New York, Jan 16, 2026, 07:03 (EST) — Premarket
U.S. gasoline prices held steady early Friday. Wholesale RBOB gasoline futures ticked up roughly 0.5% to $1.7926 a gallon, following a 2.55% slide on Thursday. The AAA national average for regular unleaded dipped slightly to $2.839. 1
This matters since gasoline prices are highly visible to consumers and can shift rapidly, impacting both inflation figures and household budgets.
Traders keep an eye on wholesale gasoline since it tends to shift before the pump prices do. Retail prices typically lag and adjust more gradually, particularly in January.
Fuel prices dropped Thursday as traders scaled back fears of a near-term supply disruption from Iran following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, coupled with U.S. data revealing rising fuel inventories. “That is the bulk of the downward pressure today on prices,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. 2
Oil held steady on Friday as supply concerns lingered, despite easing fears of an imminent U.S. strike. “Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply,” noted Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova. 3
AAA reported that pump prices edged up last week to about $2.84 a gallon but remained below where they stood a year ago. This aligns with the usual January trend, as demand drops and refiners shift to cheaper winter-blend gasoline, a seasonal mix that generally costs less to produce. The group also pointed to Energy Information Administration figures showing gasoline demand climbed to 8.30 million barrels per day last week, with total domestic supply rising to 251 million barrels. Meanwhile, WTI crude settled at $62.02 a barrel Wednesday, as crude stockpiles increased. 4
But that calm can shatter quickly. A refinery glitch, a spike in demand from weather, or a new jump in crude prices can push wholesale and retail prices apart, leaving stations scrambling to catch up for days.
The EIA reported a 9.0 million barrel increase in total motor gasoline inventories last week, putting stocks roughly 4% above the five-year average for this period. Meanwhile, crude inventories lingered about 3% below the typical seasonal level. 5
The combination of ample gasoline supplies alongside tighter crude inventories creates conflicting price pressures. High refinery runs could keep a lid on price gains by maintaining that inventory buffer. But if runs drop, the market could tighten quickly.
The national average at the pump masks significant regional differences. Coastal areas typically respond more quickly to changes in refinery output and imports, whereas inland markets often shift more gradually unless disrupted by local supply issues.
The next major data point is the U.S. government’s inventory update: the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report is set for Jan. 22. Traders will keep an eye on any Iran-related news and initial signals of refinery maintenance picking up through February. 6
