NEW YORK — US stocks are kicking off the shortened Thanksgiving trading week on a positive note, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq out in front and the S&P 500 also firmly higher, as investors bet more heavily on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and crowd back into big technology and AI winners.
As of late morning on Monday, November 24, 2025, the S&P 500 is up roughly 1%, the Nasdaq Composite nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 0.3%, extending Friday’s rebound after a bruising stretch for US equities. [1]
1. Market Snapshot: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Today
Wall Street opened higher across the board:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: opened around 46,352, up about 0.2% (+106 points). [2]
- S&P 500: opened near 6,636, gaining about 0.5%. [3]
- Nasdaq Composite: opened around 22,482, up roughly 0.9%, and later accelerated to a gain of about 1.7–2% as large‑cap tech stocks rallied. [4]
AP and other outlets note that the S&P 500’s ~1% rise and Nasdaq’s stronger advance build on Friday’s roughly 1% gains, even though all three major indexes remain down for November following an AI‑driven sell‑off and concerns about economic data disruptions from the recent US government shutdown. [5]
Note: Intraday levels and percentages are approximate and may shift as trading continues.
2. Fed Rate-Cut Bets Drive the Mood
The main story behind Monday’s rally is a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve expectations:
- After New York Fed President John Williams said Friday there may be “room for a further adjustment” in rates “in the near term,” traders sharply increased bets on another cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. [6]
- The CME FedWatch tool and futures markets now put the odds of a quarter‑point cut in December broadly in the two‑thirds to three‑quarters range, up from roughly 40% a week ago. [7]
At the same time, Fed officials remain split:
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins has recently said she is leaning against a December cut, citing persistent inflation and limited fresh data. [8]
- Markets are now pricing not just a December move but multiple cuts into mid‑2026, while some economists warn traders may be over‑optimistic about how quickly inflation will fall. [9]
Data blackout complicates the Fed’s decision
The debate is complicated by the lingering effects of this autumn’s record US government shutdown, which forced agencies to cancel or delay key economic reports:
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October CPI release, and October jobs and retail sales data have also been delayed, leaving policymakers “flying blind” into the December meeting. [10]
- The Labor Department plans to fold missing October jobs data into the November report due December 16, afterthe Fed’s decision — a timing mismatch that raises the risk of a policy move based on incomplete information. [11]
That foggy backdrop helps explain why markets are cheering any hint of dovishness from the Fed, but also why volatility has picked up: expectations can swing quickly as each new speech or data point arrives.
3. AI & Mega‑Cap Tech: Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla Power the Rebound
Once again, big technology and AI‑linked names are setting the tone for the US stock market:
- Alphabet (Google parent) is one of the day’s star performers. AP reports its shares are up around 5% after a week of upbeat reaction to the company’s newly unveiled Gemini 3 AI model, making it the single largest positive contributor to the S&P 500’s gains this morning. [12]
- Nvidia, which triggered heavy volatility last week despite “blockbuster” earnings and guidance, is modestly higher (around +0.5–1%) as investors tentatively re‑enter AI hardware names after the recent shakeout. [13]
- Tesla is also rebounding, with shares up about 5% after CEO Elon Musk said the company expects eventually to build more AI chips than all other chipmakers combined, a comment that stoked renewed enthusiasm for Tesla’s AI ambitions. [14]
Last week, the Nasdaq fell about 2.7% and both the S&P 500 and Dow about 1.9% as investors questioned whether AI‑related valuations had run too far, too fast. [15] Monday’s action suggests some dip‑buying in megacap tech, but the backdrop remains fragile: several strategists warn that if economic data weaken further, even AI leaders could see more profit‑taking.
4. Healthcare Turmoil: Novo Nordisk Sinks on Alzheimer’s Drug Failure
One of the biggest single‑stock stories of the day is Novo Nordisk, a major component of global healthcare and a high‑profile obesity‑drug play:
- US‑listed shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) are down roughly 8–10% after the company said its Evoke phase 3 trials failed to show a statistically significant slowing of Alzheimer’s disease progression using semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy. [16]
- While the trial did improve certain biomarkers, it did not significantly slow cognitive decline, disappointing investors who had hoped semaglutide’s blockbuster success in obesity might translate into a new growth avenue in neurodegeneration. [17]
The news is rippling across healthcare:
- AP and Investopedia both report that US‑listed Novo shares are among Monday’s biggest decliners, tugging on the broader healthcare sector even as other names rally. [18]
- In contrast, Oscar Health, Centene and Molina Healthcare are sharply higher — gains of around 3–25% — after reports that the White House may seek a two‑year extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) subsidies, with some new eligibility limits. [19]
The mixed moves underscore how policy decisions and clinical trial outcomes can quickly reshape leadership within defensive sectors like healthcare.
5. Energy & Oil Services: A Quiet but Important Leadership Shift
Away from headline megacaps, oilfield services stocks have quietly become one of the best‑performing industry groups in Q4, even with crude prices under pressure.
A Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis published early Monday notes that: [20]
- The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up about 6–7% quarter‑to‑date as of November 20, while the S&P 500 had fallen nearly 2% over the same period.
- The rally has been broad‑based, with all but one of the 26 ETF constituents higher in the past three months, and about 20 of them posting 90‑day gains between 10% and 97%.
- Names like ProPetro (PUMP) have surged roughly 90% QTD, helped by deals such as a new unit providing power to large data centers — a sign of how energy infrastructure and AI computing demand are increasingly intertwined.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain soft:
- WTI crude is trading around $58 per barrel, roughly flat to slightly higher on the day, despite rising geopolitical tensions, as markets focus on growth worries and ample supply. [21]
This combination — services outperforming even as oil drifts — often signals improving pricing power and tight capacity in the oilfield services industry, and it could become a secondary leadership pocket if AI and megacap tech remain volatile.
