United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE American: UAMY) has become one of the most closely watched “critical minerals” stocks of 2025—partly because antimony has moved from obscure industrial input to strategic flashpoint, and partly because UAMY’s own contract wins and expansion plans have repeatedly jolted the share price.
With U.S. markets trading through Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (despite a federal-government closure order that didn’t change exchange schedules), liquidity and headlines are colliding in the classic year-end way: moves can look bigger, faster, and noisier than they would in mid-January. [1]
Below is what’s driving attention around UAMY stock today, what the latest filings and contracts say, where analyst forecasts sit right now, and the key risks investors keep circling.
UAMY stock price action on Dec. 24, 2025: volatility is the feature, not the bug
UAMY entered Christmas-week trading after a sharp move on Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. One widely followed technical/quant summary noted UAMY gained 7.87% on the day, rising from $5.59 to $6.03, with an unusually wide intraday range (roughly $5.52 to $6.36). [2]
A separate market recap also described an outsized day, citing a jump to roughly $6.04 on heavy volume. [3]
Early Dec. 24 pre-market indications were still firm, with one brokerage-style snapshot showing UAMY around $6.13 in pre-market trading. [4]
One thing to keep in mind on a date like today: holiday-week tape can exaggerate moves, especially in smaller, high-beta names. That doesn’t “invalidate” a rally or selloff—but it does mean investors often demand confirmation once normal volume returns.
Why UAMY is in the spotlight: antimony is now a supply-chain and defense story
Antimony is used across a messy spread of modern industry—munitions components, batteries, flame retardants, and parts of electronics/semiconductor supply chains—and it has become more politicized as governments focus on “critical minerals” independence. [5]
That backdrop matters for UAMY because the company is positioned as a rare North American operator in a market where supply-chain concentration is a constant theme in policy and media coverage.
Recent non-company headlines have reinforced that antimony is still a geopolitical lever:
- China antimony smuggling case: A Chinese court convicted multiple people tied to smuggling antimony—a reminder that export/licensing regimes can create gray markets and supply uncertainty. [6]
- China export policy whiplash (licensing still matters): Reporting this fall highlighted that even when bans are eased, licensing requirements can continue to shape real-world availability. [7]
- U.S. defense-driven refining efforts: Reuters reported the U.S. military is backing small-scale refining concepts starting with antimony-related materials, underscoring how directly “national security” is now tied to these inputs. [8]
- New allied refining capacity: Reuters also reported major planned investment into U.S.-based critical minerals processing (including antimony among outputs), though on a multi-year timeline. [9]
For UAMY stock, the takeaway is simple: the antimony narrative is still hot, and it’s being fueled by defense, industrial policy, and supply-chain headlines—not just commodity-cycle chatter.
The biggest UAMY-specific catalysts: two long-term contracts with eye-popping headline values
1) The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) contract: “up to $245 million” through 2030
UAMY’s most widely cited catalyst in 2025 is a five-year, sole-source IDIQ (Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity) contract from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Strategic Materials program to supply antimony metal ingots for the National Defense Stockpile.
- Reuters reported the award at up to $245 million. [10]
- The company’s Form 10‑Q describes the DLA agreement as a contract with a maximum value of $245 million to replenish the stockpile through September 2030, with pricing determined when each delivery order is placed. [11]
That last detail is crucial for investors modeling revenue: an IDIQ’s headline number is a ceiling, not a guaranteed check, and the economic outcome depends on delivery orders, timing, and pricing.
2) The antimony trioxide (ATO) commercial supply deal: “up to $106.7 million”
The second major pillar is a commercial supply agreement for antimony trioxide, widely used in flame-retardant applications.
- A widely circulated market report summarized the contract as up to $106.7 million over an initial five-year term, with an option to extend. [12]
- The company disclosed in an 8‑K that it entered into a five-year supply agreement to sell antimony trioxide to a large U.S. industrial fabric manufacturer (with the agreement filed as an exhibit, portions omitted under standard SEC rules). [13]
Add the two headline ceilings together and you get roughly $351.7 million in potential contracted value ($245M + $106.7M). That’s why many bullish writeups frame 2025 as a “contract transformation year” for UAMY—even while skeptics emphasize the difference between announced maximum value and recognized revenue.
Operations update: Montana mining activity and “vertical integration” ambitions
Beyond contracts, UAMY’s 2025 narrative has leaned heavily on increasing domestic feedstock and processing control.
One notable operational thread: Stibnite Hill in Montana. A recent industry roundup cited UAMY’s update that “truck number 50” brought ore down and that about 800 tons of antimony ore had been removed to date, with winter weather likely to pause the project until spring thaw. [14]
Another market summary of the same update added that the company expects flotation work to potentially produce concentrate meeting military specifications for antimony trisulfide and noted pending assay results from outside parties. [15]
Translation: UAMY is trying to move along the value chain—from sourcing to processing to selling specialized products—so that it can be less exposed to external ore supply shocks and capture more margin if the expansion works.
