United Airlines Stock (UAL) in Focus: Citi Bullish Call, Institutional Buying and 2026 ‘Supermajors’ Outlook

Updated: December 6, 2025 – All figures in USD unless stated otherwise.

UAL stock today: trading near the top of its 52‑week range

United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is back in the spotlight on December 6, 2025. The stock is trading around $104.95 in today’s session, near the upper end of its 52‑week range of roughly $52 to $116, with intraday moves between about $103 and $106 and volume above 6.3 million shares. ^[1]

A separate trading recap notes that United closed December 5 with a 0.21% gain and is up about 9.4% year-to-date, while still showing considerable volatility—about 26 daily moves greater than 5% in the past year. ^[2]

On fundamentals, UAL currently trades on:

Market cap: ≈ $34 billion
Trailing P/E: ~10.5
PEG ratio: ~0.9–1.0
Beta: ~1.3–1.4 (higher than the market, consistent with cyclical airlines)
Leverage: debt‑to‑equity around 1.45, with current ratio ≈0.67 and quick ratio ≈0.61, underlining a capital‑intensive, highly leveraged balance sheet. ^[3]

Those metrics place United as a relatively low‑multiple, high‑beta play on global air travel with meaningful balance‑sheet risk attached.

Fresh bullish calls: Citi and Wall Street lean positive on UAL

Citi’s “Supermajors Super‑Cycle” and new UAL rating

This week’s biggest sentiment driver is Citi’s renewed bullish stance on U.S. network carriers, including United:

On December 4, Citi analyst John Godyninitiated coverage of UAL with a Buy rating and a $132 price target, arguing that the setup is favorable for an “elongated mid‑cycle” starting in 2026, with the large airlines offering the best risk/reward. ^[4]
In a separate sector note on December 5, Citi described a coming “Supermajors Super‑Cycle” for U.S. airlines, naming American, Delta and United as “supermajors” that have built business models and hub positions competitors can’t easily replicate. The bank points to:
- Capacity cuts into late 2025 / early 2026,
- bankruptcies that reduce industry supply,
- temporarily depressed demand that could rebound, and
- a recovery in high‑margin corporate travel,
  as reasons margins and RASM (revenue per available seat mile) could inflect higher from 1H26 onward. ^[5]

In short, Citi is telling clients that the big three network carriers—United among them—are structurally better positioned than low‑cost rivals for the next phase of the cycle.

Consensus price targets: clustered around the mid‑$120s

Across major data providers, 12‑month price targets for UAL cluster in the mid‑$120s, implying roughly ~20–25% upside from current levels:

MarketBeat: Average target $126.15 from 14 analysts (range $88–$156), implying about 20% upside from around $105. Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.” ^[6]
StockAnalysis: Average target $127.36 from 11 analysts, suggesting ~21% upside, with a “Strong Buy” consensus. ^[7]
TipRanks: 14 analysts over the past three months show an average target of $129.62 (range $115–$156), implying roughly 27% upside from a last cited price near $102, and a “Strong Buy” consensus (13 Buy, 1 Hold). ^[8]
TickerNerd: Surveying 31 Wall Street analysts, median target $125 (range $62–$156), with the stock “currently trading at about $104.95,” implying ~19% upside and an overall Strong Buy tilt (21 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell). ^[9]
Barchart: For the 2025 fiscal year, analysts expect adjusted EPS around $10.72 (slightly above last year) and collectively rate the stock “Strong Buy” (17 Strong Buy, 2 Moderate Buy, 2 Hold). ^[10]

Longer‑horizon fundamental models are even more optimistic—but also more speculative. A two‑stage discounted cash‑flow model published via Simply Wall St estimates “intrinsic value” around $206 per share, far above the current price, though such DCF outputs are highly sensitive to assumptions. ^[11]

Another Simply Wall St narrative tied to United’s modernization strategy projects revenue of about $67.6 billion and earnings of roughly $4.2 billion by 2028, implying ~5.2% annual revenue growth and a ~$0.9 billion uplift in earnings versus today. That framework yields a fair value estimate near $122.90, about 13% above the current price, and explicitly flags United’s heavy, debt‑funded investments as a key risk. ^[12]

Taken together, Wall Street’s 12‑month view is broadly bullish but not unanimous. Most analysts see double‑digit upside if the airline cycle normalizes in 2026, but the range of outcomes—targets from the low $60s to the mid‑$150s—underscores how sensitive UAL is to macro conditions, fuel, and execution.

