New York — Wall Street began the holiday-shortened week with a steady bid for risk, led by a renewed push in technology and AI-linked names. As of 10:16 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite were all higher, as investors weighed an AI-driven momentum rebound against thin year-end liquidity and a busy batch of economic updates still due before Christmas. [1]
US stock market at 10:16 a.m. ET: Where the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq stand
By mid-morning trade, the major indexes were in the green:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average:48,326.24, +0.40%
- S&P 500:6,865.03, +0.45%
- Nasdaq Composite:23,451.69, +0.62% [2]
Rates and “real assets” were also part of the story. The U.S. 10-year yield hovered around 4.17%, while gold traded near record territory above $4,400/oz, reinforcing the market’s late-year mix of growth optimism and hedging behavior. [3]
Note: Some widely quoted index dashboards use delayed feeds (often ~15 minutes), so intraday figures can vary slightly across platforms. [4]
What’s driving Wall Street today: AI momentum, deal headlines, and a commodity surge
The tone of the session is being set by three overlapping forces: AI/tech leadership, select deal-related movers, and a fresh leg higher in commodities.
1) Tech rebounds again as AI enthusiasm regains the lead
A late-week rally in technology extended into Monday, with chipmakers helping to keep the broader market supported. Reuters pointed to the recent catalyst stack: Micron’s upbeat outlook and a benign inflation print that helped revive “AI trade” confidence. [5]
Key early-session drivers highlighted in today’s coverage include:
- Micron rising again, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index pushed higher (up about 1.1% in early trade). [6]
- Nvidia gaining after reporting indicated it aims to start shipping a new set of AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year period. [7]
This matters for the broader tape because, in 2025, index direction has repeatedly hinged on whether mega-cap tech is leading or lagging—especially when holiday liquidity thins out and incremental flows have an outsized effect.
2) Tesla jumps to an all-time high after court decision on Musk pay package
Another major headline prop today is Tesla, which climbed to a record high after the Delaware Supreme Court restored Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package, according to Reuters. [8]
Big, index-heavy stocks making decisive moves can amplify index performance—particularly in the Nasdaq—so Tesla’s strength is feeding into the broader “megacap support” narrative.
3) Materials and energy lead as commodities rally hard
While tech headlines dominate, materials and energy were also among the leading S&P 500 sectors in early trade, helped by sharply higher commodity prices. [9]
The most dramatic move: gold breaking through $4,400/oz for the first time, with silver hitting a new record—a rally Reuters tied to rate-cut expectations and persistent safe-haven demand. [10]
A key nuance for stock investors: surging commodities can help materials/energy earnings expectations, but it can also keep the market alert to the possibility that inflation proves sticky—a tension that becomes more important as investors look ahead to 2026.
Stock movers in the spotlight: M&A and media deal intrigue
Beyond the index-level push, single-stock news is supplying additional fuel:
- Clearwater Analytics jumped after an $8.4 billion go-private deal (including debt) led by private equity firms, per Reuters. [11]
- Warner Bros. Discovery rose after news that Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison would provide a $40.4 billion personal guarantee tied to financing for Paramount/Skydance’s offer to acquire the company; Paramount shares also climbed. [12]
In a holiday week, when macro news can be light and volumes thin, deal headlines often punch above their weight, creating pockets of volatility even when the major averages drift.
Volatility check: The VIX slides to a multi-month low
One of the quiet but important signals today: Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), fell to its lowest level since September, according to Reuters. [13]
Low volatility can be bullish—suggesting markets see fewer near-term shock risks—but it can also be fragile in late December, when liquidity is reduced and a single surprise headline can cause abrupt swings.
Macro backdrop: Rate-cut expectations are back, but “data fog” remains
Today’s rally is happening against a backdrop where investors are still trying to pin down the Fed’s 2026 path, especially after a year shaped by inflation crosscurrents, AI-led capex spending, and shifting growth signals.
Two macro threads stood out in today’s analysis coverage:
- Rate-cut expectations are supporting risk assets and precious metals. Reuters described gold’s surge as being propelled by expectations for U.S. rate cuts, and cited UBS commentary pointing to broad investor demand for “real assets.” [14]
- Some analysts warn that recent data may be harder to trust. In a widely circulated “week ahead” note published early Monday, economist Ed Yardeni highlighted what he called an economic “fog” following a government shutdown and argued that upcoming GDP and consumer confidence figures could carry extra significance as markets try to interpret the true state of the economy. [15]
What’s next this week: GDP, consumer confidence, jobless claims—and holiday hours
While Monday’s calendar is relatively quiet, the next two sessions carry the most macro risk in an otherwise shortened trading week.
Reuters flagged the key releases investors are watching later this week: GDP, consumer confidence, and weekly jobless claims. [16]
Here’s the practical setup for traders heading into Christmas:
- Tuesday (Dec. 23): Focus shifts to U.S. GDP (Q3 update) and December consumer confidence, along with other growth-sensitive reads. [17]
- Wednesday (Dec. 24):Weekly jobless claims arrive, and U.S. stock markets close early (1 p.m. ET) with bond markets also closing early (2 p.m. ET). [18]
- Thursday (Dec. 25): U.S. markets are closed for Christmas. [19]
Expect lower liquidity and potentially outsized moves on relatively modest headlines—particularly in single names and more thinly traded corners of the market.
Outlook and forecasts: Can a Santa Claus rally still show up in 2025?
With just days left in the year, “Santa rally” talk is back—especially after a choppy December start.
Reuters noted that, historically, the so-called Santa Claus rally refers to the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January, during which the S&P 500 has averaged gains over the long run—adding that the window begins Wednesday this year and runs through Jan. 5. [20]
But forecasts and caution flags are arriving together:
- Bullish case (2026 optimism): Barron’s reported that analysts are looking for meaningful upside in 2026, citing forecasts of roughly 12% S&P 500 gains and about 15% earnings growth, supported by themes like capex, fiscal dynamics, and continued demand resilience. [21]
- Selective AI upside: Barron’s also highlighted a Wedbush call projecting Microsoft as an enterprise AI front-runner in 2026, attaching a $625 price target (about 29% upside from the referenced price). [22]
- Commodities forecast: In metals, Reuters reported a UBS view that gold could reach $4,500/oz next year, a notable projection given gold’s already historic 2025 run. [23]
The key takeaway for today: even with indexes rising, the market is still pricing a two-speed world—AI leaders and select cyclicals catching bids, while investors keep one eye on the Fed’s next move and another on what thin holiday trading might exaggerate.
Bottom line: A constructive start to a tricky, low-liquidity week
As of 10:16 a.m. ET, the US stock market is higher, with a tech-led rebound supporting the Nasdaq and keeping the S&P 500 near record territory. [24]
The near-term question is whether this morning’s strength can hold through:
- Tuesday’s GDP and consumer confidence releases,
- Wednesday’s jobless claims and early close, and
- the usual year-end liquidity squeeze that can amplify both rallies and pullbacks. [25]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com
