New York, February 5, 2026, 18:11 EST — After-hours trading
- UnitedHealth shares slipped 2.7%, ending the day at $268.55; after-hours trading showed minimal movement
- Medicare Advantage reimbursement proposals continue to cast a shadow over U.S. managed care
- Investors are focused on the comment deadline set for Feb. 25 and the rate announcement scheduled for April 6
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) shares ended Thursday down 2.7%, closing at $268.55, and saw minimal movement after hours. The stock fluctuated between $258.50 and $276.67, with roughly 12.9 million shares traded.
The move ratchets up pressure on the largest U.S. health insurer as investors wrestle with margin forecasts in Medicare Advantage, the privately managed Medicare plans mostly financed by federal funds. For UnitedHealth, even minor tweaks in reimbursement calculations can send earnings estimates swinging.
Attention turns to the government’s draft update for 2027 Medicare Advantage payments. CMS put the net average year-over-year change at just 0.09%, roughly $700 million, but noted the “expected average change” jumps to 2.54% when factoring in the estimated risk-score trend. This highlights how coding and risk adjustment can shift the headline figure. Comments are due by Feb. 25, with the final 2027 Rate Announcement slated for release by April 6. (CMS)
UnitedHealth trailed a soft market, with the S&P 500 proxy SPY slipping roughly 1.2%. The sector showed mixed moves: Humana (HUM) and CVS Health (CVS) advanced, but Elevance Health (ELV) dropped near 2.4%.
A report from Barron’s on Wednesday highlighted that UnitedHealth’s turnaround is once more being challenged by Medicare policy issues and risk-adjustment hurdles. “That took the wind out of everyone’s sails,” Baird analyst Michael Ha said in the piece. (Barron’s)
UnitedHealth projected its 2026 revenue to exceed $439 billion, a drop from $447.6 billion expected in 2025, while aiming for adjusted earnings above $17.75 per share. “We confronted challenges directly and finished 2025 as a much stronger company,” CEO Stephen Hemsley said in the company’s outlook. (UnitedHealth Group)
Investors had expected a bigger jump in Medicare rates. “People were ballparking this flat rate to be closer to 4 to 5%,” said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Bahl & Gaynor, which holds UnitedHealth shares, after the proposal dropped. Morningstar analyst Julie Utterback noted the industry will be watching closely to see if CMS revises its assumptions before finalizing the update. (Reuters)
UnitedHealthcare CEO Tim Noel described the rate as “disappointing” during an earnings call following the notice, Healthcare Finance News reported. (Healthcare Finance News)
But the numbers can shift, and it’s not just CMS on the hook. If medical costs stay stubbornly high—thanks to greater care usage or pricier drugs—insurers could see their medical care ratios spike, tightening profits even if premium rates get a boost.
Traders will keep an eye on analyst revisions through Friday and into next week, watching closely for any hints that CMS might soften its stance on the tougher elements of the 2027 framework. The next key date is Feb. 25, when the comment period ends, followed by the rate announcement on April 6.