Institutional money: big funds build (and trim) UAL positions

Fresh 13F filings highlight active institutional positioning in United Airlines:

Invesco Ltd. increased its stake by 2.9% in Q2 2025 to about 4.8 million shares, or roughly 1.48% of the company, valued near $382 million at the time of the filing. ^[13]
Capula Management Ltd. disclosed a new position of 23,978 shares, worth about $1.9 million, alongside large increases from investors such as Alyeska Investment Group, AQR, Assetmark and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec. ^[14]
A MarketBeat summary notes that, taken together, institutional investors and hedge funds now own about 69.7% of UAL’s float, signalling strong “big money” involvement. ^[15]

Not all flows are one‑way. For example, HSBC cut its UAL stake by about 9.6% in Q2, still holding roughly 839,000 shares worth around $66.8 million, or about 0.26% of the company. ^[16]

Net‑net, the latest data paints United as a heavily institutionally owned, actively traded cyclical, where shifts in macro views and airline cycle expectations are quickly reflected in fund positioning.

Earnings and operations: Q3 beat, strong Q4 guidance and brand‑loyal customers

Q3 2025: profit beat, modest revenue miss

On October 15–16, 2025, United reported third‑quarter 2025 results that were generally seen as solid:

Diluted EPS: $2.90
Adjusted EPS: $2.78, above both guidance ($2.25–$2.75) and consensus (~$2.64–$2.67). ^[17]
Total operating revenue:$15.2 billion, up 2.6% year‑on‑year, though slightly below analyst expectations (~$15.3 billion). ^[18]
Pre‑tax earnings: about $1.3 billion, equating to an 8.2% pre‑tax margin, with adjusted pre‑tax margin near 8.0%. ^[19]

Revenue mix highlights the “de‑commoditization” strategy management keeps talking about:

Premium cabin revenue up ~6% year‑on‑year,
Basic Economy revenue up ~4%,
Cargo revenue up ~3%, and
Loyalty revenue up about 9%. ^[20]

Operationally, United grew capacity (~available seat miles) 7.2% year‑over‑year, with unit revenue (TRASM) down about 4.3% and load factor roughly 83.3%, slightly lower than a year ago as capacity outpaced traffic growth. ^[21]

Despite the profit beat, the stock initially sold off in after‑hours trading after the release, reflecting concerns around revenue softness and unit revenue pressure. ^[22]

Q4 2025 outlook: potentially record revenue

United’s guidance and subsequent analyst updates set the tone for the coming quarter:

Management guided Q4 2025 adjusted EPS to a range of $3.00–$3.50, signalling confidence and above the then‑current consensus of about $2.67. ^[23]
A recent MarketBeat and Zacks roundup notes that analysts now expect Q4 EPS around $3.15 and revenue roughly $15.5 billion, up about 6% year‑on‑year. ^[24]
United’s own press release says it expects Q4 2025 to deliver the highest total operating revenue for any quarter in the company’s history, powered by brand‑loyal customers and recovering demand. ^[25]

For the full year 2025, consensus forecasts call for EPS around $10.7–$13 per share (depending on source) and revenue near $59–60 billion, modestly above 2024. ^[26]

Brand and customer‑experience investments

Management is leaning hard into a “customer experience as moat” narrative. In its Q3 announcement, United highlighted:

Over $1 billion of customer‑facing investments in 2025, with more than $1 billion planned again in 2026.
Upgrades such as seatback screens, extra legroom options, United Polaris lie‑flat seats, and the rollout of SpaceX’s Starlink high‑speed Wi‑Fi across the fleet by 2027. ^[27]
More than half of the narrowbody fleet now features United’s “signature” interior, contributing to a 15‑point gain in customer satisfaction with inflight entertainment since Q3 2022. ^[28]
Record operational performance: lowest Q3 cancellation rate in company history, carrying more than 48 million customers in the quarter with around 2,940 mainline flights and 427,000 passengers per day. ^[29]

CEO Scott Kirby has repeatedly argued that these investments are creating a base of “brand‑loyal customers” whose preference for United’s product insulates revenue in choppy macro conditions. ^[30]

Distribution and tech: Travelport partnership aims to boost high‑margin sales

One of the key strategic developments this week is United’s new, multi‑year partnership with Travelport, a global travel‑technology and distribution platform:

United and Travelport announced a long‑term strategic relationship designed to modernize airline retailing, with Travelport gaining early access to United’s New Distribution Capability (NDC) roadmap and co‑developing new merchandising tools for agencies and corporate buyers. ^[31]
The collaboration will roll out in phases starting in early 2026, with additional capabilities added throughout the year. United will deploy dedicated support teams to help agencies adopt these tools. ^[32]
A particularly notable piece is United’s plan to bring a suite of Online Booking Tool (OBT) “extras” into Travelport’s Deem platform. These features will eventually allow corporate travelers and travel managers to:
- Pool and use unused United travel credits more efficiently,
- Enroll directly into MileagePlus from within corporate booking flows, and
- Apply United Jetstream amenity funds as a form of payment for ancillaries. ^[33]

Independent analysis of the deal suggests it is incrementally positive for margins, by making it easier to sell higher‑yield products and ancillaries to corporate and managed‑travel customers, though it doesn’t fundamentally change near‑term cost pressures. ^[34]

Network strategy: regional partnerships and international expansion

Beyond distribution, United is also reshaping its network and regional feed:

A recent SEC filing shows United acquiring about 7.7 million shares of Republic Airways Holdings—around 18.2% of the combined Mesa–Republic regional airline, which is now the second‑largest U.S. feeder carrier with a fleet of roughly 310 Embraer regional jets. ^[35]
Mesa has disclosed that it will continue flying exclusively for United under a new 10‑year capacity‑purchase agreement, while Republic will keep operating flights for multiple major carriers, including United. ^[36]

On long‑haul, United’s Q3 update highlighted new summer 2026 services to Split (Croatia), Glasgow (Scotland), Santiago de Compostela (Spain) and Bari (Italy), while maintaining its 2025 transatlantic expansion. The carrier says it will serve 46 cities across the Atlantic in 2026, and remains the largest transatlantic airline by destinations. ^[37]

These moves aim to reinforce United’s positioning in slot‑constrained hubs and high‑value international markets, which Citi flagged as key advantages for the “supermajors” group. ^[38]

Demand backdrop: record U.S. air travel and a 2026‑centric cycle call

The broader environment matters enormously for UAL:

Over the Thanksgiving period, the TSA reported a new all‑time record of about 3.13 million passengers screened on November 30, 2025, with all ten of the busiest U.S. travel days ever occurring in 2024 or 2025. A Benzinga analysis suggested that major carriers including United could benefit from this record traffic, potentially offsetting revenue lost during the recent 43‑day U.S. government shutdown that temporarily constrained flights. ^[39]
The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), which counts UAL as a top holding, has been grinding higher, reflecting growing optimism that airline earnings could improve into 2026 as demand normalizes. ^[40]

Citi’s “Supermajors Super‑Cycle” argument leans heavily on this macro backdrop: capacity discipline, fewer competitors due to bankruptcies, recovering corporate travel and a rebound in revenue metrics next year. ^[41]

If that scenario plays out, United’s leverage to premium cabins, loyalty revenue and international flying could amplify upside—but the same leverage cuts the other way if demand disappoints.