6. Crypto, Bonds and the US Dollar: Bitcoin Stabilizes, Yields Ease
Monday’s risk‑on tone is mirrored in crypto and bond markets, though with some caution:
- Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, up from a weekend low below $83,500 but still far off its early October peak near $125,000. [22]
- Shares tied to digital assets — including MicroStrategy (MSTR), bitcoin miner Mara Holdings (MARA), and Coinbase (COIN) — are up roughly 2–3% in Monday trading and premarket action. [23]
On the rates side:
- The 10‑year US Treasury yield is hovering around 4.04%, near its lowest level in about a month after sliding last week as investors priced in more Fed easing. [24]
- The US dollar index is modestly softer against most major currencies, though the yen remains under pressure, near a 10‑month low, with traders watching for potential intervention by Japanese authorities. [25]
In commodities:
- Gold futures are trading just above $4,070 per ounce, slightly lower on the day but still elevated in historical terms. [26]
- Brent crude is around $62–63 per barrel, little changed, underscoring the tug‑of‑war between demand concerns and supply dynamics. [27]
The combination of easier yields, softening dollar, and stabilizing Bitcoin supports risk appetite but also reflects lingering uncertainty about growth and liquidity.
7. Other Notable Movers: M&A, Insurance and Food Distribution
Beyond the mega‑caps and macro trades, several individual stories are moving stocks today:
- US Foods Holdings (USFD) is up about 5–6% after the company and Performance Food Group (PFGC) called off merger talks and agreed to stop their information‑sharing process. PFGC shares are down around 3% in early trade as investors reassess its standalone path. [28]
- Health insurance and managed‑care names Oscar Health (OSCR), Centene (CNC) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) are rallying strongly (up roughly 3–25%) on the reports of a proposed extension of ACA subsidies, as noted earlier. [29]
- Various AI‑adjacent and chip‑related stocks — from Alphabet and Nvidia to smaller semiconductor names — are seeing short‑covering and bargain hunting after a week in which technology bore the brunt of selling pressure. [30]
These moves highlight how policy headlines, M&A updates and thematic flows (AI, weight‑loss drugs, crypto) continue to overshadow traditional earnings‑only narratives.
8. Global Markets: Asia and Europe Join the Rebound
Monday’s US gains are part of a broader, though uneven, global upswing:
- European equities opened higher and were modestly positive by midday, with the Stoxx 600 up about 0.1% as investors digested the late Friday bounce on Wall Street. [31]
- In Asia, markets were mixed but tilted higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped about 2%, helped by a 4–5% rally in Alibaba as investors responded to strong demand for its updated Qwen AI app and looked ahead to its upcoming earnings. [32]
Overseas, traders are wrestling with many of the same themes as in the US: AI valuations, Fed policy, dollar strength, and geopolitics — from Ukraine peace talks to Middle East tensions — all of which feed back into US risk sentiment.
9. The Week Ahead: Five Big Themes for Investors
With Thanksgiving on Thursday and a half‑day session on Friday, markets will be navigating a compressed calendar and thinner liquidity. Analysts point to several key themes likely to shape trading through the rest of the week: [33]
- Monetary Policy Uncertainty
- December rate‑cut odds have swung between about 30% and 75% over the past couple of weeks, reflecting deep divisions within the Fed and the impact of delayed data. Any fresh comments from policymakers could quickly jolt rate expectations and equities.
- Missing and Delayed Economic Data
- Because of the shutdown‑driven data backlog, October jobs, CPI and retail sales figures are still missing, and the Fed will likely make its December decision without a clean read on labor and inflation. This “information vacuum” raises the risk of policy missteps and market overreactions to each new release.
- Holiday Spending and the US Consumer
- The National Retail Federation expects a record 186.9 million shoppers between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with total holiday sales projected to top $1 trillion for the first time and Black Friday online sales alone forecast around $11.7 billion, up nearly 9% year‑on‑year. [34]
- At the same time, surveys suggest many households plan to spend the same or less than last year, signaling that consumer resilience remains fragile despite robust participation.
- Tech, AI and Cybersecurity Earnings
- Companies such as Zscaler, Alibaba, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise report results this week and will offer fresh clues on enterprise IT budgets, AI infrastructure spending and consumer demand into year‑end. [35]
- Thin Liquidity and Bond‑Market Swings
- With volumes typically falling ahead of Thanksgiving, even modest surprises in Fed commentary, inflation readings or earnings could spark outsized moves in Treasury yields and equity indexes, especially given the recent spike in volatility. [36]
10. What Today’s Moves May Mean for Investors
For now, Monday’s action looks like a relief rally, not a definitive turn:
- The Nasdaq’s leadership and strong showing from Alphabet and other AI plays suggest investors are still willing to embrace growth and thematic trades — but only after sharp pullbacks. [37]
- The strength in oil services, even as crude drifts, hints at under‑the‑radar sector rotation toward areas with improving earnings power and tight capacity. [38]
- Mixed signals in healthcare — Novo Nordisk’s fall versus managed‑care gains — highlight how idiosyncratic risks remain high.
If you’re following the market:
- Expect continued choppiness as the Fed debate evolves and delayed data trickle in.
- Be aware that thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate both rallies and sell‑offs.
- Many analysts emphasize diversification and a longer‑term horizon, rather than trying to trade every twist in AI, crypto or rate‑cut odds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional.
References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. talkmarkets.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. apnews.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. talkmarkets.com, 35. talkmarkets.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. apnews.com, 38. www.nasdaq.com
