New York, January 5, 2026, 15:27 ET — Regular session
- Uber shares fall about 2% after Melius cuts the stock to Sell and sets a $73 target
- Analyst flags rising autonomous-vehicle competition as self-driving moves closer to wider deployment
- Focus turns to Uber’s expected Feb. 4 earnings report for updates on margins and autonomy strategy
Uber Technologies, Inc. shares were down 1.9% at $81.30 in afternoon trading on Monday, after Melius Research downgraded the ride-hailing company to “sell” with a $73 price target. “Even with Uber’s position, AV competition is set to rise in 2026 and beyond,” Melius analyst Conor Cunningham wrote, referring to autonomous vehicles, or self-driving cars. 1
The call is landing at the start of a year when investors are trying to gauge how quickly robotaxis move from pilots into broader commercial service. That matters for Uber because self-driving fleets could change who controls pricing power and who keeps the larger share of each trip.
Uber’s core rides business hinges on scale and the “take rate” — the portion of rider spending the company keeps after paying drivers and incentives. If autonomous-vehicle operators push to own more of the economics, Uber’s cut can come under pressure, even if trip volumes rise.
Melius said Uber has tried to position itself as a “demand aggregator” — a platform that matches riders with vehicles — through partnerships and investments, but argued that greater competition could erode returns “whether Uber partners or not.” The firm also warned that a shift in growth expectations, or more standalone expansion announcements from the likes of Waymo and Tesla, could catch investors off guard. 2
Uber has been leaning into alliances to stay central to autonomy without building the full stack itself. In October, Uber said it was working with Nvidia to accelerate robotaxi and autonomous delivery fleets using Nvidia’s AI architecture, with an ambition to scale its autonomous fleet to 100,000 vehicles over time starting in 2027. 3
The company has also built out a roster of autonomy-related deals. Uber said last year it would invest $300 million in EV maker Lucid as part of a plan to integrate more than 20,000 Lucid Gravity SUVs equipped with Nuro’s self-driving technology into a robotaxi rollout expected to begin in a major U.S. city in 2026, Reuters reported. 4
Uber’s decline weighed on sentiment across ride-hailing, with rival Lyft down 2.8%. The drop came even as the broader market held firmer, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF up 0.7% and the Invesco QQQ Trust up 0.8%.
But the timing of robotaxi adoption remains a moving target, shaped by regulation, safety milestones and the economics of operating fleets at scale. Delays would push competitive pressure further out, while a faster-than-expected rollout could compress fees and intensify price competition.
Investors are now looking to Uber’s next earnings report for a clearer read on demand trends, profitability and any changes to its autonomy playbook. Nasdaq’s earnings calendar lists Feb. 4 as the expected reporting date for Uber’s quarterly results. 5
