NEW YORK — Dec. 23, 2025 (5:02 p.m. ET) — Wall Street’s year-end grind delivered another milestone Tuesday: the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record, lifted by a rebound in growth and AI-linked mega caps after stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data pushed Treasury yields higher and forced investors to re-think near-term Federal Reserve rate-cut odds. [1]
The headline finish, however, hid a more complicated market under the surface. Most stocks in the S&P 500 fell, small caps lagged, and new data showed consumers turning more uneasy about jobs and income—exactly the kind of mixed macro picture that can keep markets choppy heading into a thinly traded holiday stretch. [2]
Stock market close: S&P 500 record, Nasdaq higher, Dow edges up
By the closing bell, the major U.S. indexes finished higher—again—led by tech-heavy benchmarks:
- S&P 500:6,909.79 (+0.46%) — new record close [3]
- Nasdaq Composite:23,561.84 (+0.57%) [4]
- Dow Jones Industrial Average:48,442.41 (+0.16%) [5]
- Russell 2000 (small caps):2,541.12 (-0.7%) [6]
The divergence is notable: while mega caps pushed the biggest indexes higher, breadth was weaker, with decliners beating advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, according to Reuters. [7]
Why stocks rose today: GDP shock + “growth beats value” trade returns
The day’s biggest catalyst was a delayed but market-moving economic print: U.S. third-quarter GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate, well above economists’ expectations (3.3% in a Reuters poll). [8]
That number mattered for two reasons:
- It reinforced a “strong economy” narrative—even as many investors expect slower momentum later. [9]
- It pushed yields up and dialed back confidence in a near-term Fed cut, with Reuters noting markets priced a smaller chance of a January move. [10]
In the equity market, the initial response looked like a familiar 2025 pattern: growth outperformed value. Reuters reported the S&P 500 growth index rose 0.8% while the value index was largely unchanged. [11]
The AI trade is still the market’s engine—despite “bubble” nerves
The S&P 500’s record came as AI- and mega-cap-linked names rebounded from last week’s valuation jitters, when investors worried about whether massive AI infrastructure spending will translate into profit growth quickly enough. [12]
On Tuesday, the megacap bid was clear:
- Nvidia gained about 3%, a major driver of the index’s advance. [13]
- Amazon, Alphabet, and Broadcom each rose more than 1%, according to Reuters. [14]
This “top-heavy” dynamic also explains why the S&P 500 could reach a record even as a majority of its components declined—a point highlighted in coverage of the day’s close. [15]
Notable stock movers: Novo Nordisk pops; ServiceNow dips on deal; copper lifts miners
Beyond big tech, several single-stock stories cut through the macro noise:
Novo Nordisk surged about 7% after U.S. regulators approved a pill version of Wegovy, expanding the obesity-treatment battlefield and giving markets fresh reason to reprice growth in weight-loss therapies. [16]
ServiceNow fell about 1.5% after agreeing to buy cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion in cash, a deal investors digested in the context of AI-driven security spending and consolidation. [17]
Freeport-McMoRan jumped roughly 2.5% as copper hit record highs, helping lift miners and materials tied to electrification and AI data-center buildouts. [18]
Bonds, dollar, commodities: yields firm, dollar softer, gold and silver hit records
Cross-asset signals on Dec. 23 underscored how “strong growth” can complicate the Fed outlook.
