UK Economic Calendar Today – 9 December 2025: Soft BRC Retail Sales, Housing in Focus as BoE Faces MPs

The UK enters a pivotal week for monetary policy with a relatively light but important domestic economic calendar today, 9 December 2025. The headline is a softer-than-expected BRC Retail Sales Monitor for November, set against a cooling but not collapsing housing market and rising anticipation of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut next week.

Below is a full guide to today’s UK economic diary, what has already been published, what’s still to come, and how markets are reading it.

Key takeaways for 9 December 2025

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov): Like‑for‑like sales rose just 1.2% year-on-year, the weakest growth in six months and well below expectations around 2½%. ^[1]
Consumer behaviour: Pre‑Budget nerves and underwhelming Black Friday traffic weighed on spending, especially in non‑food. ^[2]
Housing & credit: The BoE/FCA Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (MLAR), Q3 2025 are being released today, offering a fresh read on mortgage lending activity. ^[3]
BoE under scrutiny: This afternoon, Dave Ramsden, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingraappear before the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) to give evidence on the November Monetary Policy Report, a session markets hope will clarify the chances of a rate cut on 18 December. ^[4]
Official statistics at 09:30: The ONS publishes four releases – including a major dataset on skills demand in online job adverts and the UK Tourism Satellite Account – important for structural analysis of the UK economy even if they are not big market movers. ^[5]

1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Black Friday fizzles, shoppers stay cautious

Headline numbers

The BRC – KPMG Retail Sales Monitor for November, released overnight, shows that UK retail sales grew 1.2% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis, the slowest pace in six months. ^[6]

Market consensus had looked for growth in the mid‑2% range, so the print is clearly soft relative to expectations. Different calendar providers put the forecast between 2.4% and 2.6%, meaning the outturn undershot by around 1 percentage point. ^[7]

What’s happening under the surface?

According to Trading Economics’ write‑up of the release: ^[8]

Food sales growth slowed to 3.0% (from 3.5% in October), though that is still stronger than the 2.2% increase recorded in November 2024.
Non‑food sales barely grew, up just 0.1% for a second consecutive month – but that’s a sharp improvement on the 7.9% annual decline seen a year earlier.
The BRC notes that online non‑food sales reached their highest share since 2022, underlining the shift towards e‑commerce.

BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson summed up the mood bluntly: “Pre-budget jitters among shoppers meant the month of Black Friday did not deliver as strongly as retailers had hoped or the economy needed.” ^[9]

That comment aligns with previous BRC analysis showing that October’s retail sales had already weakened as households delayed discretionary purchases ahead of both Black Friday and the Autumn Budget. ^[10]

How weak is this in context?

November’s 1.2% year‑on‑year growth compares with 1.5% in October, continuing a gradual slowdown since late summer. ^[11]
With CPI inflation running at 3.6% in October 2025, the latest BRC figures imply that in real terms retail volumes are likely flat or slightly negative once price effects are stripped out. ^[12]

That reinforces the picture of a consumer squeezed by high living costs, tight budgets and fiscal uncertainty, even as headline inflation steadily retreats from its post‑pandemic peaks.

2. What today’s retail data means for inflation and the December BoE decision

The BRC release lands at a crucial moment: markets are almost fully priced for a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE’s 18 December meeting, taking Bank Rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. ^[13]

Growth vs inflation trade‑off

The UK Finance Monthly Economic Review (December 2025) notes that: ^[14]

GDP grew just 0.1% in Q3 2025, with services output particularly subdued.
Production output fell 0.5%, weighed down by a sharp drop in automotive manufacturing.
Inflation appears past its peak, with October’s fall in CPI driven by slower energy price increases and a moderation in services inflation.

Against that backdrop, today’s softer BRC numbers strengthen the case that demand is not overheating and that price pressures in discretionary retail are easing.

At the same time, the labour market remains relatively tight, with unemployment around 5.0% and wage growth at 4.8% in the latest figures, keeping underlying inflation risks alive. ^[15]

How are analysts reading the BoE’s next move?

A range of recent forecasts – summarised by the HomeOwners Alliance and other commentators – point to: ^[16]

A 90% implied market probability of a December cut.
Expectations that Bank Rate will drift towards 3.0–3.75% during 2026, with further modest easing to follow if inflation continues to fall.
Average two‑year fixed mortgage rates already edging below 3.6% for the best deals, reflecting the improving rates outlook.

