London, January 15, 2026, 09:46 GMT
- Official figures revealed UK GDP grew by 0.3% in November compared to October
- Output in the past three months crept higher, driven by a boost in services and a surge in manufacturing
- Investors assessed the implications of the surprise increase for potential Bank of England rate cuts
Britain’s economy expanded by 0.3% in November compared to October, official data revealed on Thursday, driven in part by a bounce back in car manufacturing. GDP, which tracks the total output of goods and services, had dipped 0.1% in October, while September’s figure was revised slightly higher to a 0.1% increase. Looking at the three months through November, GDP edged up 0.1%, with services climbing 0.2% and construction sliding 1.1%. November alone saw services rise 0.3%, production jump 1.1%, and construction drop 1.3%. (Office for National Statistics)
The stronger-than-expected data caught attention amid ongoing speculation about the timing of the Bank of England’s next rate cut. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted a modest 0.1% increase in November. Sterling jumped briefly after the numbers came out, Reuters noted, even as markets still price in two quarter-point (0.25 percentage point) rate cuts this year. Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja suggested the economy might “outpace forecasts in early 2026,” as uncertainty around the budget fades. (Reuters)
Business groups offered a restrained take, saying the recent uptick doesn’t shift the broader investment outlook. Stuart Morrison, research manager at the British Chambers of Commerce, noted firms remain “still cautious about investing and recruiting,” adding that “growth will stay limited for the foreseeable,” even with the stronger-than-expected monthly figures. (British Chambers of Commerce)
The release also sparked debate over whether the late-November budget dampened activity going into winter. Liz McKeown, ONS economic statistics director, noted: “The economy grew slightly in the latest three months.” KPMG UK chief economist Yael Selfin highlighted “tentative signs of a pick-up in household spending,” despite some cooling in consumer-facing sectors. (Sky News)
The data revealed a familiar divide: services, which dominate the economy, pushed ahead, while construction continued to falter. After slipping in October, services bounced back, with industrial production driving most of November’s gains, boosted by a strong surge in motor vehicle output.
Jaguar Land Rover’s production restart played a major role after a cyberattack earlier this year hit the carmaker and some of its suppliers. The initial shock has eased, yet its impact lingered heading into the budget, reflected in the uneven monthly figures.
Economists at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast 1.4% growth for 2025, according to data highlighted by the Guardian. (The Guardian)
GDP figures often shift due to one-off factors — a factory coming back online, a delayed project — and the ONS warns early estimates frequently get revised as new data rolls in. The September revision served as a reminder that recent trends can appear quite different just a month after initial release.
But risks remain. Construction has registered another monthly decline, with the three-month figure falling to its lowest level since early 2023. That poses a challenge for a government banking on investment and building to drive growth. If manufacturing’s bounce is short-lived and services weaken once more, the case for sustained growth — and any rapid boost in living standards — becomes much tougher to sustain.
Investors and policymakers now face the question: will November’s rally evolve into sustained gains, or slip back into the UK’s familiar cycle of short-lived spikes followed by stagnation?
