Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) is ending 2025 at the center of a classic “two-story stock” setup: one storyline is legal and reputational risk around its Uber One subscription; the other is a fast-expanding push into autonomy, AI-driven efficiency, and a broader “local commerce” strategy that stretches well beyond ride-hailing.
As of December 21, 2025 (Sunday), U.S. markets are closed—so the latest available pricing reflects the most recent trading session. Uber shares last traded around $79.31.
Below is what’s driving Uber stock right now, what Wall Street is forecasting, and the key catalysts investors are watching into early 2026.
Uber stock snapshot: why the market’s paying attention now
Uber’s recent stock action has been shaped by a tug-of-war between:
- Headline volatility (regulatory/legal pressure tied to Uber One subscription practices), and
- Longer-horizon upside narratives (robotaxis, applied AI, expanding delivery/retail partnerships, and continued profitability improvements).
That tension is visible in how analysts are discussing valuation: MarketWatch recently described Uber’s valuation as “almost historically cheap,” while asking whether robotaxis could become an existential threat if the market consolidates around a small number of autonomous winners. [1]
The biggest headline risk: FTC and 21 states expand the Uber One lawsuit
The most market-moving U.S. headline in mid-December was the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and a coalition of states escalating their case against Uber regarding Uber One subscription enrollment, billing, promised savings, and cancellation flows.
What regulators allege
On December 15, 2025, the FTC said it—joined by 21 states and the District of Columbia—filed an amended complaint alleging Uber:
- charged consumers for Uber One without consent,
- failed to deliver promised savings (including “$0 delivery fees”), and
- made cancellation unusually difficult (the complaint cites up to 23 screens and 32 actions to cancel). [2]
The FTC also notes allegations that some users were charged before free trials ended. [3]
Uber’s response (and why markets care)
Reuters reported Uber denied the allegations and argued that charges require consent and that cancellations typically take less than 20 seconds in-app. Uber stock fell more than 3% on the news, underscoring how seriously investors are treating the litigation risk. [4]
Why this matters for the stock: even if the ultimate financial penalty is uncertain, the case targets a key strategic engine—Uber One—which Uber has leaned on to increase cross-usage between rides and delivery.
Robotaxis are no longer theoretical: Dallas and Dubai become live testbeds
While the legal headlines create short-term uncertainty, Uber’s autonomy storyline has gotten much more concrete in December.
Dallas: Uber + Avride robotaxi rides are live
Uber announced on December 3, 2025 that riders in Dallas can now be matched with an Avride robotaxi when requesting UberX, Uber Comfort, or Uber Comfort Electric, at no extra cost. The service initially covers 9 square miles (including areas from Downtown to Uptown, Turtle Creek, and Deep Ellum), with plans to expand. [5]
Important operational detail: at launch, an on-board specialist is monitoring behind the wheel, with a stated path toward fully driverless operations later. [6]
Dubai: WeRide robotaxi rides via an “Autonomous” option
On December 12, 2025, Uber and WeRide announced a robotaxi launch in Dubai, in partnership with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA). Riders can book via an “Autonomous” option in the Uber app in select locations across Umm Suqeim and Jumeirah. [7]
The companies said the service is currently operating with an on-board specialist and is intended to lay groundwork for a fully driverless commercial service in early 2026. [8]
Munich is on the roadmap (testing in 2026)
Reuters also notes that Momenta and Uber previously said they would begin robotaxi testing in Munich in 2026, adding another major market to the autonomy pipeline. [9]
Investor takeaway: Uber’s autonomy strategy is increasingly about becoming the platform where autonomous fleets plug in—rather than trying to be the fleet owner.
The competitive reality: Tesla and Waymo keep raising the bar
Robotaxis are also the source of Uber’s most profound long-term strategic uncertainty. Two key datapoints circulating in late 2025:
- The Financial Times reported Waymo was in talks to raise funds at a valuation of more than $100 billion, signaling serious capital formation behind a rival ecosystem. [10]
- Business Insider and other outlets reported Tesla has been testing fully driverless robotaxis (notably in Austin) and highlighted the pace of competitive progress. [11]
This is why “robotaxis” can be both Uber’s upside (new supply type, improved unit economics over time) and a perceived existential risk (disintermediation if a dominant AV operator controls demand and routing).
Uber’s “applied AI” narrative: productivity gains without building the chips
Another December storyline is Uber’s insistence that it benefits from AI in a very specific way: it’s not trying to be an AI infrastructure company, it’s trying to be an “applied AI” operator optimizing real-world logistics.
Business Insider reported CEO Dara Khosrowshahi described AI as turning Uber engineers into “superhumans,” citing tangible benefits across recommendations, pricing, routing, matching, and customer service—while saying Uber is hiring more engineers, not fewer. [12]
For investors, this matters because it frames AI as:
- a margin lever (operational efficiency), and
- a product-quality lever (better matching, better reliability, improved conversion in Eats and delivery).
Fundamentals: Q3 results were strong, and Q4 guidance stayed upbeat
Under the hood—away from the headlines—Uber’s operating metrics in 2025 have continued to show scale and improving profitability.