Treasury yields: The benchmark 10-year yield hovered around 4.17% while the 2-year yield rose to roughly 3.53%, reflecting a reassessment of rate-cut timing after the GDP surprise. [19]
U.S. dollar: The dollar index dipped (around 97.97 in Reuters’ reporting) as markets balanced strong U.S. data against shifting policy expectations and major FX moves elsewhere—particularly the Japanese yen. [20]
Gold and silver: Reuters reported gold, silver, and platinum touched record highs, with silver breaking above $70/oz in the session. [21]
Oil: Crude prices ended higher, with Brent settling near $62.38 and WTI near $58.38, as traders weighed robust U.S. growth against supply-risk headlines involving Venezuela and Russia. [22]
The macro picture: booming Q3 GDP meets fading confidence and sticky inflation
Tuesday’s data dump didn’t tell a single, clean story—it presented a tug-of-war:
GDP: growth beat forecasts, driven by consumers and trade
Reuters reported that Q3 growth was powered by consumer spending (3.5% pace) and rising exports, while only inventories and housing-related activity dragged. [23]
Inflation inside GDP: still a problem for policymakers
The GDP report’s inflation details were less comforting:
- PCE price index rose at a 2.8% rate (up from 2.1% in Q2). [24]
- A broader inflation gauge, the price index for gross domestic purchases, rose at a 3.4% rate. [25]
That combination—fast growth and firmer inflation—helps explain why investors and economists have been cautious about assuming the Fed can keep cutting quickly.
Consumer confidence: households are getting nervous again
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 89.1, undershooting forecasts, with Reuters noting worsening anxiety about jobs and income. The same report showed a present situation reading of 116.8 and expectations at 70.7—a split that often signals concern about the road ahead even if current conditions remain tolerable. [26]
Fed outlook: rate cuts happened in 2025—now the market wants clarity for 2026
In 2025, the Fed has already cut rates multiple times, and global central banks broadly moved into easing mode. Reuters described 2025 as the biggest easing push in over a decade, with major central banks delivering deep cumulative reductions. [27]
But Tuesday’s U.S. data reminded investors that the next phase may be less straightforward:
- Reuters reported the GDP surprise reduced expectations for a January cut. [28]
- The Fed’s benchmark rate sits in the 3.50%–3.75% range, and policymakers have signaled they want clearer evidence on inflation and the labor market before moving aggressively again. [29]
In other words: the market may still like the idea of lower rates in 2026, but it’s going to demand proof.
2026 forecasts and market strategy: “boring, normal” returns—and a rotation watch
With the S&P 500 at record territory and 2025 nearing its finish, the conversation is rapidly shifting from “what happened today?” to “what leads next year?”
One clear theme emerging in Dec. 23 commentary: the market may broaden beyond mega-cap tech.
Investopedia reported that Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods expects the S&P 500 to rise about 3%–5% in 2026, ending in the “7,200s,” and sees industrials, transports, and financials as potential leaders if mega caps “pause.” [30]
Separately, Reuters highlighted that retail investor flows hit record territory in 2025, with individuals becoming a major force that “buys the dip” and could remain influential into 2026—though analysts expect more diversification ahead. [31]
The practical takeaway for investors following the “US stock market today” headlines: watch leadership, not just index levels. If the S&P keeps rising while breadth stays narrow, volatility can flare quickly when the biggest names wobble.
What happens next: holiday schedule, thin trading, and the “Santa Claus rally” window
Markets now enter a stretch where liquidity can dry up fast, amplifying moves on relatively little news.
- Reuters noted trading volumes were light Tuesday, with total U.S. share volume below the recent average. [32]
- The NYSE and Nasdaq will close early Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and remain closed Thursday for Christmas, a setup that often makes price action more “headline-sensitive.” [33]
- Reuters also noted that the market’s “Santa Claus rally” period begins Wednesday and runs through Jan. 5, a seasonal window closely watched by traders. [34]
Key items on the near-term calendar include weekly jobless claims on Wednesday, a data point investors still treat as a real-time read on labor-market cooling. [35]
Bottom line for investors watching the US stock market today
The S&P 500’s record close on Dec. 23, 2025 wasn’t just another “stocks up” day—it was a reminder that markets can celebrate growth and fear it at the same time.
- Strong GDP revived the growth trade and powered megacaps. [36]
- Confidence data and inflation details reinforced the Fed’s dilemma. [37]
- As 2026 forecasts roll in, strategists are increasingly focused on rotation, breadth, and earnings durability, not just whether the index can print another high. [38]
If you want, I can rewrite this in a stricter wire-style format (shorter sentences, faster scans) or tailor it for a finance blog voice—without changing any facts.
References
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