NEW YORK — Updated 10:32 a.m. ET, Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Wall Street is spending Christmas Eve in “wait-and-see” mode — but with a notable milestone underneath the calm. By late morning, U.S. stocks were hovering near record levels in thin holiday trading, with the S&P 500 briefly setting a fresh intraday record as investors weighed a cooling-but-still-stable labor picture, expectations for 2026 rate cuts, and year-end positioning in megacap technology and AI-linked names. Reuters
US stock market now: where the major indexes stand
With many institutional desks running light ahead of Christmas, price action has been choppy but restrained — the kind of tape where single-stock headlines can move more than macro trends.
As of 10:12 a.m. ET (latest widely published snapshot):
- Dow Jones Industrial Average:+96.79 (+0.2%) to 48,539.20
- S&P 500:+5.91 (+0.1%) to 6,915.70
- Nasdaq Composite:-7.56 (down <0.1%) to 23,554.29 Nasdaq
Even with modest moves, the market’s tone remains “risk-on with a seatbelt”: the S&P 500 notched a new intraday record at 6,920.88, edging past its prior peak from late October, as investors rotated back into heavyweight AI names and maintained bets that the Federal Reserve can cut again next year if the labor market continues to cool. Reuters
Why trading is quieter than usual: Christmas Eve early close
Today’s muted volume isn’t just a vibe — it’s structural. U.S. equity markets are running a holiday-shortened session, which tends to compress liquidity and amplify headline-driven moves.
- NYSE and Nasdaq equity markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET today (Dec. 24). New York Stock Exchange
- Markets are closed Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day). Nasdaq
- Bond markets are widely expected to close early at 2:00 p.m. ET, consistent with industry recommendations. SIFMA
This “half-day tape” often produces a market that looks calm on the surface, but can react sharply to a surprise corporate headline — especially in widely held names.
The key drivers at 10:32 a.m.: jobs data, Fed expectations, and a record-level backdrop
1) Jobless claims: layoffs stay low, but “no hire, no fire” persists
This morning’s primary economic catalyst was weekly unemployment data. Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000, down 10,000 from the prior week, and released a day early due to the holiday. Economists cited in the report described the labor market as stable but sluggish — fewer layoffs, yet still not a hiring boom. Reuters
At the same time, continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, a detail that supports the narrative that people may be taking longer to land new roles — a dynamic that can matter for rate policy in 2026. Reuters
2) The Fed outlook: markets leaning toward “hold in January”
While today’s data didn’t dramatically shift rate expectations, the policy debate continues to shape the market’s ceiling and floor. Investors are broadly expecting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its January meeting, according to reporting on today’s session. AP News
The Fed cut its benchmark rate earlier this month by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range, but signaled it may not be in a hurry to reduce borrowing costs further without clearer evidence on inflation and labor conditions. Reuters
3) Strong growth data meets softer sentiment
The market is also digesting a “strong growth, shakier confidence” combination:
- The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 4.3% rate in Q3 2025, according to the BEA’s initial estimate, which was released later than usual due to earlier government shutdown-related disruptions. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Consumer confidence has weakened: the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December (from 92.9 in November), with the Present Situation Index dropping sharply while expectations remained subdued. The Conference Board
For equity investors, that mix often translates into a tug-of-war: growth supports earnings, but softening confidence raises questions about how long consumers can keep spending at a strong clip.
Sector check: leadership is narrow, and energy is lagging
With holiday volume thin, sector performance has been more about relative positioning than big rotations. In early trading, healthcare was among the leaders while energy lagged, according to market reporting from the session. Reuters
Another sign of the day’s “small moves, selective pain”: gold-related stocks slipped, as gold pulled back from recent highs. Nasdaq
Stocks making the biggest moves today
Even on a quiet morning, a few headline-driven moves are standing out — and they offer a snapshot of what investors are rewarding right now: credible M&A, insider confidence signals, and competitive positioning in AI and chip manufacturing.