Q3 2025 highlights (reported November 4, 2025)
Uber reported for Q3 2025:
- Trips: 3.5 billion (+22% YoY)
- Gross Bookings: $49.7B (+21% YoY)
- Revenue: $13.5B (+20% YoY)
- Income from operations: ~$1.1B
- Adjusted EBITDA: ~$2.3B (+33% YoY)
- Free cash flow: ~$2.2B
- Unrestricted cash / equivalents / short-term investments: ~$9.1B [13]
Uber also said it intended to redeem $1.2B of convertible notes due December 2025 in Q4 2025. [14]
Q4 2025 outlook (as guided by Uber)
Uber guided for Q4 2025:
- Gross Bookings: $52.25B to $53.75B
- Adjusted EBITDA: $2.41B to $2.51B [15]
Reuters added context that Q3 operating profit was hit by legal and regulatory costs, which weighed on market reaction at the time. [16]
Expansion beyond rides: delivery automation, retail, and merchant logistics
Uber’s 2025 investment case increasingly depends on whether it can become a broader commerce-and-logistics platform, not “just” a ride-hailing app.
Autonomous delivery robots in the UK (Starship partnership)
Reuters reported Uber partnered with Starship Technologies to launch autonomous robot deliveries in the UK starting December 2025, beginning in the Leeds and Sheffield areas, with expansion plans into more European markets in 2026. [17]
Shopify integration: Uber Direct plugs into checkout
Uber announced an integration making Uber Direct available to Shopify Plus merchants across the U.S., Canada, and France—aimed at enabling same-day and on-demand delivery directly from merchant checkout flows. [18]
Grocery and retail footprint keeps growing
Uber also announced new regional retail additions (including Stater Bros., Kowalski’s, and Big Red Liquors) as part of a broader 2025 push it said added 1,000+ retailers globally and 50,000+ U.S. retail locations. [19]
M&A watch: Uber linked to a potential Getir Food deal in Turkey
One of the most material corporate developments on the radar is Uber’s reported interest in expanding its position in Turkey.
Reuters reported on November 24, 2025 that Uber had reached agreement on key elements of a potential deal to acquire Getir Food from Mubadala, and the parties had sought approval from Turkey’s Competition Board—while noting the sale price was unclear and a final deal might not happen. [20]
Reuters also highlighted that Uber has been expanding in Turkey and previously announced a $700 million acquisition of a majority stake in Trendyol GO earlier in 2025. [21]
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees Uber stock going next
Despite December’s legal headlines, analyst price targets still imply meaningful upside—though estimates vary depending on the data provider and which analysts are included.
Consensus targets cluster around the low $110s (with a wide range)
- MarketBeat’s consensus showed an average target around $108 (with a range that includes targets down into the high $70s and up into the $130s). [22]
- Finviz showed a low target of $78, an average around $112, and a high of $150, alongside a “Strong Buy” consensus rating (as displayed on its snapshot). [23]
- TipRanks displayed an average target around $117, with high targets also reaching $150 (based on its aggregated analyst view). [24]
Named calls and themes investors are citing
- Nasdaq reported Arete upgraded Uber to Buy with a $125 target, pointing to robotaxi momentum as part of the thesis. [25]
- MarketWatch cited Bernstein’s view that Uber is overly discounted, with a $115 target, while emphasizing the strategic robotaxi debate. [26]
- Investopedia flagged Uber as part of a Jefferies “highest conviction” list with a $120 price target, highlighting continued growth and execution. [27]
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move Uber stock into 2026
Uber’s near-term stock direction likely depends less on day-to-day ride demand (which has been robust) and more on whether it can keep the “platform premium” intact while navigating legal and autonomy transitions.
1) Uber One litigation trajectory
The lawsuit’s next milestones—court scheduling, motions, and any changes Uber makes to enrollment/cancellation UX—could materially shift investor sentiment around regulatory risk. [28]
2) Robotaxi scaling and unit economics
Dallas and Dubai are “proof of product,” but the market will want evidence of:
- expansion of operating areas,
- improving safety metrics,
- lower per-trip costs over time,
- and whether Uber can maintain demand-side control in a world where fleet operators have leverage. [29]
3) Delivery and merchant logistics monetization
Shopify Plus integration, robot delivery pilots, and continued retail growth are all steps toward diversifying revenue streams and improving take-rate opportunities. [30]
4) Deal/newsflow in Turkey
Any definitive deal (or no-deal outcome) regarding Getir Food—and broader Turkey strategy execution—could become a meaningful narrative driver. [31]
Bottom line for December 21, 2025
Uber stock is being priced like a company with real execution and real profits—but also real platform risk. The FTC-led Uber One case is a short-term overhang with potentially high reputational stakes, while robotaxi rollouts in Dallas and Dubai make Uber’s autonomy strategy feel less like a slide deck and more like a product roadmap already shipping.
Analysts, broadly, still see upside from current levels, with many targets clustering above $100 and a high-end view reaching $150—yet the wide spread in targets is the market telling you something important: investors aren’t arguing about whether Uber is big. They’re arguing about what kind of “big” it becomes in a robotaxi future. [32]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.ftc.gov, 3. www.ftc.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. investor.uber.com, 6. investor.uber.com, 7. investor.uber.com, 8. investor.uber.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.ft.com, 11. www.businessinsider.com, 12. www.businessinsider.com, 13. investor.uber.com, 14. investor.uber.com, 15. investor.uber.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.uber.com, 19. www.prnewswire.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.ftc.gov, 29. investor.uber.com, 30. www.uber.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketwatch.com
