At 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, December 22, 2025, the U.S. stock market ended the first session of the holiday-shortened week solidly higher, with technology and AI-linked names extending last week’s rebound and pushing the major benchmarks closer to record territory. Trading was noticeably lighter than usual heading into Christmas, but breadth was strong and volatility eased further—two classic ingredients for a calm year-end tape. [1]
U.S. stock market recap at the close
All three major indexes finished higher:
- S&P 500: 6,878.49, +0.64% (+43.99) [2]
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,362.68, +0.47% (+227.79) [3]
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,428.83, +0.52% (+121.21) [4]
- Russell 2000 (small caps): 2,558.78, +1.2% (+29.36) [5]
In late trading, ETFs that track the major benchmarks also reflected a broadly similar picture—useful as a quick “5 p.m.” proxy for where investors were marking risk after the bell.
The rally kept Wall Street within striking distance of recent highs. Reuters noted the S&P 500 and Dow were less than 1% from their record closing levels set on December 11—a key reference point for anyone watching for another late-year push. [6]
What drove the market higher: tech rebound + “AI trade” back in charge
The day’s leadership came from the same theme that has repeatedly defined risk-on sessions in recent years: mega-cap tech and AI-adjacent semiconductors.
Reuters attributed the renewed momentum in tech to Micron’s upbeat outlook and a cooler inflation print that helped reset expectations for the path of monetary policy, keeping investors comfortable adding exposure into year-end. [7]
Semiconductors and AI names set the tone
- Nvidia was a major index lifter. Reuters reported the company has told Chinese clients it aims to ship its “second-most powerful” AI chips to China before Lunar New Year (mid-February)—a headline that added fuel to the chip complex. [8]
- Micron climbed about 4%, while the broader chip group also advanced; Reuters said the PHLX semiconductor index rose roughly 1.1%. [9]
- Investopedia likewise highlighted the “AI-related shares” leadership, pointing to gains in Micron, Oracle, and Nvidia as emblematic of the day’s tone. [10]
This matters for the bigger picture because the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are increasingly sensitive to what happens in a small cluster of dominant tech and AI-exposed names. When semis rally, the index-level impact can be outsized—even on a day when sector participation is broad.
Sector check: broad participation, with financials and cyclicals in focus
While tech provided the headline fuel, the advance wasn’t a narrow one.
Reuters reported gains in nearly all 11 S&P 500 sectors, with materials and energy among the strongest as commodity prices jumped. [11]
One standout: financials. Reuters said the financial sector gained about 1.3% and closed at a record, an important tell that investors weren’t just crowding into AI—they were also buying economically sensitive exposures into year-end. [12]
Volatility and liquidity: VIX sinks, holiday conditions take over
The market’s “fear gauge” continued to cool:
- Reuters reported the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) posted its lowest closing level in a year, ending around 14.08. [13]
That’s consistent with a market shifting into holiday mode—thin liquidity, fewer catalysts, and a tendency for trends already in motion to persist (up or down) with less resistance.
Trading volume backed up that theme. Reuters put U.S. exchange volume around 14.57 billion shares, below the recent full-session average, and warned liquidity could thin further as Christmas approaches. [14]
Cross-asset signals: yields steady-to-higher, oil firmer, gold and silver at records
Even when equities are the headline, the bond market and commodities often explain why investors are comfortable buying stocks.
Treasury yields: slightly higher on the day
Reuters reported the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.162%, modestly higher on the session. [15]
Meanwhile, Nuveen’s weekly fixed income commentary noted the 10-year yield ended last week near 4.15%, and argued yields remain attractive, even as downside risks to growth (including tariff-related pressures) remain “material.” [16]
Oil: geopolitical headlines add support
Reuters reported Brent crude rose to settle around $62.07 a barrel. [17]
The Associated Press added context, noting oil prices jumped after the U.S. Coast Guard said it was pursuing another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean—a reminder that geopolitical risk is still part of the late-2025 backdrop. [18]
Gold and silver: year-end surge to fresh highs
One of the most striking “risk-off” signals alongside the equity rally was in precious metals:
- Reuters reported spot gold hit a record around $4,435/oz, and silver reached about $69.44, with both supported by expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical tension. [19]
- Reuters also cited analyst expectations for continued strength next year, including Goldman Sachs forecasting gold at $4,900 by December 2026. [20]
It’s an unusual but increasingly common late-cycle mix: equities bid on growth/AI enthusiasm, while gold rallies on rate-cut expectations and geopolitical hedging.