Nike: pop on a high-profile insider buy narrative
Nike shares jumped after a filing showed Apple CEO Tim Cook — Nike’s lead independent director — bought roughly $3 million in Nike shares, a move investors interpreted as a vote of confidence as the company works through its turnaround and China demand questions. Reuters
Intel vs. Nvidia: manufacturing ambitions questioned
Intel slid after reporting indicated Nvidia halted certain tests related to manufacturing on Intel’s 18A chipmaking node — a development closely watched because Intel’s foundry ambitions are a cornerstone of its longer-term strategy. Reuters
Dynavax: M&A surge after Sanofi deal
Dynavax soared after Sanofi agreed to acquire the vaccine maker for about $2.2 billion, paying $15.50 per share in cash — a substantial premium that lifted the stock sharply. The deal gives Sanofi access to Dynavax’s approved hepatitis B vaccine and adds pipeline optionality. Reuters
Other notable premarket movers investors are tracking
Beyond the headlines above, market roundups also flagged notable moves in names like UiPath (index-inclusion catalyst), Tesla, and AMC, underscoring how, in a low-volume session, “event stocks” can attract outsized attention. Barron’s
The “Santa Claus rally” watch: why investors care right now
This week isn’t just about holiday hours — it’s also about seasonality.
Wall Street is entering the window commonly called the “Santa Claus rally,” typically defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of January. Reporting on today’s session notes that this year’s window begins today and runs through January 5. Reuters
That seasonal pattern matters because it intersects with:
- year-end portfolio rebalancing,
- tax-related selling (or the absence of it),
- and institutional “window dressing” in winners.
But traders also caution that holiday seasonality doesn’t override the basics: thin liquidity can make the market look stronger (or weaker) than it really is.
Volatility check: the market’s “fear gauge” is unusually subdued
One reason the market can drift near records without drama: implied volatility is low. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has been hovering near its lowest levels since December 2024, signaling that options markets are not pricing in large near-term swings — at least for now. Reuters
Low volatility can be a confidence signal, but it can also be a warning light: in thin holiday trading, it may not take much of a shock to reprice risk quickly.
Forward-looking forecasts and analysis for 2026: optimism, but with sharper caveats
While today’s trading is subdued, the forward debate is getting louder: what does 2026 look like after another strong year for U.S. equities?
Wall Street’s base case: gains can continue, but returns may be more modest
A broad survey of strategist outlooks points to expectations for another positive year in 2026, though many forecasts call for more moderate upside and ongoing volatility — especially if the AI trade remains crowded and valuations stay elevated. Investopedia
One widely cited benchmark: LPL Financial’s analysis found an average 2026 year-end S&P 500 target of 7,269, implying mid-single-digit upside from recent record closes. Investopedia
AI: still the engine — and the main source of anxiety
Strategists remain divided on whether AI-linked stocks are in a durable earnings-driven cycle or drifting into bubble-like behavior again. Today’s intraday record in the S&P 500 was explicitly linked to renewed appetite for AI-heavyweights and expectations of additional Fed easing next year. Reuters
Macro forecasts: growth supportive, but the policy mix matters
Global macro notes published today also reflect a still-constructive baseline:
- Reuters reporting cited strategists at Citi staying constructive on equities, though expecting bigger performance dispersion across sectors and themes. Reuters
- The same reporting highlighted expectations at Goldman Sachs for U.S. growth around 2.6% in 2026 (above some consensus estimates). Reuters
Seasonality and 7,000 talk: the next psychological level
With the S&P 500 already printing fresh highs, some market commentary is increasingly focused on psychological milestones and whether a late-year tailwind can push the benchmark higher into January. One holiday-hours roundup noted the “Santa Claus rally” has often delivered modest average gains over recent decades, while emphasizing that results vary — especially for tech-heavy indexes. Barron’s
What to watch next after today’s early close
With U.S. markets shutting early today and closed tomorrow, the next meaningful catalysts often come from the calendar turning:
- Friday, Dec. 26: markets reopen for a full session, but volume can remain thin.
- Early January: attention typically shifts quickly to the first major 2026 economic releases and the next phase of Fed expectations.
- Earnings season ahead: leadership trends (AI megacaps vs. broader market) will be tested by forward guidance.
For now, the market’s message at 10:32 a.m. is straightforward: records are being approached — and even broken — but conviction is muted in a shortened, low-liquidity session. Reuters
