Monday (15 December 2025) brings a lighter UK data slate than the rest of the week — but it’s far from irrelevant. With investors bracing for UK labour market figures (Tuesday), UK inflation (Wednesday), and the Bank of England (Thursday), even second-tier releases can shape early-week positioning in sterling (GBP), gilts, and UK rate expectations. [1]
The backdrop is tense: the UK economy stumbled in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, with output unexpectedly soft, while households and businesses have shown signs of caution heading into year-end. [2]
Below is what’s on the UK economic calendar tomorrow, why it matters, and how it fits into the broader UK macro narrative dominating headlines and analyst notes in the past several days.
UK economic calendar: Monday, 15 December 2025 (UK time, GMT)
00:01 — Rightmove House Price Index (HPI), MoM (Dec reading)
Rightmove’s monthly index tracks asking-price changes for homes listed for sale and is often treated as an early pulse check for UK housing sentiment.
- Previous (Nov): -1.8% m/m [3]
What to watch:
- A smaller decline (or a surprise rise) can support the “housing stabilisation” story — potentially trimming the most aggressive near-term rate-cut expectations at the margin.
- A larger fall reinforces the idea that affordability and confidence remain constrained, especially relevant ahead of the BoE decision.
It’s worth keeping expectations realistic: asking prices can be volatile, and the market impact is usually modest unless the move is extreme.
00:01 — Rightmove House Prices, YoY (Dec reading)
The year-on-year measure adds context to the monthly figure by showing whether the housing market is gaining or losing momentum over time.
- Previous (Nov): -0.5% y/y [4]
Why it matters tomorrow:
- UK housing has been a recurring pressure point in recent analysis, particularly as policy and tax headlines have collided with already-stretched affordability.
09:30 — S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
This is a closely followed, high-frequency read on household confidence, tracking themes such as financial wellbeing, labour market perceptions, spending and savings attitudes.
- S&P Global’s release schedule flags the UK Consumer Sentiment Index for 15 December. [5]
- The most recently reported reading showed the index at 45.2 in November, down from 47.4 in October (below 50 typically signals deterioration rather than improvement). [6]
What to watch:
- A rebound would hint that post-budget uncertainty is easing and that households may be less defensive heading into the Christmas period.
- Further weakness would align with the recent stream of soft consumer and retail signals — a key macro theme as markets weigh how quickly the BoE can ease policy.
Why these “smaller” releases matter this week
Monday’s UK releases land right before a dense run of top-tier UK macro events that can move the pound and rates sharply in a short window. S&P Global’s week-ahead diary highlights the main sequence: labour market (Tue), inflation (Wed), BoE decision (Thu), retail sales (Fri). [7]
That sequencing matters because markets are currently treating Thursday’s BoE meeting as a potential pivot point.
The big macro expectation: a December BoE rate cut
A Reuters poll of economists points to the BoE cutting Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% on 18 December 2025, with many economists also expecting another cut in Q1 2026. [8]
At the same time, Reuters analysis has noted markets pricing a very high probability of a cut — while also warning that the inflation print midweek could still influence expectations at the margin. [9]
In that environment, even “soft signal” indicators like consumer sentiment can matter because they shape the narrative around:
- whether weak growth is bleeding into demand, and
- how confident the BoE can be that inflation pressure is cooling sustainably.
The latest UK macro headlines shaping forecasts going into Monday
Growth: the economy has lost momentum
Recent official data showed the UK economy contracted unexpectedly over the three months to October, and year-on-year growth was reported at 1.1%, below the 1.4% economists forecast in that Reuters report. [10]
That weaker growth pulse is a key reason analysts have been increasingly comfortable projecting easier monetary policy into year-end.
Inflation: expectations have eased, but remain above target
The Bank of England’s inflation attitudes survey showed the public’s median one-year inflation expectation ticked down to 3.5% (from 3.6%), while longer-term expectations also edged lower — still well above the BoE’s 2% target. [11]
This matters for Monday because consumer sentiment and inflation expectations often move together: falling inflation anxiety can improve confidence — but only if households also feel secure on jobs and incomes.
