New York, Jan 30, 2026, 12:56 (EST) — Regular session
- After a sharp post-earnings swing, investors are parsing United Rentals’ 2026 outlook
- As the company updates its fleet, buybacks and dividends regain focus
- Margin pressure from specialty rentals and rising delivery costs continue to be major swing factors
United Rentals (NYSE:URI) shares slipped roughly 0.3% to $784.73 in midday trading Friday, following the company’s quarterly earnings report and its 2026 forecast. So far today, the stock has fluctuated between $775.02 and $802.48.
United Rentals, the world’s biggest equipment rental firm, often serves as a key indicator for construction and industrial trends. Its yearly forecast shapes market expectations for equipment demand in major projects come 2026.
Focus this round is on cost trends, especially delivery and repositioning expenses, plus the speed at which demand from big projects translates into cash flow. Investors are keeping an eye on used equipment sales too, since offloading older fleet can significantly impact quarterly profits.
United Rentals reported Q4 total revenue of $4.208 billion, with rental revenue hitting $3.581 billion. Net income came in at $653 million, while used equipment sales dropped 14.6% to $386 million. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $11.09. For 2026, the company forecasted revenue between $16.8 billion and $17.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA—its non-GAAP cash-profit measure—ranging from $7.575 billion to $7.825 billion. Free cash flow, defined as cash left after equipment spending but excluding merger and restructuring costs, was projected at $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion. It also planned gross rental fleet purchases between $4.3 billion and $4.7 billion. (SEC)
A recent regulatory filing revealed the board has approved a fresh $5 billion share buyback program with no set end date. United Rentals aims to repurchase $1.5 billion in shares during 2026, following the completion of its current $2 billion program, which it anticipates wrapping up by the first quarter. (SEC)
Chief Executive Matthew Flannery described 2025 as a year of “record revenue and EBITDA,” adding that the initial outlook for 2026 signals “another year of profitable growth with strong free cash flow.” The company also announced plans to return roughly $2 billion to shareholders next year via repurchases and dividends. (United Rentals)
On the earnings call, Flannery told investors, “Our project pipeline is larger than ever,” highlighting new starts in health care, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure, alongside consistent data-center projects. Strong demand also meant some fleet stayed with customers longer: “We weren’t going to pull them from customers to sell them.” (Equipment Finance News)
Specialty rentals revenue climbed 9.2% to $1.183 billion, but the rental gross margin in that segment dropped 520 basis points, settling at 40.3%. The company pointed to rising depreciation and delivery expenses, alongside a shift toward lower-margin ancillary revenue, as the main drivers behind the margin compression. (United Rentals Investor Relations)
Beyond United Rentals, the sector’s outlook hinges on peers like Herc Holdings and Ashtead Group’s Sunbelt Rentals. Investors are eyeing these names closely for signs on rates, utilization, and the strength of nonresidential construction demand.
Shares plunged roughly 14% on Thursday following the earnings, a drop that overshadowed the more muted decline on Friday. The sharp move sparked debate among traders over whether the margin squeeze is temporary, linked to fleet adjustments and inflation, or a more persistent challenge. (Nasdaq)
However, the company’s forecast depends on continued momentum in big projects and stable pricing. Any slowdown in data centers or setbacks in infrastructure and power jobs could dent utilization rates, making it tougher to cover delivery and depreciation expenses.
Investors will now zero in on cost-cutting measures and whether the buyback accelerates under the fresh authorization. The dividend is set for payment on Feb. 25 to shareholders recorded by Feb. 11. (Businesswire)
