U.S. stock futures were modestly lower in early premarket trading Tuesday, as investors brace for an unusually consequential batch of “catch-up” economic data after the 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted key releases. The day’s main event is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ delayed Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with attention also turning to a disrupted inflation pipeline ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index report. [1]
The backdrop: markets are trying to navigate a late-year mix of cooling labor signals, uneven inflation visibility, and renewed nerves about pricey AI-linked stocks, just days after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and flagged caution about the path into 2026. [2]
Stock futures today: where the market stands at 5 a.m. premarket
As of roughly 5:00 a.m. ET (latest quotes shortly after 4:20 a.m. ET), U.S. index futures were in the red:
- Dow Jones futures: 48,360, down 101 points (-0.21%)
- S&P 500 futures: 6,802.75, down 20.25 points (-0.30%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,978, down 115.25 points (-0.46%) [3]
Earlier in the premarket, the tone looked shakier—one market wrap noted deeper early declines (including a roughly 1% drop in Nasdaq 100 futures) before futures pared losses. [4]
Cross-asset signals leaned “risk-off” into the open. Oil and precious metals were lower in premarket quotes, while the dollar was soft versus major peers—an important backdrop for rate-sensitive growth stocks and multinationals. [5]
Why this matters for the open: In a market already sensitive to any repricing of interest-rate expectations, the combination of a high-impact jobs report and incomplete economic time series is amplifying uncertainty—and that tends to show up first in tech and other long-duration equities. [6]
The big catalyst: the jobs report is back—sort of
The BLS Employment Situation report for November is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET today (Dec. 16). [7]
But this release is not a “normal” jobs day.
What’s different this time
Because the shutdown disrupted the household survey (the data used to calculate the unemployment rate and a wide range of labor-force details), the government is publishing a delayed report that includes:
- November’s full report, and
- a partial October update using the establishment survey (payrolls), while
- October’s unemployment rate will not be published—creating the first gap in that series since tracking began in 1948, according to Reuters. [8]
Beyond the missing October jobless rate, other household-based measures (participation rate, demographics, part-time for economic reasons, duration of unemployment, and more) are also disrupted for October, complicating “soft landing vs. hard landing” interpretations.
What economists expect
Expectations vary slightly by survey, but the direction of travel is similar: sluggish hiring.
- A Reuters survey cited in multiple reports points to about +50,000 jobs for November and an unemployment rate around 4.4%.
- An AP/FactSet preview expects about +40,000 jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.4%.
Reuters also notes October payrolls may show a decline linked to federal workforce reductions tied to buyouts, which could make the October/November combined narrative look messier than a standard two-month trendline.
How Wall Street may react
For markets, the jobs report is less about one headline number and more about the rates-and-growth math:
- A stronger-than-expected payrolls or hotter wage signal can push yields up—and that often pressures richly valued, rate-sensitive tech.
- A weaker report can boost rate-cut expectations, but it can also trigger a “growth scare” risk-off move if investors interpret it as genuine deterioration.
Adding to the volatility risk: Reuters flagged that the shutdown prevented collection of key labor-market metrics, which can make the data harder to compare with prior months and harder for traders to “price cleanly.”
CPI this week: inflation data comes with gaps and caveats
The other marquee macro catalyst arrives Thursday: November CPI is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 18, per the BLS release calendar.
However, this is not a normal inflation setup either.
- The BLS canceled October CPI because shutdown conditions made retroactive collection impossible.
- Reuters reports that November CPI will include only partial October figures, and some standard one-month comparisons may be omitted where October data are missing—creating quirks for traders who rely on month-over-month momentum.
Why this matters for stocks: when inflation visibility is impaired, markets tend to place more weight on market-based indicators (Treasury yields, the dollar, and inflation expectations) and less on any single print—often increasing day-to-day volatility.
Fed outlook: rate cuts happened—now the debate shifts to 2026
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps last week, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, while emphasizing ongoing evaluation of incoming data.
But the market is wrestling with a key tension highlighted in Reuters reporting: the Fed’s projections imply a more cautious path, while traders have been pricing a faster easing cycle—and that spread can tighten abruptly when jobs or inflation surprise.
