Upstart Stock Today (UPST): Price, Outlook and the Impact of the New $1.5B Castlelake Deal – November 23, 2025

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) heads into the new week as one of the market’s most hotly debated AI and fintech names. After a volatile November, the Upstart stock price sits at $37.09 as of Friday’s close, near the lower end of its 52‑week range and well below its 2025 highs. ^[1]

Investors are trying to reconcile blistering growth and real profitability with slowing guidance, rich valuations and big price swings around earnings. Add in a fresh $1.5 billion loan‑purchase agreement with Castlelake, and UPST is a classic “high risk, high reward” story dominating watchlists this weekend. ^[2]

Key takeaways for Upstart stock today

• Price & recent performance: Upstart closed Friday, November 21 at $37.09, up about 4.2% on the day on roughly 6.1 million shares of volume. ^[3]
• Volatility still intense: Despite that bounce, shares are down about 26% over the past month, 39% year to date and nearly 50% over the last 12 months, even though they’ve roughly doubled over three years. ^[4]
• Q3 2025 was strong on the surface: Revenue grew around 71% year over year to about $277 million, with EPS of $0.52 beating estimates of $0.42 and swinging from a loss a year ago. ^[5]
• But guidance slowed the party: Management guided fourth‑quarter revenue to about $288 million, up 32% year over year but below Wall Street’s ~$304 million expectation, sending the stock down roughly 15% in after‑hours trading on earnings day. ^[6]
• Funding risk eased by Castlelake: A new 12‑month, $1.5 billion forward‑flow agreement with Castlelake aims to secure funding for loans on Upstart’s platform and is the third such deal between the two companies. ^[7]
• Analyst stance: cautious but not bearish: MarketBeat reports 14 covering firms with an average rating of “Hold” (1 Sell, 7 Hold, 6 Buy) and an average 12‑month target around $64.6, while other aggregators list an average target in the low‑to‑mid $60s — 50–70% above the current price. ^[8]

Upstart stock price today: near the bottom of a wide 52‑week range

On Friday, November 21, 2025, Upstart stock closed at $37.09, gaining about 4.2% on the session, with intraday trading between roughly $34.2 and $37.5. ^[9]

Even after that rebound, UPST remains closer to its 52‑week low of about $31.43 than its high near $96.40, underscoring how sharp the drawdown has been since earlier in the year. ^[10]

Fresh valuation work from Simply Wall St highlights just how wild the ride has been:

• Down ~4.2% over the last week
• Down ~26.4% over the past month
• Down ~39% year to date
• Down nearly 50% over the last 12 months
• Still up just over 100% across three years ^[11]

In other words, Upstart has grown dramatically as a business but given back a large chunk of its stock‑market gains, a classic sign of a market still trying to price fast‑moving fundamentals and high expectations.

Q3 2025: rapid growth and profits, but guidance spooked the market

What Upstart just reported

For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Upstart delivered a set of numbers that, on their own, look impressive:

• Q3 revenue: about $277 million, up ~71% year over year, slightly under consensus estimates near $280 million. ^[12]
• Q3 EPS:$0.52, beating the Zacks consensus estimate of $0.42 and flipping from a $0.06 loss per share a year ago. ^[13]
• Loan originations: about $2.9 billion in loans, up roughly 80% year over year, reflecting strong demand and partner uptake. ^[14]
• Management also highlighted a sixfold sequential increase in GAAP net income, pointing to better operating leverage as volumes scale. ^[15]

Full‑year guidance was equally notable. In a press release hosted via Nasdaq, the company said it now expects for full‑year 2025: ^[16]

• Total revenue of roughly $1.035 billion
• Revenue from fees of about $946 million
• Net interest income around $89 million
• GAAP net income around $50 million
• Adjusted EBITDA margin around 22%

Those numbers, if achieved, would represent a dramatic improvement versus prior years, both in scale and profitability.

Why the stock still sank after earnings

So why did UPST plunge immediately after reporting what looked like a blow‑out quarter?

The short answer: growth is decelerating faster than investors hoped.

