New York, Feb 4, 2026, 06:44 EST — Premarket
- U.S. stock index futures held steady as investors awaited ADP private payrolls and the ISM services survey.
- The Treasury will release quarterly refunding details at 8:30 a.m. ET, with yields remaining sensitive to any changes in issuance chatter.
- After a steep drop in the sector, chip and software stocks jumped early on; Alphabet’s earnings report is expected after the bell.
U.S. stock index futures hovered near flat on Wednesday as traders braced for a packed economic calendar, featuring ADP’s January jobs report and the ISM services index. At 05:29 a.m. ET, Dow futures edged up 0.27%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.05%. In premarket moves, Advanced Micro Devices dropped 7.2%, and Super Micro Computer surged 12.4%.
There’s a snag with the data. President Donald Trump signed a spending bill Tuesday to end a four-day partial government shutdown that had thrown federal operations into disarray. The Labor Department, however, announced the January employment report will be delayed due to the funding gap, with no date set for its release. “The staff is already under extreme pressure,” said former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erica Groshen. Reuters
Rate expectations continue to drive the market. The Fed’s benchmark rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following last week’s 10-2 vote. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated no rate cuts are on the horizon this year. “So I think this is the time to be patient,” Bostic said. Reuters
Wednesday’s schedule kicks off at 7:00 a.m. ET with MBA mortgage applications, then ADP private payrolls drop at 8:15 a.m. ET. The Treasury will reveal its refunding plans at 8:30 a.m. ET. S&P Global’s final U.S. PMI numbers arrive at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by the ISM services index at 10:00 a.m. ET. The EIA’s weekly petroleum status report closes out the morning at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Economists surveyed by Investing.com expect ADP nonfarm employment to increase by 46,000 in January, up from 41,000 in December. The ADP figure, a private payrolls estimate, is often viewed as an early indicator of hiring trends, though it doesn’t always match the government’s official nonfarm payroll numbers.
According to FXStreet, the ISM services PMI is forecasted to drop to 53.5 from December’s 54.4. This survey-based measure signals whether the sector is expanding—scores above 50 mean growth. Traders keep a close eye on elements like new orders, employment, and prices paid for hints about demand and inflation pressure.
The Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement stands out as a key market mover, with investors weighing how much long-term supply will be necessary amid shifting deficit forecasts. It plans to borrow $574 billion in privately-held net marketable debt in the January–March 2026 quarter and $109 billion in the following April–June period. More details on financing will come out at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.
Bond desks are gearing up not just for the numbers but the messaging too. Jefferies’ chief U.S. economist Thomas Simons said the borrowing estimates “present little risk of any changes to coupon auction sizes in the near term,” while noting there’s no sign coupon issuance will be cut anytime soon. The Treasury is expected to keep note and bond auction sizes steady for an eighth consecutive quarter. Reuters
The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.28%, with the dollar index sitting close to 97.35 during early U.S. trading. That sets the stage for today’s data to steer the move.
Earnings bring fresh focus. Big names like Eli Lilly, AbbVie, and Uber are set to report before the bell, as investors look for clues on whether consumer and corporate demand remain steady amid persistent cost pressures.
Today’s situation is complicated. Key federal labor reports have been delayed, pushing traders to rely more heavily on private indicators and surveys. These can offer timely insights but often lack consistency, increasing the chances of sudden reversals if those private signals conflict or market confidence wavers.
Wednesday evening brings a key speech from Fed Governor Lisa Cook at 6:30 p.m. ET. After the market close, all eyes will be on Alphabet’s earnings, offering fresh insight into big-tech spending and the wider appetite for risk.