Most economists still expect only gradual easing, not a rapid return to pre‑2021 ultra‑low rates. The BRC data supports the view that the BoE has room to cut without re‑igniting inflation, but it also hints at fragile consumer confidenceahead of Christmas.

3. Housing and mortgage focus: MLAR Q3 2025 and a cooling but orderly market

Today’s MLAR release

The Bank of England’s Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (MLAR), Q3 2025 are officially published today at 09:30. ^[17]

This quarterly release aggregates detailed data from around 340 regulated mortgage lenders and administrators, covering:

Gross mortgage advances
New lending by borrower type (first‑time buyers, movers, buy‑to‑let)
Arrears, possessions and loan‑to‑income ratios

The Q3 2025 dataset has been flagged for weeks as a key update by market analysts and housing commentators. ^[18]

What we already know going into the numbers

Even before today’s MLAR tables, a cluster of recent releases paints a consistent picture of a housing market that is softer but stabilising:

House prices:
- Nationwide reports prices up 1.8% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 2.4% the month before. ^[19]
- Halifax shows a smaller 0.7% annual rise, with prices flat month‑on‑month in November. ^[20]
- Rightmove’s November House Price Index recorded a 1.8% monthly fall in asking prices, the largest November drop since 2012, as sellers cut prices in anticipation of tax changes in the Autumn Budget. ^[21]
Mortgage approvals and rates:
- The BoE reported 65,018 mortgage approvals for house purchase in October 2025, 1.0% lower than September and 4.9% below a year earlier – but only around 2% below the pre‑pandemic average, suggesting activity is subdued rather than frozen. ^[22]
- Quoted mortgage rates continue to ease: the average two‑year fixed rate at 75% LTV fell to 4.06% in November, from 4.20% the previous month. Effective rates on new advances edged down to 4.18%. ^[23]
Macro context:
- The House of Commons Library’s “Housing market: Economic indicators” briefing highlights that UK House Price Index data show prices 2.6% higher in September 2025 than a year before, but with a 0.3% monthly fall, confirming that momentum has slowed.
- Mortgage approvals in September were up 2% on August and broadly unchanged on a year earlier, again pointing to a market that is adjusting rather than collapsing. ^[24]

Taken together, today’s MLAR release is likely to confirm tight but improving affordability, modestly cooling prices and a mortgage market that is re‑balancing after the rate shock of 2022–23, rather than heading into a credit crunch.

4. Treasury Select Committee grilling: BoE communication under the microscope

Who’s in the spotlight?

At 2:15pm today, the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) will question: ^[25]

Sir Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor (Markets and Banking)
Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor (Monetary Policy)
Catherine L. Mann, MPC member
Swati Dhingra, MPC member

The session focuses on the November Monetary Policy Report and comes just nine days before the December policy decision, making it one of the last major communication set‑pieces before the vote.

The Bank of England notes that today’s committee appearance will also cover annual reports from Mann and Ramsden, giving MPs a chance to probe their individual views on inflation, growth and financial stability. ^[26]

Why markets care

A “Week Ahead” note from Daily Business, dated 8 December, points out that: ^[27]

Markets have “all but priced in” a cut in Bank Rate to 3.75% on 18 December.
Economists at Oxford Economics warn that the decision could still be “tighter than analysts assume”, given the split on the MPC and lingering concerns about inflation.

Recent commentary underscores that split:

Catherine Mann has repeatedly flagged upside risks to inflation expectations and argued that the BoE should be cautious about cutting too quickly. ^[28]
Swati Dhingra has emphasised the downside risks to growth from global trade tensions and tariffs, arguing in recent speeches that weaker external demand could reinforce disinflationary forces in the UK. ^[29]

Today’s hearing therefore offers traders and economists an opportunity to:

Judge how confident MPC members are that inflation is on track to hit the 2% target.
Assess whether dovish voices (such as Dhingra) or hawkish ones (such as Mann) are gaining ground after the narrow 5–4 vote to hold rates at 4% on 6 November. ^[30]

Any hints on:

How they read today’s BRC retail sales data,
The latest house price and mortgage indicators, and
The government’s Budget and OBR forecasts,

will feed directly into expectations for December and early‑2026 rate moves.