• For the December quarter, management guided revenue to about $288 million, up 32% year over year but below the roughly $304 million Wall Street was expecting. ^[17]
• That 32% growth outlook compares to 71% growth in Q3, marking a sharp slowdown even though the absolute revenue level is still rising quickly. ^[18]

MarketWatch reported that shares fell about 15% in after‑hours trading on the evening of the earnings release as traders repriced the stock for slower forward growth. ^[19]

On the call, CEO Dave Girouard stressed that Upstart’s AI‑driven credit models are performing as designed, rapidly adjusting to macro signals, with no material deterioration in consumer credit strength and even some recent signs of improvement. He also described defaults as following more of a “U‑shaped” pattern across credit scores, rather than the widely cited K‑shaped narrative. ^[20]

For long‑term investors, that combination — strong current results, cautious guidance, reassuring credit data — is exactly what makes Upstart so polarizing right now.

The $1.5 billion Castlelake deal: funding stability for Upstart’s AI lending engine

One of the most important headlines this month had nothing to do with earnings per share.

On November 6, Upstart announced a new 12‑month forward‑flow agreement with funds managed by Castlelake, a global alternative investment firm focused on asset‑backed credit. Under the deal, Castlelake has agreed to purchase up to $1.5 billion in consumer loans originated through the Upstart platform. ^[21]

Key details:

• The arrangement is structured as a 12‑month forward‑flow commitment, giving Upstart a clearer line of sight on funding for new loan originations. ^[22]
• It is the third such agreement between the two companies; prior deals included commitments to buy up to $4 billion and then $1.2 billion of Upstart‑originated loans in earlier years. ^[23]

Why this matters for UPST stock:

• Funding has always been one of the biggest perceived risks in Upstart’s model. The platform depends on banks, credit unions and institutional investors to buy the loans its AI approves.
• A sizable, recurring forward‑flow agreement reduces the risk that funding dries up in a risk‑off market, and it helps smooth originations and revenue.
• It also signals confidence from a sophisticated credit investor, which some shareholders see as a vote of confidence in Upstart’s underwriting models.

The Castlelake deal doesn’t eliminate funding risk — no single buyer does — but it meaningfully bolsters the bull case that Upstart can keep scaling even through choppy credit cycles.

Valuation: high growth, high multiple, and big disagreement

Even after the stock’s steep pullback, Upstart still trades at a premium valuation, which is one reason the shares remain so volatile.

• Simply Wall St estimates Upstart’s P/E ratio at around 112x, vastly above a consumer‑finance industry average near 9.7x. ^[24]
• Public.com’s metrics put the P/E north of 160x, depending on which earnings measure you use. ^[25]

Different data providers get slightly different numbers, but the message is the same: UPST is priced like a high‑growth software‑style business, not a traditional lender.

At the same time, Trefis notes that over the last 12 months: ^[26]

• Upstart’s stock price fell from about $74 to $37, nearly a 50% decline,
• While trailing twelve‑month revenue climbed roughly 74%,
• And the price‑to‑sales multiple compressed from around 12x to under 4x.

In other words, the business got much bigger and more profitable, but the market dramatically reset its expectations, moving from “hyper‑growth story” to something closer to “show me” mode.

Third‑party valuation models aren’t in full agreement either:

• Simply Wall St’s excess‑returns model pegs fair value around $43.6 per share, about 15% above the current price — suggesting mild undervaluation. ^[27]
• Technical and sentiment‑driven analyses (such as those from HeyGoTrade and others) highlight support zones in the low‑30s and potential upside targets in the mid‑50s to low‑70s if risk appetite returns, underscoring just how wide the possible outcomes are. ^[28]

For potential investors, the takeaway is clear: UPST’s valuation already bakes in years of growth and execution. Any stumble — or even just slower‑than‑hoped guidance — tends to be punished quickly.

What Wall Street is saying about Upstart stock right now

Analysts are far from unanimous on Upstart, but most agree on two points:

1. the business is improving, and
2. the stock is risky.

According to MarketBeat:

• 14 research firms currently cover UPST.
• The average rating is “Hold”, with 1 Sell, 7 Hold, and 6 Buy recommendations.
• The average 12‑month price target is about $64.6, implying roughly 70–75% upside from around $37. ^[29]

Other data providers echo the upside but sometimes label the consensus differently:

• StockAnalysis reports an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target around $63.4, about 71% above the latest price. ^[30]
• Business Insider aggregates 38 analysts with a median target near $57.5 and a wide range from $10 to $108, again implying substantial upside from current levels but with enormous dispersion. ^[31]
• TickerNerd summarises the overall rating as a “Buy” with moderate conviction, pointing to a median forecast implying just over 50% upside. ^[32]

Recently, several major banks — including Citigroup, JPMorgan, Piper Sandler and Bank of America — have cut their price targets while still maintaining mostly Buy or Hold ratings, a classic sign that analysts are trimming expectations rather than abandoning the story. ^[33]

The upshot: Wall Street sees upside, but not without meaningful risk, and doesn’t have a unified view on how to balance the two.

