NEW YORK, February 6, 2026, 08:36 EST — Premarket
- Futures point higher after a tech-led selloff, but Amazon slides on a fresh jump in 2026 capital spending.
- The S&P 500 ended Thursday down 1.2% at 6,798.40; the Nasdaq fell 1.6%.
- Investors brace for delayed U.S. jobs and inflation reports next week that could reset rate-cut bets.
U.S. stock index futures rose ahead of Friday’s open as traders tried to steady after a bruising week for tech, while Amazon sank in early trading on another jolt to the AI spending story. At 7 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 0.57%, S&P 500 e-minis gained 0.66% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis rose 0.83%; Amazon slid 7.2% after flagging a more than 50% jump in capital spending (capex) this year. “Sentiment toward the Mag 7 complex has deteriorated sharply,” Pepperstone’s Chris Weston said, while Direxion’s Ryan Lee warned there was “little tolerance for capex without accompanying monetization.” 1
The rebound comes after Thursday’s drop dragged major indexes lower at the close. The S&P 500 fell 84.32 points to 6,798.40, the Dow slid 592.58 points to 48,908.72 and the Nasdaq dropped 363.99 points to 22,540.59, with the Russell 2000 down 1.8%. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 2% and the Nasdaq was off 3.9%, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.7% for 2026 so far. 2
Why it matters now: investors are trying to figure out whether 2026 turns into a straight rotation out of tech or something uglier for the index itself. The tech sector has fallen more than 12% from its late-October peak and still makes up about a third of the S&P 500, leaving the benchmark vulnerable if the slide deepens. “Rotation is the dominant theme this year,” Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas said, while Manulife John Hancock’s Matthew Miskin said the AI trade has shifted from “AI lifted all ships” to a hunt for winners and losers; Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid warned the longer a dominant sector sells off, the harder it gets for the broader index to absorb the drag. 3
Amazon’s own numbers sharpened the debate. The company said its 2026 capex could reach about $200 billion, feeding investor doubts about near-term payback from what Reuters described as a Big Tech AI spending spree estimated at more than $600 billion this year. MoffettNathanson analysts wrote that the direction was no surprise, but “the magnitude of the spend is materially greater than consensus expected.” CEO Andy Jassy struck a defensive tone on the call, saying “it’s very different having 24% year-over-year growth on $142 billion” of annualized AWS revenue; AWS posted $35.6 billion in quarterly revenue, compared with Google Cloud’s 48% growth to $17.75 billion and Microsoft Azure’s 39% rise. 4
The stress is most obvious in software, where investors are weighing whether fast-improving AI tools could dent demand for legacy products. The S&P 500 software and services index dropped 4.6% on Thursday and has shed about $1 trillion in market value since Jan. 28, as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) — an options-based gauge of expected S&P 500 swings — closed at 21.77, its highest since Nov. 21. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider said “near-term earnings results will be important signals of business resilience,” while Alpine Macro’s Nick Giorgi said, “we are reaching a watershed moment.” 5
Macro data hasn’t helped the mood. Weekly jobless claims jumped 22,000 to 231,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.844 million; job openings fell 386,000 to 6.542 million in December, the lowest since September 2020. “More than anything, we see the data as reflective of ongoing judicious hiring practices,” Nationwide’s Oren Klachkin said, while Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs said the openings slide “is potentially suggesting that AI is persuading a rising proportion of businesses to pause on new hiring.” Brean Capital’s John Ryding cautioned the reports were “suggestive but far from conclusive.” 6
The next big test comes with next week’s delayed data dump, pushed back by the brief government shutdown. Reuters’ “Take Five” preview said the January nonfarm payrolls report is due Wednesday and the CPI report follows two days later, as markets gauge the impact of Trump-nominated Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who could take charge in time for the June meeting that markets price as the likely next rate-cut point. The same preview flagged AI “extreme dispersion” — a market that no longer bids everything with an AI label and instead punishes the names that look exposed to disruption. 7
For a 2026 stock market forecast, that mix points to an uneasy base case: slower growth signals but not enough to force the Fed’s hand quickly, plus an AI build-out that keeps chewing through cash. It’s a fine set-up for choppy trading, not a clean trend.
The immediate question is whether the market can keep rotating into “old economy” sectors without the index buckling under tech’s weight. That bet worked for a while. This week tested it.
Traders will also watch how quickly companies move from bigger AI budgets to clearer revenue and margin targets. If management teams can show the payback, capex stops looking like a threat. If they can’t, investors may keep treating 2026 like a “prove it” year.
But the risks cut both ways. A hotter CPI could push yields up and hit long-duration growth shares again, while a weak payrolls print could turn the “soft landing” talk into a growth scare and drag cyclicals with it. Add policy uncertainty around tariffs and you have a market that can gap on headlines.
For Friday’s session, the tell will be whether buyers show up beyond a few chip names and whether volatility keeps easing after Thursday’s spike. If not, the open could feel thin and jumpy.
The next hard catalysts are the delayed January payrolls report on Wednesday, February 11, and the CPI report on Friday, February 13 — the two prints most likely to reset the 2026 rate path and, with it, the S&P 500’s footing.
