Singapore, Feb 10, 2026, 15:00 SGT — Regular session
United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB) ticked up in Tuesday’s afternoon session, with the stock adding 0.47% to hit S$38.88 by 2:59 p.m. ahead of the lender’s full-year results due later this month. Shares traded between S$38.52 and S$38.99, roughly 1.5 million units changing hands. 1
This matters: Singapore’s banks are starting earnings season with a notably more guarded outlook on rates. DBS posted a 10% drop in fourth-quarter net profit and reiterated its forecast for 2026—expecting net profit to be “slightly below” 2025 levels. CGS International analysts Tay Wee Kuang and Lim Siew Khee cited “weaker-than-expected markets trading income” as the culprit for the shortfall. CEO Tan Su Shan didn’t sugarcoat things, advising clients to “buckle up” for what she called a “volatile year”. 2
Macro news dropped this day and went right into the mix for banks’ outlooks on loan demand and asset quality. Singapore bumped its 2026 growth projection up to a 2%–4% range after fourth-quarter 2025 GDP showed a 6.9% year-on-year jump. The central bank added that inflation is lining up with its 1% to 2% forecast. Barclays economist Brian Tan now sees 2026 GDP up 3.5%, though he flagged a likely sequential slide in Q1 GDP. 3
Rates are still the swing factor. On Tuesday, traders leaned toward the U.S. Federal Reserve pausing until June, pricing futures with slim odds for a March move. The U.S. 10-year yield hovered near 4.184%. 4
DBS fell 0.79% to S$57.73, while OCBC edged down 0.23% at S$21.33 among Singapore’s major banks. The Straits Times Index hovered 0.07% lower near 4,957. 5
UOB’s immediate spotlight lands on its net interest margin — that critical spread banks pocket on loans versus what they shell out for deposits — and if it manages to stay firm as local rates drift lower. Fees from wealth management and cards are on investors’ radar too, along with the ever-volatile trading income that tends to swing around each quarter.
Credit costs remain a key factor. Banks refer to these as provisions, funds reserved for possible loan defaults. They’re usually measured in basis points (bps), with one bp equal to one-hundredth of a percent, relative to the total loan book.
The setup isn’t one-way. Faster-than-expected rate cuts can squeeze margins in a hurry, while weaker growth risks driving up provisions and putting a lid on dividend hopes. And a spike in market volatility? That’s another hit—trading revenue comes under pressure, even if the core lending engine keeps running.
UOB will post its FY2025 and fourth-quarter numbers on Feb. 24 in Singapore. The dividend is in focus, along with any new signals on margins or credit costs, as traders parse the bank’s update—especially after DBS took a more cautious view for 2026. 6