5. Today’s ONS releases: skills, tourism and crime statistics

At 09:30am, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes four significant – though not usually market‑moving – datasets: ^[31]

Skills, competencies and other job requirements from online job adverts, UK: January 2017 to September 2025
- Uses text from millions of online job adverts to track demand for skills and competencies across occupations and sectors.
- The release due today provides updated data to September 2025, giving policymakers insight into where skill shortages or mismatches might be emerging.
The UK Tourism Satellite Account (UK‑TSA): 2023
- Measures the economic contribution of tourism, including its share of GDP, employment and exports.
- The 2023 results will be watched by regions heavily reliant on tourism and by analysts assessing the durability of the post‑pandemic recovery in travel.
Crime Severity Score (CSS)
- Provides a weighted index of crime, capturing not just volumes but the relative harm of different offences, broken down by police force area and local authority.
- While primarily of interest to policymakers and local authorities, it also feeds into broader discussions of social stability and public‑sector resource allocation.
Sexual orientation, UK: 2024
- Offers detailed estimates of the LGBT+ population, based on survey and administrative data.
- Not directly linked to short‑run macro performance, but important for understanding demographic change, labour market participation and equality outcomes.

For traders, these releases are more relevant as background for medium‑term policy debates (skills strategy, regional development, tourism support) than as immediate triggers for FX or gilt moves. But they contribute to the broader story of a UK economy undergoing structural adjustment after Brexit, the pandemic, and the inflation shock.

6. How global factors tie into today’s UK calendar

Today’s UK data and events are unfolding against a busy global monetary policy backdrop:

The US Federal Reserve begins its two‑day policy meeting later today, with markets largely priced for another rate cut and focused on how far and fast the Fed intends to ease in 2026. Recent coverage notes that risk assets have been jittery ahead of the announcement. ^[32]
Other major central banks, including those in Australia, Canada, Switzerland and the euro area, are also in action this week, with a global trend towards lower policy rates – 2025 has already seen more than 100 rate cuts globally versus only a couple dozen hikes. ^[33]

For the UK, this global easing bias reinforces the case for the BoE to avoid being an outlier – especially now that domestic indicators, from retail sales to house prices, are pointing towards slower demand and easing inflation, not overheating.

7. What to watch next (and how to trade today’s data)

For FX and rates traders

Sterling (GBP) may soften if markets read the BRC data and today’s TSC hearing as reinforcing the case for a December rate cut and a more dovish path for 2026.
Gilt yields at the front end of the curve are already pricing in easing; any unexpectedly hawkish comments from Mann or Ramsden could trigger a modest repricing higher.

For housing and mortgage watchers

Scrutinise the Q3 MLAR tables for:
- Changes in high loan‑to‑income (LTI) lending, which the BoE flagged as rising in its December Financial Stability Report. ^[34]
- Trends in arrears and possessions, a key gauge of household stress as fixed‑rate deals roll off.
Combine today’s release with Nationwide, Halifax and Rightmove data to judge whether the housing market is achieving a soft landing or at risk of a sharper correction. ^[35]

For businesses and policymakers

Use the ONS skills and job‑requirements release to understand where skill mismatches are emerging – crucial for shaping training budgets, apprenticeship schemes and regional policy. ^[36]
The Tourism Satellite Account and Crime Severity Score will inform local growth and public‑service planning, with knock‑on implications for infrastructure, policing and urban investment.

The bottom line

Today’s UK economic calendar may not bring blockbuster GDP or CPI prints, but it is quietly important:

The BRC Retail Sales Monitor signals that consumers are cautious, particularly around big‑ticket discretionary spending, despite lower inflation.
The housing and mortgage data scheduled for today – and the broader context of cooling house prices and easing mortgage rates – suggest a market that is adjusting, not collapsing.
This afternoon’s Treasury Select Committee session with BoE policymakers is the key event to watch, offering a live test of just how ready the MPC is to pull the trigger on a December rate cut.

Together, these releases and hearings will shape the narrative heading into next week’s Monetary Policy Committee decision on 18 December, when markets expect the BoE to join the global shift towards lower interest rates.