Credit quality and macro: the hidden drivers of UPST

Because Upstart’s entire value proposition is built around AI‑driven credit underwriting, the stock is extremely sensitive to:

1. Consumer credit trends
2. Interest‑rate expectations and funding conditions

On the Q3 call and in follow‑up commentary, management emphasized: ^[34]

• No material deterioration in consumer credit strength among its borrowers,
• A U‑shaped distribution of defaults, with sub‑660 scores holding up reasonably well and 800‑plus borrowers doing “very well,” while defaults are elevated for mid‑tier scores around 720–750,
• Upstart’s AI models have adjusted to macro shifts, tightening or loosening approval criteria as risk signals change.

If those claims continue to hold up in the real world — especially through any downturn — it would reinforce the core thesis that Upstart can outperform traditional FICO‑based lenders on risk‑adjusted returns.

On the flip side, if consumer credit worsens or new vintages underperform expectations, sentiment could swing hard the other way, as the model’s credibility is central to the company’s long‑term story.

Key risks to keep in mind

Before anyone even thinks about pressing “Buy” on UPST, it’s worth highlighting the major risk factors generally cited by analysts and market commentators: ^[35]

• Funding concentration: Upstart is still dependent on a relatively concentrated set of bank partners and institutional buyers. Deals like the Castlelake forward‑flow help, but diversifying funding sources further is critical.
• Macro and rate sensitivity: As a lender‑adjacent business, Upstart’s volumes and credit performance are naturally sensitive to interest rates, unemployment and consumer confidence.
• Regulatory overhang: Any change in consumer‑finance regulation, AI oversight, or fair‑lending rules could alter how Upstart markets its platform or prices risk.
• Competition: Incumbent banks, fintechs and other AI‑driven platforms are all racing to apply machine learning to credit; there is no guarantee Upstart keeps its lead.
• Valuation and volatility: With a triple‑digit P/E multiple and a history of double‑digit post‑earnings moves, UPST is inherently a high‑beta, high‑volatility stock. ^[36]

What to watch next for Upstart stock

For traders and long‑term investors watching Upstart stock today, a few upcoming catalysts and metrics matter most:

1. Execution against Q4 guidance
   • Does Upstart hit (or beat) the $288 million revenue outlook and maintain profitability? ^[37]
2. Credit performance of recent loan vintages
   • Any sign that recent cohorts are underperforming would undercut the AI underwriting story; steady or improving performance would reinforce management’s claims. ^[38]
3. New bank and credit‑union partners
   • Expanding the partner base helps diversify risk and grow originations without relying solely on large, concentrated institutional buyers. ^[39]
4. Additional forward‑flow or securitization deals
   • More arrangements like Castlelake’s $1.5 billion commitment would further de‑risk the funding side of the business. ^[40]
5. Macro data and rate expectations
   • As the market updates its views on interest‑rate cuts, consumer health and credit spreads, sentiment toward all fintech and lending names — including UPST — is likely to swing accordingly. ^[41]

Bottom line: Upstart stock on November 23, 2025

Heading into the week of November 24, Upstart stock sits in a tense middle ground:

• The business is clearly stronger than it was a year or two ago — revenue is growing rapidly, profitability has emerged, and funding has been reinforced by deals like Castlelake. ^[42]
• Yet the share price reflects deep investor skepticism, with the stock nearly halved over 12 months and trading with extreme volatility around every macro and earnings headline. ^[43]

For now, the overall market view looks something like this:

Upstart is a high‑quality but high‑risk AI lending platform, priced for growth, with meaningful upside if management keeps executing — and equally meaningful downside if credit or funding stumbles.

As always, nothing here is personal financial advice. Upstart is the kind of stock that can meaningfully boost or hurt a portfolio, depending on your risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification. Anyone considering UPST should do their own research, stress‑test their assumptions, and consider speaking with a qualified financial professional before making decisions.

References

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