NEW YORK — 9:00 a.m. ET — U.S. stock futures were higher in premarket trading Monday as investors attempted to stabilize sentiment after last week’s tech-led pullback, with the market turning its attention to a packed slate of economic releases and fresh headlines tied to the Federal Reserve’s future leadership. [1]
With Wall Street entering the final full trading week of 2025, the next several sessions are set up as a tug-of-war: dip-buying in bruised AI names versus growing unease over valuations, debt-funded capex, and how quickly rate cuts could arrive in 2026. [2]
Premarket snapshot: Futures point up, but nerves linger
By mid-morning premarket, all three major U.S. index futures were in the green, signaling a potential rebound at the open after Friday’s declines. [3]
- S&P 500 futures were up roughly 0.4%–0.5% in early premarket trading. [4]
- Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.5%, tracking a modest tech recovery. [5]
- Dow futures were also higher by around 0.4%–0.5%, reflecting continued rotation and resilience outside mega-cap tech. [6]
Away from equities, the cross-asset tape underscored a “risk-on, but cautious” mood:
- Precious metals rose in the premarket, with gold and silver prices pushing higher again as investors kept one foot in safety. [7]
- Bitcoin steadied around the $90,000 area after a weekend dip below that level, according to Reuters’ market recap. [8]
The big test this week: Jobs data returns, inflation watch resumes
A key reason markets are treating Monday’s rebound as tentative is the calendar: a barrage of U.S. data is due over the coming days, and traders are positioning for numbers that could reshape expectations for rates in 2026. [9]
According to Reuters, Tuesday is expected to bring non-farm payrolls figures for November and October, with October’s report previously delayed by a government shutdown earlier in the quarter. [10]
That matters because the market’s “soft-landing” narrative has become increasingly sensitive to whether growth is cooling fast enough to justify rate cuts—without cooling so fast that earnings expectations begin to break. [11]
This morning’s data: Empire State Manufacturing flips back into contraction
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey delivered an early jolt:
- The headline general business conditions index fell to -3.9 in December, a sharp drop from November and a return to negative territory. [12]
- The New York Fed noted shipments declined modestly, while new orders were steady. [13]
- Notably, the future business conditions index rose to 35.7, the highest since January, suggesting firms became more optimistic about the next six months even as current activity softened. [14]
For investors, this is a classic “mixed macro” setup: softer current momentum can support the case for future rate cuts, but weak patches in activity also raise questions about how durable 2026 earnings growth will be. [15]
Fed watch: Leadership headlines add a political layer to rate expectations
Beyond data, traders are also digesting a developing Washington storyline: President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal he has narrowed his search for the next Fed chair to either former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, according to Reuters. [16]
Reuters reported that expectations for a more dovish chair have boosted rate-cut expectations for next year, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. [17]
Markets will also be watching public remarks from Fed officials today, including Fed Governor Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams, both described by Reuters as permanent voters and “on the dovish side.” [18]
The AI trade after last week’s rout: Stabilization, not victory
The premarket bounce comes after a rough end to last week in the AI complex—an area that has been central to the market’s multi-year leadership.
Reuters described a renewed shakeout tied to “debt-fueled” AI investment concerns and disappointing news around major AI-linked names. [19]
One potential counterweight Monday: Nvidia-related supply headlines.
Reuters reported that Nvidia told Chinese clients it is evaluating adding production capacity for its H200 AI chipsafter orders exceeded current output levels, following a policy shift that would allow exports of the H200 to China with a 25% fee collected on such sales. [20]
That said, Reuters also emphasized the uncertainties: Chinese authorities had not yet approved purchases, and internal discussions in China could include conditions designed to support domestic chip adoption. [21]
For markets, this is the defining nuance of the AI story entering 2026: demand may be robust, but the path from demand to profitable, defensible earnings can hinge on policy, supply constraints, and capex discipline.
Key premarket movers: iRobot collapses, ServiceNow slides, metals and “weed stocks” jump
Single-stock news was also driving sharp moves across the tape Monday.
iRobot: Chapter 11 filing sparks a steep selloff
iRobot—best known for the Roomba—filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and said it would go private through a deal that transfers ownership to Picea Robotics, its primary manufacturer, according to Reuters. [22]
The company cited intensifying competition from lower-priced rivals and the impact of U.S. tariffs on costs, Reuters reported. [23]
ServiceNow: Deal talk weighs on shares
ServiceNow traded lower after Reuters reported that it is in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity startup Armis in a deal that could be valued at as much as $7 billion, citing Bloomberg. [24]
Precious metals and miners: Safe-haven bid returns
Reuters said broader uncertainty pushed investors into precious metals, helping U.S.-listed miners—including large gold names—post gains in premarket trading. [25]
Cannabis stocks: Regulatory chatter fuels a pop
Reuters also noted that cannabis-related stocks rose after reports the U.S. could soon ease restrictions on marijuana. [26]
Market outlook: Wall Street’s 2026 targets are bullish—but volatility is the price
Even after periodic pullbacks, strategists are publishing optimistic roadmaps for next year. The most widely circulated fresh call Monday came from Citi.
Citigroup set a 2026 year-end target of 7,700 for the S&P 500, implying a gain from the index’s last close (as cited by Reuters). Citi also projected S&P 500 EPS of $320 next year, above the consensus estimate cited in the report, and outlined a bull-case of 8,300 and a bear-case of 5,700. [27]
Citi’s core argument: AI remains a key theme, but the market’s focus may shift from “AI enablers” to “AI adopters,”setting up a “winners vs. losers” dynamic—especially if valuations remain elevated. [28]
This framing fits Monday’s premarket tape: investors are still willing to buy risk, but leadership may broaden—and the market may punish companies that can’t convert AI spending into visible earnings power.
What to watch next today: 10 a.m. housing gauge, Fed speakers, then the week’s main events
For the rest of Monday, traders will stay focused on data and Fed messaging:
- 10:00 a.m. ET: NAHB housing market indicator (per Reuters’ daily events list). [29]
- Fed speakers: John Williams and Stephen Miran are scheduled to speak (per Reuters). [30]
Then attention accelerates into the week’s biggest potential catalysts:
- Tuesday: Nonfarm payrolls reports expected for November and October (per Reuters). [31]
- Central bank decisions and global rates: Reuters flagged a crowded central-bank calendar, while separate Reuters reporting highlighted expectations around a Bank of Japan rate move later this week. [32]
- U.S. Treasury supply: Reuters also pointed to a 20-year U.S. bond auction later this week as another event bond investors are monitoring. [33]
Bottom line for today’s open
As of 9:00 a.m. ET, the U.S. stock market setup is a familiar late-cycle mix: futures higher, leadership uncertain, and macro data back in the driver’s seat.
If the next wave of jobs and inflation numbers supports the “cooling but not collapsing” narrative, the market could extend Monday’s rebound. If not—especially if inflation proves sticky or growth cracks—investors may continue rotating away from the most crowded, most expensive parts of the AI trade and toward perceived value, defensives, or rate-sensitive sectors. [34]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. markets.businessinsider.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. markets.businessinsider.com, 4. markets.businessinsider.com, 5. markets.businessinsider.com, 6. markets.businessinsider.com, 7. markets.businessinsider.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.newyorkfed.org, 13. www.newyorkfed.org, 14. www.newyorkfed.org, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com