Labour market and hiring: signs of cooling demand for workers
A Reuters report on the UK jobs market described further cooling in November based on survey evidence, alongside references to official data showing the jobless rate had reached 5.0% (third quarter). [12]
Meanwhile, separate reporting has highlighted that UK firms have been signalling caution on staffing, reinforcing the case that wage and services inflation pressures could cool further over time. [13]
Consumers and retail: spending signals have softened
A run of recent reporting has pointed to consumer restraint:
- Reuters flagged disappointing November consumer spending signals across surveys, including a 1.1% y/y fall in Barclays card spending and 1.4% y/y growth in BRC data (slower than recent months). [14]
- The Financial Times similarly highlighted the Barclays measure as the steepest annual decline since 2021. [15]
That’s directly relevant for Monday’s S&P consumer sentiment release: markets will look for confirmation of whether households are regaining confidence or staying defensive.
Housing: post-budget uncertainty and affordability pressures remain in the spotlight
A Reuters report citing a Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey described a slowdown in the UK housing market after the tax-raising budget, including a notable deterioration in new buyer enquiries. [16]
That context increases the sensitivity to Monday’s Rightmove update — even if the index isn’t usually a top-tier mover.
A practical read-through for GBP, gilts, and UK rate expectations
1) If Rightmove stabilises, it can reduce “growth scare” intensity — slightly
A less negative housing print can support the idea that lower rates (or expectations of lower rates) are easing the squeeze. That can:
- support UK growth expectations at the margin,
- nudge gilt yields upward modestly (less urgency to cut), and
- offer mild support to GBP.
But it usually won’t override what matters most this week: labour, CPI, and the BoE. [17]
2) If consumer sentiment rebounds, markets will ask: is post-budget uncertainty fading?
If CSI rises meaningfully from the latest reported 45.2 reading, markets may interpret it as:
- households feeling more secure, or
- inflation pressure anxiety easing enough to lift “big purchase” willingness.
That can matter most in the lead-up to Friday’s retail sales and next week’s consumer indicators. [18]
3) If consumer sentiment weakens again, it reinforces the easing case into the BoE meeting
A softer CSI would fit neatly with:
- the weaker growth pulse into October, [19]
- evidence of subdued spending, [20]
- and the strong market and economist leaning toward a BoE cut this week. [21]
What comes next after Monday: the UK’s main market-moving events this week
Even though this article focuses on Monday 15 December, the reality for UK markets is that Monday is the runway.
S&P Global’s week-ahead schedule highlights the UK’s key risk events:
- Tuesday, 16 Dec: UK Labour Market Report + S&P Global Flash PMI [22]
The ONS confirms the UK labour market release timing for 16 December 2025 at 7:00am. [23] - Wednesday, 17 Dec: UK Inflation (Nov) [24]
This is the report markets will scrutinise most closely for whether services inflation and core pressures are cooling convincingly. - Thursday, 18 Dec: BoE Interest Rate Decision [25]
A Reuters poll points to a 3.75% decision as the base case. [26] - Friday, 19 Dec: UK Retail Sales (Nov) [27]
A crucial “hard data” check against the softer spending signals seen in survey and card data. [28]
Bottom line for Monday, 15 December 2025
The UK economic calendar tomorrow is not packed, but it is strategically timed. The combination of:
will help set the tone for positioning ahead of a week where the main market drivers are expected to be jobs, inflation, and the Bank of England. [31]
References
1. www.spglobal.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. uk.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.pmi.spglobal.com, 6. www.retailsector.co.uk, 7. www.spglobal.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.spglobal.com, 18. www.retailsector.co.uk, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.spglobal.com, 23. www.ons.gov.uk, 24. www.spglobal.com, 25. www.spglobal.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.spglobal.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. uk.investing.com, 30. www.pmi.spglobal.com, 31. www.spglobal.com
