on a question that is increasingly shaping 2026 expectations: Will robotaxis disintermediate Uber—or make the company even more valuable as the “platform layer” that connects riders to whoever owns the fleet? [2]
Below is what’s driving the conversation right now, based on the most-read investor themes circulating today—Uber’s user scale, its profitability pivot, and the robotaxi arms race—and the key risks that remain on the table heading into 2026.
Today’s headline: Uber and Lyft bring Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxis to London
Uber and Lyft said Monday they are partnering with Baidu to launch driverless taxi trials in the U.K. next year, with Baidu’s Apollo Go RT6 vehicles set to join the London networks of both ride-hailing platforms in 2026. [3]
The U.K. is becoming a focal point for autonomy pilots in part because of its evolving regulatory framework. Reuters pointed specifically to the Automated Vehicles Act 2024, which provides a clearer legal structure on liability—shifting responsibility for incidents away from passengers and toward an “authorized self-driving entity.” [4]
The London robotaxi testbed is also getting crowded:
- Waymo (Alphabet) has already begun supervised tests in London, according to Reuters. [5]
- U.K.-based startup Wayve is preparing for driverless trials in 2026, supported by an investment round Reuters described as roughly $1 billion led by SoftBank and Uber. [6]
For Uber investors, the immediate relevance is strategic. Rather than trying to own self-driving hardware, Uber is increasingly positioning itself as the distribution channel—the consumer-facing demand engine that multiple autonomous vehicle developers can “plug into.”
That strategy may sound simple, but it goes to the heart of the market’s biggest fear: if robotaxi technology consolidates into one or two dominant fleet operators, those winners could decide they don’t need Uber’s marketplace at all.
The “underperformance” story: why some investors are calling this a late-2025 opportunity
In investor commentary published today, Seeking Alpha framed Uber’s recent weakness as an “early Christmas gift,” arguing the stock looks undervalued after underperformance—while pointing to continued operating momentum. [7]
The piece highlighted:
- Uber trading at about 14.7x forward earnings (in its calculation). [8]
- Q3 momentum, with trips up 22% and gross bookings up 21%, alongside 20% year-over-year revenue growth and 33% adjusted EBITDA growth. [9]
- The argument that there is still significant “white space,” including a claim that only ~15% of top-market populations use Uber today (as framed by the author). [10]
Whether or not investors agree with the valuation conclusion, the underlying point is hard to ignore: Uber’s operating data has been trending like a scaled platform still widening its user and transaction base.
Uber’s scale is still expanding: 189 million active consumers and 3.5 billion trips in Q3
Uber’s most recent quarterly report remains a key anchor for the bull case going into 2026.
In its Q3 2025 results, Uber reported:
- 189 million Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs), up 17% year over year [11]
- 3.512 billion trips, up 22% year over year [12]
- $49.74 billion in gross bookings, up 21% year over year [13]
- $13.467 billion in revenue, up 20% year over year [14]
- $2.256 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 33% year over year [15]
- $2.230 billion in free cash flow (as defined by the company), up 6% year over year [16]
Uber also reported net income attributable to Uber of $6.626 billion, noting that figure includes a $4.9 billion benefit from a tax valuation release, a reminder that headline earnings can include significant one-time or non-operating items. [17]
This is one reason many analysts and long-term investors emphasize cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, and unit economics (trips, MAPCs, gross bookings) when assessing Uber’s trajectory into 2026.
The 3 critical factors investors can’t ignore in 2026
A widely circulated investor-focused Nasdaq piece (syndicated from The Motley Fool) distilled the 2026 Uber stock debate into three buckets—each still highly relevant today. [18]
1) User growth and engagement: scale is Uber’s core moat
Uber’s “massive user base” is more than a bragging point; it is the leverage behind cross-selling (Mobility → Delivery), subscriptions, and new verticals that can increase frequency. The Nasdaq piece cited 189 million monthly active users at the end of Q3 and emphasized levers like Uber One sign-ups and cross-selling to deepen engagement. [19]
If 2026 becomes a year where consumers tighten discretionary spending, Uber’s ability to keep riders in the ecosystem through bundling, loyalty mechanics, and everyday-use categories could matter as much as raw trip growth.
2) Profitability and operating leverage: Uber is no longer “a cash-burn story”
The same Nasdaq article argued that Uber has evolved from a “money-losing entity into one with sizable and growing profits,” pointing to the company’s 2019 net loss and the subsequent turnaround. [20]
From the market’s perspective, this isn’t just about being profitable—it’s about proving that margins can expand even while Uber invests in product, safety, and (increasingly) automation partnerships.
3) Autonomous vehicles: both the biggest risk and biggest opportunity
This is where today’s Baidu headline matters. The Nasdaq piece framed autonomous vehicles as a dual-edged sword: robotaxis could undermine Uber if major players scale direct-to-consumer networks, but they could also become Uber’s next growth lever if Uber remains the marketplace where autonomous supply meets rider demand. [21]
The market’s job in 2026 will be to decide which side of that equation is becoming more likely.
“Historically cheap”: what Uber’s valuation is signaling right now
MarketWatch summed up the current investor mood bluntly: Uber’s stock is “almost historically cheap,” largely because robotaxis have re-emerged as a front-burner concern. [22]
According to the MarketWatch report:
- Uber was trading around $80 per share at the time of publication [23]
- The stock was valued at roughly 15.5x projected enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA [24]
- Bernstein analysts led by Nikhil Devnani viewed the stock as overly discounted and set a $115 price target (about 44% upside from ~ $80) [25]
- The report cited a projection of 34% annual EBITDA growth [26]
Even without accepting any one analyst’s assumptions, the takeaway is that Uber is being priced like a company whose future take rate and marketplace role could be structurally challenged by autonomy—despite evidence of strong near-term operating performance.
Robotaxis in 2026: existential threat, margin pressure, or a platform tailwind?
Robotaxis aren’t a single “event.” They are a multi-year rollout that will likely vary by geography, regulation, weather, infrastructure, and consumer trust. The key investor question is how value accrues as robotaxis scale.
The bear case: fleets bypass the aggregator
If a dominant autonomous fleet operator can build a consumer brand, manage payments, and achieve high utilization, it may not need Uber. MarketWatch highlighted concerns around Tesla and Waymo specifically. [27]
And capital is pouring into the space: Reuters reported last week that Waymo was discussing fundraising that could value it at $100 billion or more, underlining how aggressively investors are funding autonomy leaders. [28]
The bull case: Uber becomes the “demand router” for autonomous supply
Uber’s counter is partnership scale. MarketWatch noted Uber works with at least 21 AV-related companies and has pilot activity in multiple cities, suggesting Uber wants to be the default marketplace that can flex between human drivers and multiple autonomous suppliers. [29]
Today’s Baidu news fits that model: Uber is effectively trying to make its app the layer where riders request a trip, while the vehicle supply—human-driven or autonomous—can change market by market. [30]
The “messy middle”: hybrid networks may be the practical reality
Reuters emphasized that robotaxis promise cheaper and potentially safer rides, but profitability remains uncertain due to the high cost of autonomous fleets. It also pointed to analyst views that hybrid networks mixing robotaxis and human drivers may be the most viable model to handle peak demand and pricing dynamics. [31]
From an Uber stock perspective, hybrid networks could be a feature—not a bug—because Uber already operates at scale in matching demand with a flexible supply pool.
The risks investors are watching heading into 2026
Uber’s 2026 narrative isn’t only about technology. Several “non-robotaxi” risks are also shaping sentiment.
1) Safety scrutiny and executive changes
Uber’s senior vice president for safety and core services, Gus Fuldner, is set to depart in January, according to reporting carried by Insurance Journal (from Bloomberg). The report also noted Uber continues to face extensive litigation related to passenger safety and that additional trials are expected next year. [32]
Leadership changes don’t automatically imply operational problems—but in a company where trust, safety, and regulatory relationships matter, investors tend to watch these shifts closely.
2) Subscription and consumer-protection litigation around Uber One
The FTC and 21 states (plus D.C.) filed an amended complaint alleging deceptive billing and cancellation practices related to Uber One, including claims about enrollment without consent and difficulty canceling—up to 23 screens and 32 actions in some cases, per the FTC. [33]
Uber has denied the allegations, according to Reuters, and the case will proceed in court. [34]
This matters for 2026 because subscriptions are often viewed as a stabilizer: they can increase frequency, reduce churn, and lift customer lifetime value. Legal uncertainty that touches the subscription funnel can therefore become a valuation overhang.
3) Robotaxi economics could pressure platform margins
Even if Uber succeeds in becoming the “front door” to robotaxis, the economics may change. Autonomous fleet operators will want a meaningful share of trip economics to cover vehicle capex, sensors, maintenance, and remote operations. Reuters explicitly flagged analyst concern that the high cost of AV fleets could pressure margins for platforms like Uber and Lyft. [35]
In other words: robotaxis could increase trip supply and lower prices, but they may also compress take rates—depending on bargaining power.
What to watch in 2026: the signals that could move Uber stock
For readers tracking Uber stock into 2026, the next phase likely comes down to measurable proof points—less hype, more unit economics.
Key signals to monitor:
- Robotaxi rollout milestones
London pilots with Baidu, competitive activity from Waymo, and new-city expansions will be watched as indicators of pace and regulatory readiness. [36] - Marketplace economics
Does Uber maintain pricing power and take rate as autonomy partners scale, or do economics shift toward fleet operators? - Engagement levers
MAPCs, trip frequency, cross-sell between Mobility and Delivery, and the durability of subscription-driven engagement will matter as competition increases. [37] - Profitability and cash flow consistency
Investors will likely focus on adjusted EBITDA growth and free cash flow durability, especially given the “one-time” nature of some reported net income items. [38] - Regulatory and legal outcomes
Any updates on Uber One litigation or safety-related cases could swing sentiment, particularly if remedies affect product flows or costs. [39]
Bottom line for Uber stock into 2026
Uber enters 2026 with a business that is still scaling—189 million active consumers, 3.5 billion quarterly trips, and expanding profitability metrics—yet the stock is being valued as if the company’s role in transportation could be structurally disrupted. [40]
Today’s Baidu robotaxi trial announcement doesn’t “solve” that tension, but it crystallizes the strategy: Uber is betting it can remain the interface customers use, even as the vehicles beneath that interface evolve from human-driven cars to autonomous fleets. [41]
Whether that bet becomes a major upside catalyst—or a margin and competitive challenge—may be the single most important storyline for Uber stock in 2026. [42]
References
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