Risks: labor negotiations, costs and leverage

Despite the upbeat narrative, UAL’s risk profile is far from low‑key.

Labor: flight attendants and technicians pushing hard

On July 29, 2025, United flight attendants overwhelmingly rejected a tentative agreement, with about 71% voting “no” on a contract that the union said failed to adequately reward years of sacrifice. Turnout was high at over 92%. ^[42]
Reporting and union commentary since then highlight unresolved issues such as unpaid ground time, unpredictable scheduling, rest and hotel quality, and perceived inequities versus pilot deals, even though the rejected pact included what United called “industry‑leading” pay increases (up to ~40% in first‑year value with immediate pay raises of at least 26%). ^[43]
The Association of Flight Attendants (AFA‑CWA) has returned to the bargaining table under federal mediation. Analysts generally see an outright strike as unlikely in the near term, but a tougher settlement could push labor costs higher and add operational risk. ^[44]

On the maintenance and technician side, the Teamsters report that:

United technicians rejected a recent proposal by 99.5%, pushing for stronger protections against outsourcing critical maintenance overseas and more robust apprenticeship programs ahead of a wave of retirements. ^[45]
Negotiations through 2025 have been contentious, with union updates accusing the company of “stalling” and failing to return updated proposals on scope and economics. ^[46]

These disputes are still in negotiation, not crisis—but they add headline and cost risk to the UAL story, especially if talks drag into 2026.

Cost inflation, unit revenue pressure and debt

United’s own disclosures acknowledge several structural challenges:

Unit revenue (TRASM) declined 4.3% in Q3 even as capacity expanded, and management expects CASM (cost per available seat mile) ex‑fuel to grow about 2–3% annually over the medium term, putting pressure on margins if revenue doesn’t keep up. ^[47]
At the end of Q3, the company held $6.7 billion in cash and equivalents versus about $20.8 billion in long‑term debt and finance leases, underscoring the degree of balance‑sheet leverage. ^[48]
A Zacks update this week notes that the stock trades at a forward P/E around 10.1, below the airline industry’s average multiple (~11.3), but with a PEG ratio slightly above the industry average, implying that some of the growth is already priced in despite sector‑level headwinds. ^[49]

In short, United is a highly leveraged, high‑operating‑leverage business in a cyclical industry. The upside is meaningful in a strong recovery; the downside can be sharp if conditions deteriorate, costs spike, or labor disputes escalate.

How UAL looks as of December 6, 2025

Putting the pieces together, the UAL stock setup today looks like this:

Price & valuation: Around $105 per share, near the top of its 52‑week range, trading at roughly 10x earnings with above‑market volatility and significant debt. ^[50]
Street view: Most major analyst platforms show a Buy / Strong Buy‑tilted consensus, with average 12‑month price targets in the mid‑$120s and some outlier valuations much higher. ^[51]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 delivered better‑than‑expected EPS, modest revenue growth and strong operational metrics, with management guiding to potentially record revenue in Q4. ^[52]
Strategy: United is leaning into premium cabins, loyalty, tech‑enabled retailing (Travelport), and international network strength, supported by selective regional stakes like its investment in Republic Airways. ^[53]
Cycle call: Citi’s “Supermajors Super‑Cycle” thesis and record U.S. air‑travel demand provide a bullish macro narrative into 2026, though this remains a forecast, not a guarantee. ^[54]
Risks: Tough labor negotiations, cost inflation, unit‑revenue pressure and a highly leveraged balance sheet all mean UAL remains a high‑risk, high‑beta airline play, not a defensive holding. ^[55]

For investors, UAL today is essentially a leveraged bet on a 2026 airline up‑cycle and United’s ability to convert brand investments and distribution upgrades into durable, higher‑quality earnings—while successfully navigating labor, cost and macro turbulence.

This article is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in United Airlines or any other security should carefully assess their own risk tolerance and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser.