New York, April 25, 2026, 13:09 EDT
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched fresh record closes this week, thanks to a late-session surge in chip stocks after Intel’s upbeat forecast rekindled enthusiasm for the artificial-intelligence sector. The Dow lost ground, so beneath the surface, the rally was less broad than the headline highs implied.
The rebound’s about to get challenged. Investors are bracing for a packed week: megacap tech earnings, Q1 U.S. growth numbers, the Fed’s favored inflation figure, and a Federal Reserve meeting set for April 28-29.
Markets ended Friday with a split tape. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 79.61 points, or 0.16%, to 49,230.71. The S&P 500, though, climbed 56.68 points, or 0.80%, to finish at 7,165.08. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 398.09 points, up 1.63%, settling at 24,836.60. On the week: S&P 500 up 0.55%; Nasdaq tacked on 1.5%; Dow off 0.44%.
There was little consistency in the week. Wednesday saw stocks jump to fresh highs after President Donald Trump pushed back the Iran deadline and upbeat earnings lifted moods, but on Thursday, optimism for a speedy resolution slipped and software stocks dragged the broader market lower. Monday had broken the Nasdaq’s 13-day run.
Intel carried the bulk of the move. First-quarter revenue climbed 7% to $13.6 billion, and the chipmaker projected second-quarter revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion—beating the turnaround target investors had set. Non-GAAP earnings guidance landed ahead of consensus too, sending shares to new highs.
Chip stocks moved in tandem. AMD and Arm each surged roughly 14%. Nvidia added 4.32%, setting another closing high, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index climbed 4.32% for an 18-day streak. CPUs—the core chips powering servers and PCs—are back in focus as AI workloads expand past just model training.
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick sees Intel’s results as proof the AI surge isn’t slowing down. Over at Argent Capital Management, Jed Ellerbroek says concerns about hefty AI investments paying off for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are “fading real fast.” Reuters
Edward Jones’ Angelo Kourkafas isn’t mincing words: “The AI build-out race is still on.” Reuters says the semiconductor sub-industry is on track for first-quarter earnings growth of 109.2%—a sharp leap compared to the S&P 500 information technology sector, which is forecast for 48.2%. Reuters
Under the surface, it’s earnings that are pulling weight. By Friday, 81.3% of S&P 500 names that had posted results managed to top analyst forecasts, with first-quarter earnings growth tracking at 16.1%, LSEG figures show, as cited by Reuters.
Still, not everything held up. Software names took a hit Thursday — IBM and ServiceNow both slipped. Tesla slid as well, after bumping up its capex forecast. Then on Friday, Procter & Gamble flagged a potential $1 billion bite out of fiscal 2027 profits tied to war-driven energy costs, underscoring that the Iran situation goes beyond market noise.
Oil’s stubborn presence kept traders on edge. U.S. crude closed out Friday at $94.40 a barrel—notching a daily drop but still rising almost 13% for the week. Brent wrapped up at $105.33, tacking on roughly 16% over the same period. Reuters noted the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil chokepoint, stayed largely impassable.
The Federal Reserve remains in focus. According to Reuters, investors aren’t expecting a rate move next week, and current market pricing reflects less than a full 25-basis-point cut by December—a basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. “A little bit of a tailwind for U.S. assets,” is how Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street, summed up the effect of the Fed staying put. Reuters
Here’s the rough scenario if things go south: peace negotiations hit a wall, oil prices stay stubbornly high, inflation refuses to back down, and the Fed can’t do much to support equities. Sid Vaidya, TD Wealth’s chief investment strategist, pointed out that the market bounce happened “without a permanent resolution in place.” That unresolved conflict, he said, just ramps up the danger for both the economy and the markets if it drags on. Reuters
This week, the U.S. stock market ended at record highs—though hardly with unanimous confidence. Tech did the heavy lifting, chip stocks lit things up. Now, everyone’s watching upcoming earnings to see if this rally’s got more fuel than just the obvious drivers.