One concrete marker this morning: Reuters notes Fed funds futures implying about a 75.6% probability of a hold at the Jan. 28 Fed meeting (per CME’s FedWatch tool cited by Reuters).
Bonds are sending a louder signal
A separate Reuters analysis argues that U.S. Treasuries are “rebuilding risk premia” into 2026, pointing to a rising term premium and an uneasy market debate about future Fed leadership and the perceived independence of monetary policy.
For equity investors, that matters because higher long-term risk premia can compress valuation multiples—especially in mega-cap growth where future cash flows are discounted more heavily.
AI and big tech: the market’s favorite trade is under scrutiny again
The “AI trade” remains central to the U.S. equity narrative, but it’s also a source of fragility right now.
One early-morning market briefing highlighted lingering concerns about the sustainability of the AI boom after recent quarterly reports from AI-exposed companies (including Broadcom and Oracle) failed to meet the market’s most optimistic expectations.
This is important for today’s tape because:
- The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are disproportionately driven by a small set of mega-cap and AI-linked names.
- If yields rise on jobs data, long-duration growth tends to be “first to feel it,” a point echoed in Reuters market commentary about tech being the first domino in risk-off moves.
Company and market-structure headlines moving the premarket conversation
Even on a macro-heavy morning, several corporate and structural stories are in focus:
Nasdaq pushes toward longer trading hours
Nasdaq is seeking regulatory clearance to expand trading hours from 16 to 23 hours a day, five days a week, a step toward the broader industry push for near 24/7 markets (with clearing infrastructure also evolving).
The story matters beyond the exchange itself: longer hours can reshape liquidity patterns, volatility dynamics, and how global investors react to news outside standard U.S. sessions.
PayPal’s bank charter filing
PayPal filed to establish a U.S. bank (an industrial loan company), positioning it to expand lending capabilities and reduce reliance on third parties, according to Reuters.
iRobot bankruptcy
Roomba maker iRobot filed for Chapter 11 protection and is pursuing a buyout by its primary manufacturer, Reuters reported—another reminder that single-stock volatility can remain extreme even when the broader indexes are near highs.
Earnings to watch: Lennar after the close
Homebuilder Lennar is scheduled to release earnings after the market closes today (Dec. 16), with an earnings call set for Dec. 17, according to the company.
With mortgage rates and affordability still central to housing sentiment, any margin or demand commentary can spill into the broader housing complex—often treated as a real-economy proxy by macro-focused investors.
What top strategists are forecasting for 2026 (and why it matters today)
As the last full trading week of 2025 unfolds, Wall Street’s 2026 outlook is becoming a daily catalyst in its own right—particularly because positioning and “year-end rebalancing” can magnify moves in thin liquidity.
Two prominent forecasts out today show how wide the debate remains:
- Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian sees the S&P 500 ending 2026 around 7,100 (modest upside), warning that high-valuation AI “buy-the-dream” names could hit an air pocket and that liquidity may worsen over the next year.
- By contrast, Citigroup has set a 7,700 year-end 2026 target for the S&P 500, citing earnings strength and continued AI momentum—while also acknowledging volatility risks as the bull market matures.
Why include 2026 targets in a “stock market today” story? Because they influence real behavior right now: institutional investors use these frameworks to justify sector rotation, multiple expansion or compression assumptions, and whether to lean into or fade the recent wobble in mega-cap tech.
The bottom line for the U.S. stock market today
At 5 a.m. ET, the premarket setup is straightforward but tense: futures are modestly lower, and today’s direction likely hinges on whether the delayed jobs release reinforces a “soft landing” narrative—or forces a fresh repricing of rates, growth, and AI-heavy valuations.
Key moments to watch:
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Employment Situation (November)
- Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI (November), with noted data gaps
- All day: Treasury yields, the dollar, and mega-cap tech—the levers most likely to transmit the data shock into index performance.
References
1. www.bls.gov, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. markets.businessinsider.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. markets.businessinsider.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.bls.gov, 8. www.reuters.com