What the latest financial/earnings coverage says: growth story, but not a straight line
Public coverage of UAMY’s latest quarterly results has emphasized a central tension: rapid growth and strategic positioning, alongside earnings volatility and big expectations.
An Investing.com earnings-call transcript summary reported that UAMY’s Q3 2025 EPS came in at – $0.04 versus an expected $0.03, and revenue came in at $8.7 million versus a $12.8 million forecast (while also describing strong year-over-year growth in the first nine months). [16]
This is one reason UAMY has traded like a “headline stock” all year: when the market is paying up for a strategic narrative, quarterly execution surprises can hit harder—up or down.
Analyst forecasts for UAMY stock on Dec. 24, 2025: wide ranges, limited coverage
Analyst coverage exists, but it’s not like tracking a mega-cap with 40 analysts and a thousand-page consensus model.
Here’s where widely cited forecast dashboards sit right now:
MarketBeat: consensus target ~ $6.08
MarketBeat lists an average 12-month price target of $6.08, with the high at $10.25 and the low at $3.00 (and notes the average target implies only modest upside from prices around the low-$6 range). [17]
TipRanks: average target ~ $10.00
TipRanks shows an average target of $10.00, with forecasts clustered tightly between $9.75 and $10.25, based on three analysts in the past three months. (Its displayed “upside” math depends on the “last price” it’s referencing at the time.) [18]
Simply Wall St: fair value estimate ~ $9.67
A Simply Wall St narrative update cited a fair value estimate around $9.67 per share, based on its assumptions and valuation framework. [19]
What to make of the spread
When one screen says “~$6” and another says “~$10,” it’s tempting to treat one as “wrong.” In reality, this kind of dispersion often shows up when:
- coverage is thin (small changes in assumptions swing targets),
- the company’s future revenue depends on delivery orders and ramp execution,
- the stock has already moved sharply, and
- the broader commodity/supply-chain narrative is shifting fast.
Technical and sentiment signals: momentum is real, but the tape is jumpy
On the technical side, at least one short-term forecast/technical site highlighted the size of the daily move and the large trading range, while also noting the stock was still down over the prior two weeks even after the Dec. 23 surge—classic “whipsaw” behavior. [20]
Positioning-wise, short interest has also been part of the conversation. Data snapshots around late November showed 15.94 million shares sold short and short interest around 11.74% of float (numbers that can change meaningfully from report to report). [21]
High short interest doesn’t guarantee a “short squeeze,” but in a stock that already moves quickly, it can amplify rallies if volume spikes and shorts rush to cover—or amplify drops if momentum breaks.
Key risks investors keep debating with UAMY
Even the bullish case usually comes with asterisks. The main ones:
Contract value vs. realized revenue
“Up to $245 million” and “up to $106.7 million” are big numbers—but IDIQ structures and multi-year supply agreements still hinge on delivery schedules, pricing mechanisms, and execution. UAMY’s 10‑Q explicitly notes DLA pricing is determined when delivery orders are placed. [22]
Commodity price volatility and policy risk
Antimony is policy-sensitive right now. Licensing regimes, export enforcement, and national stockpiling decisions can move prices and availability in non-linear ways. [23]
Scaling and operational execution
Mining, permitting, assay validation, and processing expansions are slow, physical, and expensive—even when the market wants them to be instant. The Montana update itself flagged seasonal constraints. [24]
Small-cap microstructure
UAMY has traded with periods of explosive volume and sharp pullbacks, and holiday-week conditions can intensify that. [25]
What to watch next: the catalysts that could matter most after the holidays
Heading into early 2026, investors watching United States Antimony Corporation stock will likely focus on:
- New DLA delivery orders and how quickly the contract translates into recognized sales (and at what pricing). [26]
- More detail on commercial contract economics (volumes, margins, renewal mechanics) beyond headline value. [27]
- Operational assay/test-work updates tied to Montana activities and processing plans. [28]
- Antimony policy headlines—because this commodity is currently as political as it is industrial. [29]
Bottom line
UAMY is trading at the intersection of defense procurement, critical minerals policy, and commodity-linked execution risk. The stock’s late-December move reflects how quickly sentiment can swing when contracts, supply-chain headlines, and thin holiday liquidity all stack together.
For investors, the real question isn’t whether antimony is “important” (it clearly is in today’s policy environment), but whether UAMY can consistently convert headline contract ceilings and expansion plans into durable, profitable cash flows—without getting derailed by the very volatility that put it on the map.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockinvest.us, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. public.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.tomshardware.com, 7. www.tomshardware.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. stocktwits.com, 13. www.stocktitan.net, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. stockinvest.us, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.tomshardware.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.stocktitan.net, 28. www.stocktitan.net, 29. www.reuters.com