Key corporate headlines moving U.S. stocks today
Beyond the macro narrative, several company-specific stories helped shape flows:
- Tesla rose after a major legal development: Reuters reported the Delaware Supreme Court restored Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package, helping lift the stock. [21]
- Warner Bros. Discovery gained after Reuters reported Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison agreed to provide a personal guarantee of $40.4 billion of equity financing tied to a Paramount Skydance offer to acquire the company; Reuters said Paramount also rose on the news. [22]
- Clearwater Analytics rallied after a reported go-private deal valued around $8.4 billion including debt, led by private equity firms, per Reuters. [23]
- Uber and Lyft both advanced after announcing plans to bring robotaxi services to London next year, according to AP. [24]
What “Santa Claus rally” talk means this week—and why it matters now
With December 22 marking the final full week of the year, traders are increasingly focused on the classic “Santa Claus rally” window.
Reuters pointed out that the Santa Claus rally is often defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of January, and cited Stock Trader’s Almanac data showing the S&P 500 has averaged about a 1.3% gain in that period since 1950. Reuters also noted that, this year, that window begins Wednesday and runs through January 5. [25]
In practical terms, “Santa rally” conversations can become self-reinforcing in thin markets:
- Portfolio managers chase performance into year-end
- Systematic funds adjust exposure as volatility drops
- Lower liquidity can amplify upward drift—or sharp pullbacks on surprise headlines
The Fed and 2026 outlook: where rate expectations are landing
For equity investors, the big question under the surface is whether easing expectations are justified—or whether markets are getting ahead of themselves again.
Schwab’s market commentary said the current Fed target range is 3.5% to 3.75%, and noted the Fed’s own projections imply only one cut in 2026, while futures markets have priced in a higher probability of cuts later in the spring. [26]
On the macro “crowd forecast” side, Axios reported its Macro Consensus survey (about 500 respondents) showed expectations for:
- Unemployment at 5% by end-2026
- GDP growth around 1.9%
- Inflation around 3.1%
- A year-end Fed target rate around 3.25% (implying one to two cuts)
- 10-year yield around 4.05% by end-2026 [27]
These are not official projections—but they illustrate the gap markets will be navigating in 2026: slowing labor conditions vs. resilient output, and the open debate over how quickly the Fed can return policy toward “neutral.”
What to watch next: holiday calendar + data catalysts
Even in a “quiet” holiday week, a few scheduled releases can still move stocks—especially because liquidity is thinner.
Reuters highlighted that investors are watching this week’s economic data, including a preliminary reading of third-quarter GDP, consumer confidence, and weekly jobless claims, for clues on growth momentum and the policy path. [28]
Also important for logistics: Reuters said U.S. markets close early at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday and are closed Thursday for Christmas—conditions that can magnify market reactions when headlines hit. [29]
Bottom line: U.S. stocks are leaning bullish into year-end—but thin markets cut both ways
The U.S. stock market today delivered a familiar late-December setup: indexes rising toward record levels, volatility sliding, and leadership rotating back into AI and semiconductors—all as liquidity fades into the holidays. [30]
The bullish case in the near term is straightforward:
- tech rebound still has traction,
- volatility is low,
- “Santa rally” seasonality is in play,
- and the market is treating upcoming data as a potential confirmation of easing momentum. [31]
But the risk case is also clear:
- thin liquidity can turn small shocks into big moves,
- geopolitics is visibly impacting oil and safe havens,
- and 2026’s key debate—how fast the Fed can cut without reigniting inflation—remains unresolved. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.nuveen.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. apnews.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.schwab.com, 27. www.axios.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
